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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

I'd rather go without 30C for this July as it just tempts fate and then next July could end up being "the overdue July without a 30C". 

Looking at the 00z and 06z, I think theres growing support for Summer to finally arrive, two months late. Bear in mind all arrivals into the UK must quarantine for two weeks so hopefully that includes the Azores. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

By this July’s standards this is a decent looking mean in approx 1 weeks time..god I love being proved right..but wait, I could be wrong..see how modest I am!!!!!:shok:770A827C-3FD5-4F5B-A53E-122B19EADF40.thumb.gif.0732095c89752dd0bec335986fffd85a.gifB2F7FE3D-C7E2-47FA-ACF2-5E644BB32692.thumb.gif.8efc210ef824a69149027d0eaf4b907d.gifC1D89B7B-C5E7-4645-964E-8B59B3FDBBB1.thumb.png.7e5846831bf6b779fd18921a667fd378.png32F98DC7-A12B-4CCF-9D08-53E0D299D26F.thumb.png.fbb3adf36bcdc4ca69f3a4c6a203e8dd.png

 

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

The GFS06Z idea of building a ridge over the top of a weakening trough has little support in the clusters - perhaps cluster 3 is most similar at D8

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072500_192.

However, the trend has been weakening trough, strengthening ridge to the east, which may help extend the hot snap slightly. Depends on the ridge getting established and forcing a negative tilt on the Atlantic trough. Hard to call. 

Definitely some encouragement that there may be more ridging events in the following week

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072500_360.

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

Oh jeez, wow, I was talking about plumes several days ago when the 500mb was having non of it!..fingers crossed we can squeeze out a plume from this generally poor July..and then hopefully august will deliver!

To be fair, the 500mb mean charts wont show a transitory plume, over a 5 days / 7 day period , the fact that theres been a slight re-adjustment is indeed a good sign.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Looks like Exeter now mentioned the much warmer conditions by late next week.. It looks to be brief with cooler more unsettled conditions following on later in the weekend.. Pretty much backed up by the ECM ens.. Hopefully something better again towards mid next month.. Hopefully plume 3..

graphe0_00_242_142___.png

graphe1_00_242_142___.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Hmmm, direct southerly anyone? UKMO at T144:

E371ED2A-85E6-4347-8A9A-1B8690537941.thumb.gif.d04052b82b03dd53cba45ce3ab833f05.gif243F3ED4-A6DE-4261-AAB8-43F6A25A105A.thumb.gif.b9591d2ca010baa309f10d3945dde56e.gif

Should bring the heat next couple of days, I would think...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

And on GFS too, but more importantly it goes on to produce a ridge from the Azores, T144, T168:

D6DB8AE9-DBE5-4AEF-91F6-0A3F187BFBD7.thumb.png.17780587a2144a03027ac59f29aedb7e.png1CF02F6C-A99F-43DC-A52E-9C97E44D43A0.thumb.png.f21d94f2e52bc549bd027050321b5c5d.png

Suddenly, from nowhere, we could be looking at the first decent August in years...

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

Is that a Kent Clipper already showing on the GFS? Not liking how the trough loses all power leading to such a weak plume, and hoping ECM 12z backs up its overnight run!

Edited by Lance M
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Gem

7A7BA889-A2B4-402E-9A4A-C4B96EC34FE6.png

4E777FE1-ABA6-47D5-81F2-A89F2C14ADD4.png
 

And then 

0B9AC884-A42D-4819-85DC-B0F65A328BFE.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM excellent for heat at T144:

0A9DB7E0-C662-48BB-88D3-30ADA2571E8B.thumb.png.2cd7e1a087852496bf7bbbc954997aea.png68FC4212-0F1C-4F98-9889-F2615A529B3E.thumb.png.d6c1d6585dc11f383b75fa603abe62ba.png

Longer term, the Azores Scandi link up is starting to look the form horse, GEM at T204:30F43364-7FEE-426F-9A38-68BA1E89C913.thumb.png.7f39283188442085cd134da88757e30a.png

Let’s see what the ECM has to say...

Edit: Mark beat me to it...

Perhaps some promising little trends this evening, Hopefully the  Ecm is great  

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Interesting from ukmo - looks to me like the trough could stall and disrupt in a SE direction after that - might delay a breakdown, but might also cut off the hottest air before it arrives. 

UW144-21.GIF?25-19

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

At the moment the plume is transitory, well most are, tbh!  JMA the latest model to brush the south with +20C uppers on the 12z, at T156:

0A1DC31F-AAE3-4E57-A2D4-7FFFC6E5D152.thumb.gif.30d6dc066e4b86d28a7883f4289211fb.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
2 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

Gem

7A7BA889-A2B4-402E-9A4A-C4B96EC34FE6.png

4E777FE1-ABA6-47D5-81F2-A89F2C14ADD4.png
 

And then 

0B9AC884-A42D-4819-85DC-B0F65A328BFE.png

 

1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:

Perhaps some promising little trends this evening, Hopefully the  Ecm is great  

This chart here adds some too +20c Uppers skirting the South Coast before this then reaching as far North as the Northern home counties on GEM1923826931_Screenshot_20200725-195834_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.8ea87f8192447b6eba182b131d994b9b.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

ECM is very disappointing. 1 hot day Friday before it breaks down on sat with Thundery showers and then very unsettled by day 10

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM is very disappointing. 1 hot day Friday before it breaks down on sat with Thundery showers and then very unsettled by day 10

Isn't that normal August though, the Atlantic normally dominates whole month

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Isn't that normal August though, the Atlantic normally dominates whole month

Only it doesn’t.

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