Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Djdazzle]

15 minutes ago, Zak M said:

This looks good for the SE

@216

   

Could perhaps be a thundery one too...

Back the pattern west a bit and we’d be in business there!

[Daniel*]

ECM 12z is horrifically wet for NW U.K. a significant deterioration is gathering momentum there.

[Singularity]

Perhaps in the ECM 12z we’re seeing some initial correction to account for the AAM ‘bounce’ as Tamara coined it yesterday.

Of course, just a little slowing of the trough doesn’t do us much good overall - warmer at times but at the heavy cost of a lot more rainfall.

So, we could do with further adjustments toward a slower trough that expends more of its energy to our west.

Or troughs - that one for Mon-Tue has undergone notable slowing as well, on the ECM run. UKMO is also slow with it, much as the 00z was.

GFS is quick, though, so I’m not hanging my hat on any possibilities with that one.

[Frosty.]

On the face of it, T+216 ECM 12z op looks summery doesn’t it?..but it doesn’t tell the true / full story and T+240 looks frankly autumnal but I’m not showing that chart!!..I will leave that to someone else!!!

Edited July 22, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Mark wheeler]

Hmmm Not bad in the grand scheme of things . 

[Kentspur]

57 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM 12z is horrifically wet for NW U.K. a significant deterioration is gathering momentum there.

Looks great down here in Kent. Amazing I left the North today 18c on the car thermometer cloudy and spots of rain got to Cambridge 23c Sunny then back home and its 26c on the car thermometer! Such a huge difference

[Man With Beard]

38 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Looks great down here in Kent. Amazing I left the North today 18c on the car thermometer cloudy and spots of rain got to Cambridge 23c Sunny then back home and its 26c on the car thermometer! Such a huge difference

It was really brought home to me on return a few days ago from a holiday in the north - deep green grass further north with sunshine rare, but very yellow grass in the south and lots of hot sunshine back in Portsmouth. 

Looking at the models, I suspect more of the same to come except the south joining in with the autumnal stuff on occasional days. 

ECM projected temps for that warmer day next Friday (which can normally be knocked up a couple of degrees in reality) : 24-27C in the SE, 20-24C for central + eastern England, 16-19C for north and west. Sums it up. 

[stodge]

Evening all

An uninspiring ECM 12Z. Just a chance for some warm air to transit the far SE at T+216 but that's wishful thinking at this stage and the end of July and into August maintain the cool and unsettled theme for many with a lot of rain for the far NW of Scotland (not unusual).

GFS 12Z OP also moderate - I imagine some will be pinning their hopes on a "plume" at T+372 - good luck with that. Control somewhat better as it finally breaks the Azores HP cell and sends it NE to the British Isles but that's far FI so we'll see.

Just seen GEM 12Z OP - well, yes.

[damianslaw]

One word to describe models 'pass' please..

[mb018538]

9 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

Hmmm Not bad in the grand scheme of things . 

How’s your sponsorship deal with NAVGEM treating you @Mark wheeler?

[mb018538]

GEM showing the plume set up again around next Friday/Saturday. 

There is also a little bit of GFS ensemble support:



One to watch isn what will otherwise be a fairly disappointing summer week for the UK.

[mb018538]

Well then...

[Frosty.]

Holy Mackerel Batman..this is a better ECM than last nights 12z!  ..I did mention something about plumes yesterday!

Edited July 23, 2020 by JON SNOW

[mountain shadow]

Where did that ECM come from??

Has Summer been saved from the jaws of defeat? Or is it a massive outlier?

[mb018538]

 

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Where did that ECM come from??

Has Summer been saved from the jaws of defeat? Or is it a massive outlier?

Bah humbug. Outlier sadly. Still - one to keep tabs on. The op run is higher res so could be on to something.

 

Edited July 23, 2020 by mb018538

[johnholmes]

Thursday 23 July

Ec-gfs and ec shows quite a change from the last ‘umpteen’ days but not gfs! EC has small +ve heights affecting the uk but to me it does not look very realistic, gfs does not show nor does noaa. Best wait and see if the others follow suite.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[SMU]

Interesting focal point for next week ( Thur > Fri / Sat ) Large heat dome impacting Western Europe > Battling with the jet that is displaced South-

As with the last plume a few weeks ago the initial modelling was to far south with the jet & ever so slowly the heat filtered further north in the models so that the south of the UK was impacted.

A noticable nudge North from the models today - although we need a couple hundred more miles of amplification to really get any benefit from it.

The 30c T2M line looks to run fairly close to the south at the end of next week - maybe the next 48-72 hours will see it incrementally nudge north.

Edited July 23, 2020 by Steve Murr

[Mike Poole]

ECM not alone, GEM has +20C uppers clipping the SE at T234.

[Methuselah]

GFS 00Z at T+207... I wonder how it'll develop, and what a TS remnant might send our way:

    

[summer blizzard]

Euro appears to throw the cat on the table at day 7 even if temporary.

GFS has a weaker pressure build due to the low over Scandinavia leaving slower and the low in the Atlantic approaching faster, thus we get one day of warm uppers before the front moves through. 

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Where did that ECM come from??

Has Summer been saved from the jaws of defeat? Or is it a massive outlier?

Its only transitory, not a pattern change and is probably rather amplified.

The outlook according to the noaa remains mobile and unsettled, but we could get a nice day here and there as ridges cross between systems , but with negative pressure anomaly over us, and a mean upper trough to our near northwest its not looking very dry for long.



 

[Man With Beard]

Clusters this morning show the opportunity again for a small ridge around D8/D9, but unlikely to hold back the Atlantic for long given the balance of clusters by D10

  

Longer term, the clusters continue to suggest the UK may get stuck between ridges, though the smaller clusters (3 and 4) provide small hope of ridges to the east being strong enough to hold the Atlantic back 

[Leo97t]

Most GFS 06z members are going for a brief plume around 31st July - perhaps 30C will be squeezed out after all

[Zak M]

For the first time in absolutely ages... I have woken up to a positive set of runs. 

The ECM and GEM are stonkers, ECM an outlier unfortunately but does show a trend of something plume-like...

This is the 00z ICON @180. Doesn't go any further but also shows the kind of setup you would see before a plume.

Edited July 23, 2020 by Zak M

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, Zak M said:

For the first time in absolutely ages... I have woken up to a positive set of runs. 

The ECM and GEM are stonkers, ECM an outlier unfortunately but does show a trend of something plume-like...

This is the 00z ICON @180. Doesn't go any further but also shows the kind of setup you would see before a plume.

Agreed Zak, I mentioned yesterday about catching a break from Atlantic dominance and enabling some plume potential, which mostly fell on deaf ears but whatever, I continue to believe the jet will buckle for a time and kinks in the isobars will bring at least some very warm / hot air to parts of the s / se..and possibly more of the u k will be involved?..time will reveal all!!!

Edited July 23, 2020 by JON SNOW