Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Zak M]

I guess you could also say that it's looking quite good on Wednesday at 2am, according to the 12z GEM at least:

[matt111]

33 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I guess you could also say that it's looking quite good on Wednesday at 2am, according to the 12z GEM at least:

Well it's showing no weather, so really it's just showing a continuation of what we've had lately. 

[mb018538]

GEM still fancies something a bit drier and warmer through the middle of next week.

GFS shows 1-2 inches of rainfall over the next 10 days in many areas, with northern and western areas generally taking most of the hit:



Make the most of any drier and brighter weather through this week, things will deteriorate for many through the weekend. 

[mb018538]

ECM also brings some warmer air in through the middle of next week - though surface temperatures aren't anything too special. Mid 20s at best.

[markw2680]

Every time I look in here it’s either doom n gloom or overly ex static about things that will change nearer the time. This is the uk and the weather looking at the models for the next week or so could be a whole lot worse. It’s nothing exceptional but it’s not all that bad, just standard uk summer weather imo. Obviously the further nw you go the more unsettled but again that’s pretty normal. We rarely get uk wide settled hot weather for long so just make the most of what we do get, good useable weather in the main

[danm]

8 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Every time I look in here it’s either doom n gloom or overly ex static about things that will change nearer the time. This is the uk and the weather looking at the models for the next week or so could be a whole lot worse. It’s nothing exceptional but it’s not all that bad, just standard uk summer weather imo. Obviously the further nw you go the more unsettled but again that’s pretty normal. We rarely get uk wide settled hot weather for long so just make the most of what we do get, good useable weather in the main

Yep absolutely. Important to remember the average July daily maxima's in the UK - 24c for London and 19c for Glasgow, just to give two locations in different parts of the country. I love seeing temperature records broken and proper heat, but mid 20's and sunny is still very pleasant. 

[Ice Day]

Better ECM this morning, Next weekends low doesn't look too threatening and after that we see the Azores pushing in (where have I read that before ).  Days 8 to 10 are looking very nice for the south of the UK with temps getting into the mid to high 20's.

     

The trend on the 850's is also heading in the right direction.

The GFS doesn't get the Azores as far north so consequently the warmth is more fleeting and confined further south.  So, in summary, more of the same but gradual improvements *maybe* just around the corner!?

Edited July 20, 2020 by Ice Day

[mb018538]

Can't say i'm overly surprised by the lack of posts!

Anyway - a smidgen of warmth on offer in the 7-10 day range on the 6z:

[Zak M]

FI as usual, but holy cow, this would be pretty amazing if it was to come off!

   

06z GFS on day 12 also sends a series of large thunderstorms (MCS basically) through England.

Edited July 20, 2020 by Zak M

[B87]

8 minutes ago, Zak M said:

FI as usual, but holy cow, this would be pretty amazing if it was to come off!

   

06z GFS on day 12 also sends a series of large thunderstorms (MCS basically) through England.

It's completely lost the plot. That would give what, 35c? In August?

[Scorcher]

You have to laugh at this chart- the Northern Hemisphere is exceptionally warm for the most part at the moment- yet virtually the coolest air in the whole hemisphere is close to or over the UK- including many areas of north of the Arctic Circle.

You could argue that we couldn't be any more unlucky right now. Even extremely cold places such as Novaya Zemyla which is well inside the Arctic Circle have noticeably warmer air than the UK at the moment.

Edited July 20, 2020 by Scorcher

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

You have to laugh at this chart- the Northern Hemisphere is exceptionally warm for the most part at the moment- yet virtually the coolest air in the whole hemisphere is close to or over the UK- including many areas of north of the Arctic Circle.

You could argue that we couldn't be any more unlucky right now. Even extremely cold places such as Novaya Zemyla which is well inside the Arctic Circle have noticeably warmer air than the UK at the moment.

That's a temperate oceanic climate for you. Our weather is essential the same throughout the year. 

[summer blizzard]

Models squabbling but the Euro now increases GLAAM more than the GFS.

In the near term a relatively poor next 8 days before this mornings models show more of a warmer N-S split. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

That's a temperate oceanic climate for you. Our weather is essential the same throughout the year. 

Don't agree with that at all.. 2010 big freeze.. 2013 freeze... 2018 Beast from the East.. 2018 one of the warmest driest Summers ever.. 2019 3 or 4 plume events! I think when the weather becomes stuck in a rut for a few weeks some seem to feel the climate is boring and never changes. 

Icon ends pretty unsettled but with perhaps a ridge building in closely after.. All of a sudden some scandy Heights appear to be emerging. 

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

That's a temperate oceanic climate for you. Our weather is essential the same throughout the year. 

I don't think it is though, I think it's simply bad luck. There are plenty of other coastal areas in the Northern Hemisphere that are doing much better than us right now.

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, MATT said:

Don't agree with that at all.. 2010 big freeze.. 2013 freeze... 2018 Beast from the East.. 2018 one of the warmest driest Summers ever.. 2019 3 or 4 plume events! I think when the weather becomes stuck in a rut for a few weeks some seem to feel the climate is boring and never changes. 

Icon ends pretty unsettled but with perhaps a ridge building in closely after.. All of a sudden some scandy Heights appear to be emerging. 

I said, essentially the same, not always the same.

Of course there are odd occasions where we get significant heat or cold, but unless the jet stream changes or the Atlantic moves, our weather will always be moderated by the big blue.

[Zak M]

GFS is still looking decent at the start of August...

[Guest]

Well there's a couple more decent days down here to look forward to before another really poor period in the summer of 2020. The previous two unsettled spells lasted 3weeks and then almost another 3weeks and with a Jet stream looking as though its going to be taking an extended trip south of the UK from later in the week it look like another lengthy unsettled spell to ne. By T+144, UKMO, GEM, ICON and GFS all have a southerly angled Jet with us under the influence of multiple lows and again its unquestionably a much poorer than average spell, anyone see's anything else I'd be staggered. Also again its another unsettled pattern the background signals didn't really point to a week ago and talk was of potentially something settling down towards the end of the month and start of August (not looked in much over the past few days so may have missed something). While I'm sure we'll get a slightly warmer spell I've given up on this summer, especially looking for anything plumey - must be 20plus years since I've seen a proper storm in August.

Even with two holidays booked now I'd still swap them for good weather in this country. 

[Frosty.]

Very slim pickings if it’s sustained settled weather you’re hoping for, it’s a very mixed outlook, changeable which is by definition unsettled sums it up but as I’m ever the optimist, here’s the kind of chart that would bring much rejoicing at the turn of the month if it verified!

 

Edited July 20, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Evening thunder]

4 hours ago, Scorcher said:

You have to laugh at this chart- the Northern Hemisphere is exceptionally warm for the most part at the moment- yet virtually the coolest air in the whole hemisphere is close to or over the UK- including many areas of north of the Arctic Circle.

You could argue that we couldn't be any more unlucky right now. Even extremely cold places such as Novaya Zemyla which is well inside the Arctic Circle have noticeably warmer air than the UK at the moment.

Almost posted yesterday, that 850hpa temperatures looked warmer over the North Pole than the UK for today.. then I thought I'd better not.

Nice day at the surface down here though, 21-22C and mostly sunny.

[Zak M]

Struggling to find things to post on here, so have this...

      

[summer blizzard]

The morning Euro giveth, the evening Euro taketh away.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The morning Euro giveth, the evening Euro taketh away.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

And hopefully the Euro will be giving us something back when the 46 rolls in an hour... Longer term anyway. 

[Mapantz]

Several posts moved.

If you want to discuss previous Augusts or chat in general about Summer, please do so in this thread.

Thanks. 

[johnholmes]

3 hours ago, Alderc said:

Well there's a couple more decent days down here to look forward to before another really poor period in the summer of 2020. The previous two unsettled spells lasted 3weeks and then almost another 3weeks and with a Jet stream looking as though its going to be taking an extended trip south of the UK from later in the week it look like another lengthy unsettled spell to ne. By T+144, UKMO, GEM, ICON and GFS all have a southerly angled Jet with us under the influence of multiple lows and again its unquestionably a much poorer than average spell, anyone see's anything else I'd be staggered. Also again its another unsettled pattern the background signals didn't really point to a week ago and talk was of potentially something settling down towards the end of the month and start of August (not looked in much over the past few days so may have missed something). While I'm sure we'll get a slightly warmer spell I've given up on this summer, especially looking for anything plumey - must be 20plus years since I've seen a proper storm in August.

Even with two holidays booked now I'd still swap them for good weather in this country. 

There has been no sign on the 500 mb anomaly charts for a good many days of any positive change, or indeed any marked change in wavelengths etc. No signal today either in the 6-10 or the NOAA 8-14 day outlooks. I'll post more tomorrow along with the latest charts.