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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I've just shaved ma heid -- a splendid Covid-19. Which means: image.thumb.png.d6a0bc2f881e10e16c0df0d51f514e2a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Where there’s life there’s hope!

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

hgt300.pnghgt300.png

Hmm - just as I was starting to consider a strong flat jet stream as probable, the 12z runs made considerable adjustments. Especially ECM with that leading trough undergoing disruption instead of powering straight on in across the UK.

Nice trend - but will it hold through the weekend?

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
12 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Again - the less said about the CFS the better as well.

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It forecast a very strong and persistent ridge over the UK/scandi for mid to late July. That turned out well....

You are just reading the model wrongly.

It’s the Contrary Forecasting System: look at its runs then forecast the exact opposite and you’ll be quids in.

(P.S. ECM looks decent for the south/east quadrant)

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Yet another set of runs today with much more colder than normal temp anomalies over the UK and Europe than warmer ones- latest run as an example-I keep monitoring these daily theres been a consistent colder signal in the main for most months for a while. Interesting atleast if not believable being the CFS 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Euro is a bit kinder with a more average end however GFS keeps the cyclone train rolling right through. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Morning all, another forecast chart today showing lots of cloud in the Eastern Alps associated with yet another upper low circulation in this location. The theme of the summer so far here with much cloud cover and depressed temperatures. Yes, a fresh covering snow at 3000m level in conjunction with the predicted 0c isotherm level. Latest GFS still showing a cool set up for most of this month. I am now beginning to think if the snow patches on our local mountains are going to survive the rest of the summer in the height range 2500-3000m. Still plenty at 3000m and above.

 C

GFSOPEU00_12_24.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Better run from the ECM this morning when comparing to yesterdays 0z.  This was yesterdays chart for next Saturdays vs this mornings run:

image.png.2aff70d926abf4eef1bcfad20d70eec2.png     image.thumb.png.1ffeecf8fbf6a7d51dad2127d7c34172.png

The GFS has made a similar adjustment as well.  Then we have the familiar routine of the day 10 'Azores Tease'!

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Overall, not too bad with nothing awful lurking around the corner.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Think I ran out of energy Karl !! And probably the last 2 to 3 weeks of dross is to blame...

Anyway, as you say,a mixed bag this morning..at least we have,hopefully at least,a good 4 or 5 days with more emphasis on drier weather.

Things look pretty slack as we move through the week so a bit of thundery potential,hopefully ...

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

Such a pity there is hardly anyone posting..the outlook isn’t to bad, it’s mixed for sure but there is some fine weather at times..I really don’t know what folk expect..heatwaves galore?..come on, it’s the u k and realistically a u k summer is a mixed bag..get over it!!!!

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I think mate its the nothingness of it all.. Its neither unsettled or settled,but just constantly cloudy with limited sun and it does grind the gears after a few weeks tbh.. Yes conditions next week see some at times decent weather. It trends a little more unsettled towards next weekend, but it's a rather slack flow.. Which could entail more gloom and nothingness! Just taken a look at the extended ECM mean out to day 14 and the pressure is disappointing to say the least... Its averaging around 1013mb, which is pretty much the starting point of stuck in the middle of nowhere. I'm still hoping for an improvement during the 1st week of August, going on the 46,but Monday will be an interesting run... Namely due to the fact it went for a major turnaround on Thursdays run, compared to the previous one which was poor.. So here's hoping it keeps with that trend change.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

This mornings brief uptick in the outlook for the end of the week has taken a downturn once again, difficult to see where ukmo is going but with a northerly flow at 144 its not going for a heatwave! 

Gfs back to a very autumnal look with strong winds and rain, which is backed somewhat by the Mets update today...the pubs and resteraunts here in Wales will not be happy!

 

GFSOPEU12_189_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

GFS is a low pressure fest and not worth mentioning!

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GEM shows a weak ridge at day 10 again, which could give a day or two of quieter weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS is a low pressure fest and not worth mentioning!

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GEM shows a weak ridge at day 10 again, which could give a day or two of quieter weather.

Yes, seems summer came in April / May this year which were glorious here. August can easily be a forward extension of autumn and it seems we are in the middle of a typical solar minimum summer.

 

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The GFS 12z makes for very poor viewing as has been mentioned. Looking at the ensembles it is quite an outlier when looking at pressure especially. One can only hope it is overdoing the low pressure.

Quiet and settled for much of next week though.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

12z ECM @216

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

32209FCF-45F7-420B-B0E2-6B80557AF45B.thumb.png.166750ff0dd1e2c0dbe91e0bcad30911.png

High pressure and warmer air nosing in again at day 10. Next weekend looks a bit of a write off, but there could be an improvement Into the following week...

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

@240

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Pretty decent for the south I must say. That low near Iceland could cause a bit of trouble up north but other than that the 12z ECM is a pretty good run, the further south the better.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

It's not a bad ending from ECM and at least it's warmer, especially the South.. I'm not buying this August is an extension of Autumn.. Yes it's been a long while since we had one, but it's sods law we will get another run of good ones.. Also reading between the lines, the met currently saying there could be a good deal of fine weather next month.. Confidence is low but I'm hoping we get another positive ECMWF long range on Monday.. Keep it positive guys, we are due a lucky break.. 

Enjoy your evenings

ECM1-168 (1).gif

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ECM1-216 (1).gif

ECM1-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
2 hours ago, KTtom said:

This mornings brief uptick in the outlook for the end of the week has taken a downturn once again, difficult to see where ukmo is going but with a northerly flow at 144 its not going for a heatwave! 

Gfs back to a very autumnal look with strong winds and rain, which is backed somewhat by the Mets update today...the pubs and resteraunts here in Wales will not be happy!

 

GFSOPEU12_189_1.png

I'm heading to Pembrokeshire camping Friday to Monday

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Too far out, I know... but I wouldn't mind some warmth on my birthday 

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