Model output discussion - into July 2020

[mountain shadow]

I presume the prediction of improving AAM has fallen away again or the extended models have not picked up on in yet?

[mb018538]

CFS shows no real improvement for the next 10 days now - not sure on the ECM latest. I’d ignore the spike in August - it’s been forecasting sharp rises a month ahead all summer. None have come off.

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

CFS shows no real improvement for the next 10 days now - not sure on the ECM latest. I’d ignore the spike in August - it’s been forecasting sharp rises a month ahead all summer. None have come off.

Aye, that CFS AAM forecast chart is a waste of time of money.

[Ice Day]

Well, having reviewed the 12z's, I think 'underwhelming' would be an apt description.  Both the GFS and ECM are showing a weak low over Scandi around day 7 which would have this place in high excitement come winter (we have a very low bar after all!).

It's startling to look like an unsettled spell is the form horse heading towards next weekend.... however time for this to change though.  It's quite a complex and messy pattern so it's going to take a couple more days before we can say with certainty how it will be resolved.

 

[Snowy L]

27 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

CFS shows no real improvement for the next 10 days now - not sure on the ECM latest. I’d ignore the spike in August - it’s been forecasting sharp rises a month ahead all summer. None have come off.

I swear the graph has looked like this for the last 3 months. 

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I swear the graph has looked like this for the last 3 months. 

It has! Best thing is to look at the reanalysis of conditions:

Sharply negative all summer after the record breaking May - which by no coincidence had both rising and positive momentum through the month.

[mb018538]

ECM was a slight unsettled outlier, but that mean is taking a real nose dive into the last week of July. Once you start heading down to the 1000-1010mb range in high summer it’s never usually a good thing.

[Djdazzle]

Total crap fest on the 12z’s! Looking like the Met Office extended outlook for the last 2 weeks in July may be totally wrong!

[damianslaw]

Much of a muchness from the models today. In the short-term a trend to something a bit warmer for all, especially the SE and dry as well, so feeling more summery.  Friday and through Saturday sees a slow moving cold front sweep through the UK, pushing aside any warmth, and leaving us in a preety chilly airmass for this time of year. Notably cool in the north and the nagging NW wind will take an extra edge off things.

Into next week, models showing low pressure to the NE, this prevents any significant build of pressure over the UK from anchoring itself into a position to deliver anything especially warm. Eventual outcome heights rising to our NW, not where we want them, with the trough making a visit to the UK. ECM chart 240hrs downright unpleasant for a late July weekend. Hoping the trough doesn't make the UK it's home.

 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Total crap fest on the 12z’s! Looking like the Met Office extended outlook for the last 2 weeks in July may be totally wrong!

Don’t worry we can get to 90f with ease in the last week of July

[Evening thunder]

Yeah.. it's a total crap fest on the 12z's...

I'm sure the expectations and criteria for no moaning get worse each year 

[Djdazzle]

19 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Don’t worry we can get to 90f with ease in the last week of July

Oh I still think we can squeeze out a 2 day plume from somrwhere!

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Evening thunder said:

Yeah.. it's a total crap fest on the 12z's...

I'm sure the expectations and criteria for no moaning get worse each year 

And there are models showing rubbish at the same time frame. Extended outlook also looking poor. ECM goes downhill rapidly after 144. If the charts you post have more support in the morning then all the better.

[Evening thunder]

 

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

And there are models showing rubbish at the same time frame. Extended outlook also looking poor. ECM goes downhill rapidly after 144. If the charts you post have more support in the morning then all the better.

A bit cool on the 'lesser two' of the top performing models I suppose
ECM, UKMO, GFS, GEM


ECM still alright for most at T+192

I agree the summer's been a bit poor so far, and I understand the frustration. 

However there's some settled charts in the output, my next 7 days forecast on the Met Office is no rain, low 20's, and decent sunny spells. I guess that's not a total crap fest.

Unless people are just talking about the unreliable day 9+ timeframe, I guess..

[Downpour]

39 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

 

A bit cool on the 'lesser two' of the top performing models I suppose
ECM, UKMO, GFS, GEM


ECM still alright for most at T+192

I agree the summer's been a bit poor so far, and I understand the frustration. 

However there's some settled charts in the output, my next 7 days forecast on the Met Office is no rain, low 20's, and decent sunny spells. I guess that's not a total crap fest.

Unless people are just talking about the unreliable day 9+ timeframe, I guess..

We seem to have gone from a position where charts showing the AH nudging in at 6-day range were treated as cannon fodder to those showing mega-troughs at 9-day range are being treated as gospel! 

This is the WeatherPro app output for London in the coming days. Nothing noteworthy, but pretty decent! 

[Daniel*]

Viewing EPS not that bad really rather cool and dreary however late this week through into early week particularly in north, cool nights are also likely the CET is not having much chance to recover.

Edited July 15, 2020 by Daniel*

[summer blizzard]

Euro is forecasting a monster trade surge in the Pacific upcoming which will energise the westerlies at the mid-latitudes. 
 

 

This may be why the Euro and GFS have started to verge on horrific towards day 10.

Edited July 16, 2020 by summer blizzard

[mb018538]

5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro is forecasting a monster trade surge in the Pacific upcoming which will energise the westerlies at the mid-latitudes. 
 

 

This may be why the Euro and GFS have started to verge on horrific towards day 10.

It’s certainly part of the problem. Stubbornly strong easterlies all summer so far just haven’t helped us at all. This one as you say will really fire up the mid lat energy.

[NApplewhite]

13 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

Ukmo 144 . No Heatwave but it certainly could be worse .

I will take this but temperatures are looking to be much lower than average - places like Leeds and manchester will struggle to reach 14-16 degrees this month. 

[NApplewhite]

Just now, mb018538 said:

It’s certainly part of the problem. Stubbornly strong easterlies all summer so far just haven’t helped us at all. This one as you say will really fire up the mid lat energy.

So my theory that the East Pacific storms will impact on a poor UK summer was correct! 

[bluearmy]

Can’t shake off the reality of cycle ridge/trough with neither able to sustain .....though the nature of troughs is they are generally mobile in our part of the world. Whilst the nwp continues to promise more ridging and less troughing, the shallow troughs mean the reality is less appealing. Still time for a pattern change of sorts come August but that wouldn’t  necessarily be for the better !  Perhaps we’re better off in the surf zone rather than trying to get into a blocked area which could leave us on the wrong side ! 

[NApplewhite]

Look at the position of the Jet Stream in 8 days time (24th July)  - shocking that its so far south (how often do you see a powerful Jet over the south of France and Balearics and Italy, Western Balkans) ? the UK, Northern France, low countries and Germany, Poland, Scandinavia are all the wrong side of the jet! only the south of Spain looks hot at the end of next week and North Africa! very disappointing 

Edited July 16, 2020 by NApplewhite

[NApplewhite]

2 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Look at the position of the Jet Stream in 8 days time (24th July)  - shocking that its so far south (how often do you see a powerful Jet over the south of France and Balearics and Italy, Western Balkans) ? the UK, Northern France, low countries and Germany, Poland, Scandinavia are all the wrong side of the jet! only the south of Spain looks hot at the end of next week and North Africa! very disappointing 

Short term its looking OK - for the first time in five days we have patches of blue over Bradley, Wrexham but its cold. 

[mb018538]

19 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

So my theory that the East Pacific storms will impact on a poor UK summer was correct! 

Not really - there have only been 3 named storms so far, and none of them have been strong at all. There are E Pacific storms every year, so by your logic that would make every single UK summer bad.

[northwestsnow]

Improvement of sorts over the next 7 days or so on ukmo and GFS this morning,moreso the further South ones heads.

Unfortunately no sign,it will be either stable or sustained.

That said,things can change quite abruptly so we can hope for changes,as it stands,the trend to something less palatable the further towards day 10 we head is a trend that can't be ignored at this juncture...

At least it looks like a drier interlude for many of us..

 

Edited July 16, 2020 by northwestsnow