Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Mark wheeler]

The UKMO showing the N/S split continuing . 144 Hrs not to bad really .

Edited July 14, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[northwestsnow]

Yes UKMO looking good with the Azores high finally making a decent fist of it...

[mountain shadow]

GFS 12z pretty dire. Winds predominantly from the West, North West or North with associated cold uppers and suppressed surface temperatures. 

[Mike Poole]

GEM T168 looks very promising:

Trouble is such charts have tended not to come into fruition, maybe now there is some momentum behind a high pressure incursion from the Azores that might head east????

Edit: GEM T240 shows a proper summer pattern, LIKE

Edited July 14, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Daniel*]

39 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS 12z pretty dire. Winds predominantly from the West, North West or North with associated cold uppers and suppressed surface temperatures. 

Yep much of Europe is exceptionally cool for its entirety really. Can anyone possibly see a repeat of late July 2019?

[Frosty.]

Just been having a look a bit further ahead at the 12z runs so far, all similar in terms of timing and evolution so I’m thinking the mid range is shaping up nicely, in my opinion things are not looking bad for the rest of July, at least across the southern half / third of the u k.  

[Djdazzle]

23 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Yep much of Europe is exceptionally cool for its entirety really. Can anyone possibly see a repeat of late July 2019?

It was never going to be likely. But no reason to suggest that we won’t get some hot weather between now and the end of the month, even if it’s a 2 day plume. You’d never bet against 90F being exceeded.

[Zak M]

GEM ends on a very fine note!

   

I've still got my hopes up for a late July/early August consolation.

[Guest]

Its all a bit nothingy this evening isn't it, we're back to prospects of anything decent lasting more than a day or two being pushed right back to at least 7-8days out with weak extensions of the Azores being flagged up again.....lol not buying that one again....

When was the last time 30C wasn't reached in July? 2011? I can remember there being a hot spell in July 2012 as I was in London

[Downpour]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS 12z pretty dire. Winds predominantly from the West, North West or North with associated cold uppers and suppressed surface temperatures. 

Again, it’s location based. It’s fine if unremarkable down here - decentish summer weather. In the NW, it’s crappy. 
 

UKM looks better outside the far NW. 

Edited July 14, 2020 by Downpour

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Its all a bit nothingy this evening isn't it, we're back to prospects of anything decent lasting more than a day or two being pushed right back to at least 7-8days out with weak extensions of the Azores being flagged up again.....lol not buying that one again....

When was the last time 30C wasn't reached in July? 2011? I can remember there being a hot spell in July 2012 as I was in London

I wouldn’t worry yet Chris. The same was being said this time last month, and 90F was broken. Nothing to rule out the same thing happening this month - it seems likely even in poorer months.

[Daniel*]

Interesting to note AO has been negative pretty much all the way through summer so far, forecasts remain firmly negative even more later this week.. perhaps this is contributing to v suppressed temps in N U.K. with colder air than normal displaced from Arctic. I have noticed 850hPa temps are unusually cold for July.

[Zak M]

12z ECM @168

I reckon the next few frames will be pretty interesting!

[mb018538]

Looks ok at 192, probably another transient ridge that will move away though.

[Zak M]

Quite decent for the south...

@192

[mb018538]

Messy by day 10, and with that northern blocking pushing the jet south, it’s not ideal. 

GEM looks the best, so we can hope it’s closer to the mark.

[Ice Day]

We certainly seem to be stuck in a weather rut at the moment, the runs have continued to churn out the same pattern for the last few days now.  Certainly nothing awful about them but not a nationwide warm spell either (and I certainly shouldn't be complaining, being a south easterner).  The one difference with the ECM tonight is that days 9 and 10 have gone downhill a little!!!!   Good job they never come to fruition then.

   

 

Edited July 14, 2020 by Ice Day

[mb018538]

This is a valid point - and why the 500mb plots that @johnholmes regularly posts are important. Without ridging in the upper air pattern, surface high pressure isn’t as strong or effective. We’ve had a lot of that this summer, where you don’t get as great weather as you’d hope under high pressure. No change expected soon either.

[damianslaw]

Model output showing a classic La Nina imprint for summer, suppressed azores high and a flow from between north and west, whether this is an entrenched pattern remains to be seen but we've been locked in this for a good 3 weeks or so now. Other signals were suggesting we might not quite yet see it imprinting to such degree and ridging may take a foothold. However, models don't seem to be showing this, we continue to see the ridge moving in outside the reliable timeframe, keeps getting pushed back.

Outcome - cool, cloudy though fairly dry which is some consolation away from western and north west parts. Warmest sunniest conditions always reserved for the SE quarter of the UK, temps here average at best, no real warmth.

We are losing precious weeks in high summer to very lacklustre conditions.

 

[Mapantz]

12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Model output showing a classic La Nina imprint for summer,

We're not in one though?

[Tim Bland]

ECM 12z is very dry. 1-2mm for most areas over the 10 days 

[summer blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

We're not in one though?

Not yet however Nina zones 1, 2 and 3 are all below the threshold and persistent trades are being observed.

The posters above are no doubt inferring that low GLAAM is indicative and suggesting of enhanced mid-lattitude westerlies.

[Singularity]

The latest update to observed AAM showed no overall gain as of 12th. Model forecasts now assume a gain has got underway since in response to the +FTs, which has ties to how quickly the cool air moves away after the weekend. It's difficult to assess to what extent high pressure will manage to hold in warm positions for us next week.

If we just had another moderately negative AAM cycle in the works, it'd be relatively straightforward - the high tending to be focused to our west, like it is on Sunday.

As it is, we don't... but while there's a lot of +FTs being input, most of them have so far been in the Southern Hemisphere, though 12th does show an uptick on our side so perhaps there's a more meaningful transition incoming. Applying typical lag on that gives us the 2nd half of next week for results. Models exploring that but tending to be very tentative with ridges over or east of the UK. Wouldn't it be amusing if it turned out that, having overdone such patterns for this week, they proved to be making too little of them for later next week! Too much to ask...?

[StormChaseUK]

36 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 

We are losing precious weeks in high summer to very lacklustre conditions.

 

Yes the clock is ticking down, but we had a great march, april, may, june. Have to pay,

[Methuselah]

Mein Gott in Himmel, we're all going to die: GFS T+240:

    

I give up!