Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Zak M]

While that UKMO chart @144 doesn't look the best, if the model went further then it would probably show the AH ridging in and bringing something warmer and settled.

[mb018538]

Marco still confident - won’t be seeing 29c on the ukmo output tonight that’s for sure!

[Zak M]

GEM is actually alright on Friday - mid 20s in the south.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

GEM is actually alright on Friday - mid 20s in the south.

GFS is similar, but its really just one slightly warm day now and the models at 6-8days have yet again significantly under played the depth and activity of lows developing up near iceland....

[MATTWOLVES 3]

24 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Atlantic is underestimated on the models in FI, as it gets closer the settled weather tends to become more Atlantic dominated as it gets closer in July and Aug, key EC coming up, hope it dosen't trend towards UKMO and GFS

Can you offer a little more insight rather than keep whining about how the Atlantic dominates through July and August.. And again why is it a key ECM.. it matters not a jot, because all the output come this time tomorrow could be completely different again. EC46 tonight... Will it be key! I think not... It will merely serve to show us what the current trends may be looking like from this evening, and it may Completely change come Thursdays run. 

[Met.]

4 minutes ago, MATT said:

Can you offer a little more insight rather than keep whining about how the Atlantic dominates through July and August.. And again why is it a key ECM.. it matters not a jot, because all the output come this time tomorrow could be completely different again. EC46 tonight... Will it be key! I think not... It will merely serve to show us what the current trends may be looking like from this evening, and it may Completely change come Thursdays run. 

To be fair you've been posting the same types of charts showing an Azores high nudging the south coast of England and these annoying GIFS with "I'll drink to that" since the 1st July and every single time it's eroded into cold, wet mulch for most of the country. I think it's clear some of these models struggle with anticipating the extent that the jetstream and low pressure systems manage to work in from the west if that keeps on happening.

[Downpour]

7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS is similar, but its really just one slightly warm day now and the models at 6-8days have yet again significantly under played the depth and activity of lows developing up near iceland....

Again, it looks a benign and generally pleasant outlook for the SE beyond two ropey midweek days tomorrow and Wednesday. Not a raging heatwave but many of us don’t want that - I absolutely hate hot nights.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

To be fair you've been posting the same types of charts showing an Azores high nudging the south coast of England and these annoying GIFS with "I'll drink to that" since the 1st July and every single time it's eroded into cold, wet mulch for most of the country. I think it's clear some of these models struggle with anticipating the extent that the jetstream and low pressure systems manage to work in from the west if that keeps on happening.

Annoying.. The forecast is no where near as bad as some are painting.. I post the mean charts and they show what they show.. I do not make over the top comments on each and every operational run.. And I always try to install a little light hearted humour into events. I won't bother in future.. 

[Singularity]

Some difficulties sorting out the exact orientation of the high this weekend. Trough movement important - faster is generally a cooler outcome for the UK. Not impressed by UKMO's big jump in that regard after holding so steady beforehand. 

Generally, it's a confusing time to be a numerical weather prediction model. The tropics are behaving less Nina-like than for some time, increasing the chances of seeing high pressure in warm to hot positions for the UK, but the non-tropics feature generally negative mountain torques, suggesting no coherent overall response to the tropical changes. Our current high, being so soon after the tropics shifted, may be more connected to other factors such as the development of (ex-)tropical storm Fay. 

I have a feeling next Monday should prove to be the start of a more concerted effort to shift the subtropical high pressure cell over or just E/SE of us - but having seen the spanner-throwing for this weekend when I was to be honest expecting the high to face less pressure from that trough to the north, I'm wary of assuming much past a few days range at the moment.

Perhaps, temperature wise, July 2020 will be a 'late bloomer'. At least, while it may be a bit on the cool side at times, there looks to be some decent spells of weather while we wait to find out! Once we get past tomorrow & Wednesday morning, that is.

[Met.]

3 minutes ago, MATT said:

Annoying.. The forecast is no where near as bad as some are painting.. I post the mean charts and they show what they show.. I do not make over the top comments on each and every operational run.. And I always try to install a little light hearted humour into events. I won't bother in future.. 

Well I don't mean it as a personal attack rather more it becomes annoying when the anticipated conditions fail to materialise. There needs to be some acknowledgement that the models really are struggling in this period so far with this set up.

Edited July 13, 2020 by Thundershine

[Downpour]

2 minutes ago, MATT said:

Annoying.. The forecast is no where near as bad as some are painting.. I post the mean charts and they show what they show.. I do not make over the top comments on each and every operational run.. And I always try to install a little light hearted humour into events. I won't bother in future.. 

Please carry on as you are. I enjoy your posts and most of the hyperbole and hysteria on here is born of the simple fact that much of the weather in an average summer is a NW/SE split. 

[Met.]

24 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Please carry on as you are. I enjoy your posts and most of the hyperbole and hysteria on here is born of the simple fact that much of the weather in an average summer is a NW/SE split. 

No hsyteria from me. I'm merely pointing out that there is an issue with certain models not getting a handle on this Azores high situation very well. I've seen this all month where we had decent weather anticipated on every forecast service I've seen deteriorate into some abysmally poor conditions. Maybe not in London, but look at the rest of the country - our coldest start to July in more than 30 years, and entire month's rain already. It's no ordinary NW/SE split. So nobody's attacking Matt here, simply rebutting his comments earlier to I Remember Atlantic. Anyway everyone carry on...

Edited July 13, 2020 by Thundershine

[Guest]

Well GFS has been like a dog with a bone in its outliers showing a quick turning down of any warmth through the weekend and compared to yesterday when the mean for uppers was above average for 10days down here, now its just 3. Just look at the way the whole ensemble suite entrenches a pretty notable upper trough and cold pool especially over the north for a lengthy period. 

Bournemouth and Manchester Ensembles for GFS 12z uppers. 

 

[Tim Bland]

Huge ECM coming up. What it does post weekend is really key!! 

[Zak M]

ECM is decent for the south on Friday too -

@96

Edited July 13, 2020 by Zak M

[mb018538]

Hopefully ukmo is on the loopy juice tonight. ECM looks ok Friday and Saturday, but cool Sunday.

This chart sums up so many UK summers....the cold pool of air neatly encasing the UK while everywhere else sits in the warmer air.

[Ice Day]

The 'Big 3' at 144 - GFS / UKMO / ECM

  

So the UKMO and ECM very much in the same ballpark, with the GFS making more of the low to the north.  Can the ECM nose the Azores further north than this mornings run at 168?

[Zak M]

Looks like the AH is trying to ridge in, like I said about the UKMO earlier

@168

If this does end up happening then I won't be too bothered about the unsettled blip...

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Hopefully ukmo is on the loopy juice tonight. ECM looks ok Friday and Saturday, but cool Sunday.

This chart sums up so many UK summers....the cold pool of air neatly encasing the UK while everywhere else sits in the warmer air.

You couldn't make it up, its actually the coldest pool of air at  50-55 north in the entire northern hemisphere. 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Looks like the AH is trying to ridge in, like I said about the UKMO earlier

@168

If this does end up happening then I won't be too bothered about the unsettled blip...

Problem is Zak this summer decent looking weeks 5 days out turn into midweek periods like last week and and unsettled blips last 2weekts this summer. Again that sort of chart will not be good at the surface, fronts coming over the top and bundles of cloud.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

You couldn't make it up, its actually the coldest pool of air at  50-55 north in the entire northern hemisphere. 

Just shows how bad our luck it - the chance of that happening must be miniscule.

[Ice Day]

Looks very much like this mornings run so far, the dreaded north / south split, the uppers aren't overly impressive but the winds should be relatively slack.  Unlikely to see any days 8-10 eye candy on this run (I'm trying the old reverse psychology!)

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Problem is Zak this summer decent looking weeks 5 days out turn into midweek periods like last week and and unsettled blips last 2weekts this summer. Again that sort of chart will not be good at the surface, fronts coming over the top and bundles of cloud.

I have to agree - that is quite a poor chart if you want sunshine and warmth. Benign, quite cool and very boring!

[Mark wheeler]

Navgem at 144 and at 180 hours . Must admit things have gone slightly backwards but for the south and especially the  SE still more than useful .  At least we don’t have front after front crossing the Uk or a low right over us for days on end , certainly useful weather on offer for many .

Edited July 13, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Looks very much like this mornings run so far, the dreaded north / south split, the uppers aren't overly impressive but the winds should be relatively slack.  Unlikely to see any days 8-10 eye candy on this run (I'm trying the old reverse psychology!)

Max temps on that chart are 20-21c in the south. 12-14c maxes in the north, which is desperately bad for the hottest point of the year.