Model output discussion - into July 2020

[mountain shadow]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So T144, key time, here’s UKMO, GFS, GEM, 

I’m thinking a UKMO/GEM blend will be the result, we will see...

Where would rain be on those charts? At the green/yellow border?

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Where would rain be on those charts? At the green/yellow border?

Yes,maybe, but if you are in the green region, at this time of year, it could just be cloudy, need to look at the surface weather, fronts etc. to determine what the weather will actually be like, and that is difficult to do at the T144 timescale.  I think it is a case of watch this space, but it is looking much more promising for settled weather the second half of July.

[Guest]

Well the GFS Ops run again is in a small group of very pessimistic ensembles, three quarters of the ensembles keep things warmer and more settled for much longer.... 

[Mark wheeler]

Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls , I present to you , This evenings Mighty Super Navgem .

[Singularity]

The Azores High retreating back west having briefly ridged right across the UK is a classic response to AAM cycling back down having only just climbed toward neutral.

Looks like GFS is going with that while UKMO & GEM make more of the climbing AAM stage. ECM 00z looked to be in the latter camp, though not as emphatically.

This may be one of those times when GFS’ bias toward too much negative AAM input causes to to fall down (...more markedly than usual!).

[Mike Poole]

ECM has a very strong push of an Azores ridge our way at just T96, hardly likely to be wrong from there....

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144:

And with a bit of a push behind it out west...could be interesting development from here, but so far is consistent with other models re building a settled spell...

[Zak M]

12z ECM @168

14c uppers on the south coast, not bad.

Edited July 12, 2020 by Zak M

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168:

And now it gets interesting as we suck up warm T850s from the south...

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168:

And now it gets interesting as we suck up warm T850s from the south...

This could be fun - as the next low from the Atlantic approaches, will we see all that heat sucked north? 

On a serious note, at last some confidence developing in a decent end to the week and a return to the high 20Cs for some. 

Edited July 12, 2020 by Man With Beard

[Zak M]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This could be fun - as the next low from the Atlantic approaches, will we see all that heat sucked north? 

Yes!

   

[Daniel*]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168:

And now it gets interesting as we suck up warm T850s from the south...

They’re more than warm enough. Don’t see much drive to bring hottest air up pattern quite slack.

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192:

Obviously way into FI now, but this signal is coming up on model after model, summer well and truly back, whether we get the really hot temperatures, cant say at the moment, but just sunshine would suite me....

 

[Daniel*]

Doesn’t appear to be a sustainable pattern looking upstream. 

[Zak M]

@192

16c uppers in the south - certainly could be a 30c potential.

Edited July 12, 2020 by Zak M

[Man With Beard]

Bang! 

There's been so much eye candy on the ECM D9/D10 charts recently. Just a sense we're starting to close in on actual summer weather now, not just fantasy charts. 

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

@192

16c uppers in the south - certainly could be a 30c potential.

Probably not worth elaborating but heatwave threshold is meet for SE/EA. This will probably be on warmer side of pack.

[SMU]

This is why a weak (-0.5 > -1.5 ) NAO can bring heat to the UK - same as last year

Greenland High + Trough over Scandi - the col well north of the UK

Trough anchored out west & high pressure just over the UK / to our East

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This is why a weak (-0.5 > -1.5 ) NAO can bring heat to the UK - same as last year

Greenland High + Trough over Scandi - the col well north of the UK

Trough anchored out west & high pressure just over the UK / to our East

Would be funny if we got another shot at extreme heat this July.

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Would be funny if we got another shot at extreme heat this July.

Hm well we can quite easily see heat it’s high summer I don’t see any prospect of extreme heat on ECM 12z tho going beyond. We’d be left with a cut off Greenland high and probably a visit from an Atlantic low.

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hm well we can quite easily see heat it’s high summer I don’t see any prospect of extreme heat on ECM 12z tho going beyond. We’d be left with a cut off Greenland high and probably a visit from an Atlantic low.

Wasn’t talking about the ECM op as such - just responding to @Steve Murr

[northwestsnow]

I wonder if there is storm potential on EC ,looks warm and very slack later on...

Edited July 12, 2020 by northwestsnow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It's a pleasing ECM mean it has to be said.. What better way to wind down on a beautiful summers day by viewing some summer type sypnotics... Oh and watching the Purge Anorchy..

The op was a bit of an outlier regarding 850s, but also somewhat of an outlier regarding Pressure come the end.. More solid from the mean. 

Edited July 12, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Downpour]

The Azores High now a clear form horse as we approach the weekend. No extreme heat nor oppressive nights, just lovely weather for the south as the children break up for the school holidays. 

[Man With Beard]

My faith in the EC clusters is coming back a little - about 10 days ago I noted how the clusters were trying to lift the jet north - it's happened - and about 6 days ago I remarked on the possibility of a heatwave for the coming weekend, based on the clusters - it's still a possibility at just T120. So, I can't be too critical. 

What have they been saying recently for the end of July? Nothing exciting, I'm afraid. A trough moving towards Scandi at first, which might lead to a short spell of NWlies (might avoid the south), and then back to something flatter and a westerly regime - given the time of year, always the chance of Southern areas joining in with the heat of the continent on such a set-up but not a huge probability.