Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Ice Day]

Good run this, settled and warm for pretty much the whole of the UK and Ireland from Thursday through Sunday.

  

That'll do for now, hopefully the 12z runs will continue the theme! 

[Downpour]

GFS sees a noreasterly regression of the fabled Greeny/Icy low and allows the AH to take charge from next weekend. A summery outlook!
Massive kudos to Exeter LRF if they had this nailed a week ago. 

[Zak M]

Lovely from the 06z GFS -

   

@234

[Methuselah]

And at T+225... Sizzler incoming?

    

[Zak M]

00z ECM clusters @192:

Looks pretty tasty if you ask me!

[Frosty.]

Strong signs of summer returning, as others have commented on..fingers crossed!..I’ll drink to that!have to say, that’s an incredible looking mean on 19th July!!!

 

Edited July 11, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Man With Beard]

32 minutes ago, Zak M said:

00z ECM clusters @192:

Looks pretty tasty if you ask me!

Good to see the largest cluster being the most favorable position. Trough anomaly direct west, ridge anomaly slightly east, ideal summery position. However, given the constant understating of the jet this month at around this timeframe, we really need to give this two more days before drawing conclusions. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I shall believe these model runs when they're inside the five day range. They'll most likely get watered down as we approach those time frames. I saw a post somewhere else the other day suggesting that the jet stream is responding to solar minimum and it has been pushed too far south and models just aren't really getting to grips with the jet until its inside the reliable time frame. Explains why all summer we keep seeing ridging at Days 8/9/10

Edited July 11, 2020 by 38.7°C

[Mark wheeler]

Navgem . 

[Methuselah]

Ahhh, I'm not a heatist but... the GFS 06Z is, not surprisingly, on the warmer side of the ens, for most of the run:

    

    

[MATTWOLVES 3]

43 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

I shall believe these model runs when they're inside the five day range. They'll most likely get watered down as we approach those time frames. I saw a post somewhere else the other day suggesting that the jet stream is responding to solar minimum and it has been pushed too far south and models just aren't really getting to grips with the jet until its inside the reliable time frame. Explains why all summer we keep seeing ridging at Days 8/9/10

I read an interesting piece from NASA recently... The low solar minimum can have effect on the jet stream meandering... But there are so many other variables at play to consider! They also stated even if we entered a Grand Solar Minimum for decades the earth would still continue to warm due to the current emissions etc.. So even these events may not save us in future regarding our love of cold chasing. 

The GFS 6Z mean looks just cosha out to day 7...plenty of warm settled conditions in the offing, just need to get the first couple of days around mid week out of the way first. 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, MATT said:

I read an interesting piece from NASA recently... The low solar minimum can have effect on the jet stream meandering... But there are so many other variables at play to consider! They also stated even if we entered a Grand Solar Minimum for decades the earth would still continue to warm due to the current emissions etc.. So even these events may not save us in future regarding our love of cold chasing. 

The GFS 6Z mean looks just cosha out to day 7...plenty of warm settled conditions in the offing, just need to get the first couple of days around mid week out of the way first. 

Aye, Matt: it's such a shame that the Solar Cyclists among us will say almost anything, should it work against the (almost proven) fact that AGW is real... We no longer live in the time of Charles Dickens; and a meandering jet no-longer signifies frost-fares on the Thames and Potato Famines... Heatwaves, any time between February and October seem far more likely, this time around? That said, of course another severe winter is almost inevitable: 1947, '63 and '79 all occurred without a Deep Solar Minimum?

In the meantime, there's a snifter of a chance of 35C, should the GFS and ECM be correct. But, given the current uncertainty, re Atlantic storms, who the heck knows?

[Frosty.]

Can you imagine how cool it would be if the legendary Michael Fish posted on here!..anyway, looking at the GEFS 6z I can see plenty of evidence for a return of summer dammit!!!..and this doesn’t even include the fab-u-lus ECM 0z mean!

Edited July 11, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Mike Poole]

ICON first out as always, and it is a great run, that wobble around Tuesday is there, but the high builds across the UK and further east thereafter:

[Zak M]

Very nice 12z UKMO

@120

[Mike Poole]

All looking good for a return to summer on the 12s, UKMO and GFS at T144:

UKMO with a little more in terms of eastward progression of the high, well it has been leading with this for a while now, so I wouldn’t bet against it, GFS solid with high pressure build in though.  

[Djdazzle]

No dramas so far - phew!

[Scorcher]

4 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

that’s an incredible looking mean on 19th July!!!

Very true, I've said it before that the July 19th often delivers for some reason- a nationwide very hot day in 2016 and 2006 and probably others if you look back at the records!

[Mike Poole]

Well, I cant fault the GEM at T162:

Good confidence in a settled warm, but not as yet hot, spell.  Still wonder about the difference between the 12z and 0z suite, there again today, with todays 12z going on where yesterdays left off, but this morning’s runs were rather disappointing.  Let’s see what the ECM says in an hour or so...

Edited July 11, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

For sure the GEM 12z is really rather good in terms of summery weather returning..who am I kidding..it’s FANTASTIC!

Baby Steps!

Edited July 11, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Zak M]

12z ECM @120

Here we go...

Edited July 11, 2020 by Zak M

[Mike Poole]

ECM going with UKMO T120, and then some, high pressure heading over us and to the east, on this one, both charts:

[Zak M]

Now this is 144, and it looks pretty decent!

[Daniel*]

Looks the 12z is putting a thorn into any heat like 00z that upper low is even closer to NW.

[Daniel*]

Not easy going this summer sharpening of Atlantic high considerably less warm outcome to 00z.