Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Ice Day]

Heat building nicely at 216... 14c uppers over the extreme south east. Be different again in the morning, but the trend is finally going in the right direction.

Edited July 10, 2020 by Ice Day

[Zak M]

And the last frame, @240

So, that's it then, the 12z ECM is done for the evening. Certainly trending towards something more positive and we could have hope for July/late July after all. Though, it was funny to see some of the posts yesterday evening regarding the ECM op and some people writing off the rest of July for what it was showing, and now look. Just shows how much it can change in the blink of an eye!

Edited July 10, 2020 by Zak M

[mb018538]

ECM is great out to day 10. Are we going to get stiffed again this summer, or is this finally a decent little settled warm spell coming up?  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

47 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Provided the ECM follows tonight?  It will take a bit more than that to restore any faith in the ECM46 after winter 2018/19!

Its been pretty consistent this Summer though Mike.. And tbh all the met office models were singing from the same hym sheet that year. It will certainly give a better reflection than GFS ever will.. And I think tonight's 12z run sums it up pretty well.. I think its looking good now till the backend of the month... It may change then, but it's a long way off and to far out to be certain. 

[northwestsnow]

28 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is great out to day 10. Are we going to get stiffed again this summer, or is this finally a decent little settled warm spell coming up?  

Hopefully, I would say the SE is looking a shoe in for a decent spell of weather now.

Hopefully the drier weather will extend as far north as possible,still to be determined how far north...

From a IMBY point of view I suspect Manchester area will suffer cloud cover next week,the westerly element to the winds is a cloud magnet for us...

Kent etc will probably be 25 or 26 ,very nice.

Edited July 10, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T144 and T240: 

All very supportive of the position that I think we are now at after the op runs, return of summer for next week at least for most, and power to add...

Edited July 10, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Scorcher]

28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

From a IMBY point of view I suspect Manchester area will suffer cloud cover next week,the westerly element to the winds is a cloud magnet for us...

 

Early in the week yes but should be clearer from Wednesday if the ECM is on the money- fingers crossed.

[mb018538]

 

ECM generous, but not a total outlier. Better prospects tonight for sure.

[summer blizzard]

Euro significantly weakens the trough by Iceland at day 6.

[Mark wheeler]

Wahoo. Stav is on board . All systems Go .

 

CMA aint bad today

Edited July 10, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Mike Poole]

Pub run looks a lot flatter to me, here T192:

Think this is one for the bin given other output this evening...

[Zak M]

12z ECM clusters

   

 

@144 and @216

Edited July 11, 2020 by Zak M

[mb018538]

Definitely half a step back on the 00z runs for the end days of next week - not as glorious as the 12z set of last night....low pressure slightly closer and deeper has flattened the ridge so that there is now a bit more instability and some rain/showers into northern areas by Friday, though southern areas still holding on to warmer and drier weather:

Edited July 11, 2020 by mb018538

[mb018538]

A blast of heat later on the ecm, but check out the difference from last night!

[northwestsnow]

Looking good for a return of summer on the 00z runs...

Troughing never far away so as already stated,SE remains best bet for the heat..

I would imagine 26/27 degrees likely ..

[johnholmes]

Saturday 11 july for a 500 mb anomaly update

Ec-gfs both similar with trough depth position etc and slight +ve heights nw Europe into uk

Noaa shows less of height rises, in fact almost nil but has low/trough much as ec-gfs

So it looks like a nw-se split, more warmth/dry se and more changeable far nw will be probable weather for 6-10 days period?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking good for a return of summer on the 00z runs...

Troughing never far away so as already stated,SE remains best bet for the heat..

I would imagine 26/27 degrees likely ..

Little sign of Summer for us in the North West apart from a day or two.

Still a predominantly West to East movement unfortunately. 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM op would probably deliver a 32c by next Sunday.

Typical summer set up really....

However it is a long way off and of course the general output is flatter this morning. Still okay for the south. Regarding the set up we will be looking to see if any amplification like the ECM is picked up and carried forward by the other models or whether we just end up in a broad west/south west flow.

Ensembles still positive towards some decent summer weather next weekend.

   
Before then, next week looks mixed in the north, the south probably mostly dry with just a weak front moving through during the middle of the week. Temperatures ranging from average in the north to warm in the south.

Edited July 11, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[mb018538]

 

An interesting combination on the ensembles this morning!

[northwestsnow]

20 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Little sign of Summer for us in the North West apart from a day or two.

Still a predominantly West to East movement unfortunately. 

Fingers crossed we see something better than both  our regions have suffered over the last few weeks.

 

[Ice Day]

As seems to be the case recently, the 0z's are not as positive as last nights runs.  Nothing terrible, but the flatter pattern is not so good for the north/north west.  As has been stated, ad nauseam, over the last few weeks, this set up favours the south/south east, with some warm/very warm days likely towards the end of the week:

   

It get's even warmer thereafter but at that range it's not worth getting too excited.

So in summary, it's not too bad, could be worse, could be better!

[Downpour]

11 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

As seems to be the case recently, the 0z's are not as positive as last nights runs.  Nothing terrible, but the flatter pattern is not so good for the north/north west.  As has been stated, ad nauseam, over the last few weeks, this set up favours the south/south east, with some warm/very warm days likely towards the end of the week:

   

It get's even warmer thereafter but at that range it's not worth getting too excited.

So in summary, it's not too bad, could be worse, could be better!

Yes, something of a SE/NW split in there 

 

(runs for cover)

[Singularity]

Those small lows skirting around the ridge are a likely pest for northern parts especially when AAM is only partially in favour of extending subtropical highs across NW. Europe.

There should be some fine days in between though, unless you’re looking for high temps as the maritime flow will tend to prevent that except perhaps in the lee of high ground.

Progression toward a trough disruption interacting with a heat plume is the classic next stage, after which AAM progression determines whether we see a reload of high pressure (if AAM doesn’t fall much and quickly orbits back to the rising phases) or a spell of mobile westerlies / UK-based troughs (if AAM falls markedly and loiters in the falling phases).

[Ice Day]

The GFS 6z at 144 has the low to the north centred much further east which allows the ridge to build in stronger over the UK

Should be a better run in the mid-term 

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Z at T+183... Yee Haw!