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Model output discussion - into July 2020

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yes and particularly so in winter with any speculative cold spells - if the UKMO is not onboard, then forget it!

After 2018-19, I think I'll just forget it -- UKMO on-board or not!?:oldlaugh:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

4E8AB2E4-7BA7-4793-A6E6-5D6DC77132E6.thumb.gif.4c39e822ff0a598fb76f5ca7b2f47103.gif4898BB3F-A25B-431D-9D88-60B2EFAD0D70.thumb.gif.bcf2011582695031c65d2ada1202fa83.gif
For sure there are some encouraging signs on the 12z output so far..hope the ECM carries on from its 0z output!...in the meantime, nice weekend coming up for most as high pressure builds in..that’s me done for the day..hopefully back again tomoz some time!

D7C55CAD-7911-4A7B-98D7-EBA0D2C3A437.thumb.gif.166dba9c16f259ab547a50cd477e5147.gif48667858-5A87-47A3-8682-F49979DACF0F.thumb.png.56a09b2aa179e94c293b7539c769334b.pngB4522BC0-3023-4C4F-B700-FD837CAA6155.thumb.png.d70a48fdbc39e42aed66b3b55bd216ee.png44AF04D4-6897-4670-B002-CFFC105BC385.thumb.png.df56f9ff2c40313b46ded1be56ee2694.pngB49E96D3-32FD-41D3-91A7-B3A4B718351C.thumb.png.3b26d3deb60daaafee03f40a32b1ce93.png7492653B-9F6C-4D73-9DF6-297AD4FE91E6.thumb.png.a836f230ed4f8c5baab093397e92e831.pngDF0E7992-E72F-4B67-B81A-08493A5C8981.thumb.png.79c177b12fdae1e4cea53b49fde6f162.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
38 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yes and particularly so in winter with any speculative cold spells - if the UKMO is not onboard, then forget it!

Rose tinted spectacles I think I remember on more than one occasion last winter we were teased by cold easterlies or northerlies, the model was the last to back down even after GFS. It’s not a faultless model does better in summer. 

Hopefully ECM 12z will be like 00z warms up considerably at tail end of next week.

8C30D56C-5818-472C-A8F5-022AADC3D490.thumb.png.8ed946ee9c8e9646d986da5a49c8e958.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Good 12z output so far, nice up to T144, and pretty much go on with the settled outlook from there, GEM great T240, some real heat on offer for the south there, lets see what the ECM has to say, I’m optimistic, for the first time in a couple of weeks...

CE6F3905-6974-4C4D-9433-46C4E8CEDE06.thumb.png.a99c4a07f2553aa2c7299550c1793bd6.png0A390530-BBCF-4B42-8A88-A61D91ABEFF5.thumb.png.99d701d37c8ea96ddd08e7296fef6b73.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Rose tinted spectacles I think I remember on more than one occasion last winter we were teased by cold easterlies or northerlies, the model was the last to back down even after GFS. It’s not a faultless model does better in summer. 

Hopefully ECM 12z will be like 00z warms up considerably at tail end of next week.

8C30D56C-5818-472C-A8F5-022AADC3D490.thumb.png.8ed946ee9c8e9646d986da5a49c8e958.png

Really? All I can recall, were record (18-19C?) wintertime maxima, in Finland, and the tightest tPV you ever did see...?:cc_confused:

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

It really is a fabulous model ??

100% agree, I said last night it would be a major suprise if it was that far wrong at day 6...but kudos to the EC46 for not backing the ECM op or mean and going with UKMO.. I really hope the 46 continues this kind of form into the coming Winter..  But for me it's UKMO leading the way, and I'm starting to pay more attention the EC weeklies than I am the operationals and means. And judging by them last night I'm hopeful tonight's 12z will be looking rosey beyond next mid week.. 

But UKMO you rock. 

Edited by MATT☀️
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
6 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

100% agree, I said last night it would be a major suprise if it was that far wrong at day 6...but kudos to the EC46 for not backing the ECM op or mean and going with UKMO.. I really hope the 46 continues this kind of form into the coming Winter..  But for me it's UKMO leading the way, and I'm starting to pay more attention the EC weeklies than I am the operationals and means. And judging by them last night I'm hopeful tonight's 12z will be looking rosey beyond next mid week.. 

But UKMO you rock. 

Provided the ECM follows tonight?  It will take a bit more than that to restore any faith in the ECM46 after winter 2018/19!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Okay then, a warming trend on the GFS 12Z ens. But, there's also (as is typical for this time of year, and especially so during an 'active' NA hurricane season) a great deal of spread -- but, at least, the control also approaches 18C T850s::oldgood:

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Really? All I can recall, were record (18-19C?) wintertime maxima, in Finland, and the tightest tPV you ever did see...?:cc_confused:

You have a poor memory Pete we were chasing cold northerlies which never occurred throughout the winter. I remember in January there was a time when models were honing on an easterly. Never happened maybe a 24 hour easterly flow, think we had a week of more seasonal temps! 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Think we are good to go with the ECM tonight, here compared to UKMO at T120:

80D022E3-DC85-42E9-8AF3-B4D16886EE69.thumb.gif.24d5d913ed5150eb0b48f72dc6ba8f90.gif50DE3841-2C45-4E86-9526-0E3CD3EFAFC7.thumb.gif.d20f7565e1e40c0a890dba963fdc1599.gif

Not exactly the same as you’d expect, and maybe UKMO better long term slightly.

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

12z ECM @144

ECM1-144 (1).gif

Bank!

Edited by Zak M
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Popular Post
Posted

67CEB4A5-AFAF-4468-9BC8-CE37D3713FF7.thumb.png.6f8f1575d74be4e8fd6df20f5fc5c2c2.png

ECM gives us a full house at 144. Bring on the sun! ☀️ 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You have a poor memory Pete we were chasing cold northerlies which never occurred throughout the winter. I remember in January there was a time when models were honing on an easterly. Never happened maybe a 24 hour easterly flow, think we had a week of more seasonal temps! 

Oh come on, Dan...did anyone really think that that would come-off: you know what the tPV was like?:oldgrin:

Maybe this year, mate? But, who knows, I've nae seen lying snow since March 2018!:oldsad:

That said, are we not drifting a wee bit off-topic?:oldgrin:

 

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted (edited)

Bit different to this time yesterday in here. Much better charts for something that actually resembles summer. 

Edited by matt111
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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

I'm liking this...

696621033_ECM1-168(2).thumb.gif.a79be34953798bbbf8dace4d14a7b1fe.gif

@168

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Zak M said:

I'm liking this...

696621033_ECM1-168(2).thumb.gif.a79be34953798bbbf8dace4d14a7b1fe.gif

@168

A nice cheeky smile over the Uk there .

28CDBCD4-D014-4272-913C-1F42E2DA9235.gif

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

So much better across the models tonight after ECM's vomit inducing 12z from last night. At 144 we're looking good UKMO / GFS / ECM

image.thumb.png.02451840f7cb6f746a8be0af5104f695.pngimage.thumb.png.447b3985eabbf3699855e34ab230dea4.pngimage.thumb.png.9a30063046c8058748361bb474fda545.png    

Good consistency now, lord alone knows what happened to yesterday's ECM. I note the 'Parallel' is no longer available to view, I assume that's now become the Control run?

Holding firm at 168... with more to come maybe!?

image.thumb.png.69ba738455517b22b7f7da343b24968d.png 

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Downpour Community Regular

Downpour

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
Posted

Bring it on. No point wasting summer weather when the kids are at school. Here’s to a proper summer! 

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Could get another reload of heat! @192

ECM1-192.gif

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Oh How the Mighty Navgem has fallen , Tonight I’m giving it the boot but just for this run .

90F3ACCE-1B5D-482E-B37B-484EECB50F53.png

E6EE41D3-E11B-44F2-B088-B75FBF5D10BD.gif

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

192 and it's looking very positive!  A good FI brewing here..... even our Irish contingent should be enjoying this run!

image.thumb.png.52fdd07fff8331eee7da477a3aa1501b.pngimage.thumb.png.3e1cd552470c4eece05deff97154640a.png  

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Tonight’s ECM looks pretty settled and warm/very warm and just light winds.

image.thumb.gif.be81d4b01b14bf50e74d4dfd2c3be12d.gifimage.thumb.gif.4fa1aac20fa8a33407f5d4b414f68f13.gifimage.thumb.gif.1b0d7334a80d0fd09a96ff840d1a5f19.gif   

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

@216

Perhaps a bit of trouble brewing for the north but it's looking nice in the south still...

ECM1-216 (1).gif

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