Model output discussion - into July 2020

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just to sum up last night's EC weeklies, no real sign of that major interruption that was showing up on the GFS and ECM op next week. Largely settled next week, the best in the South. Moving towards the final 3rd of the month still highlights the best conditions towards the South and less so further North... Worth noting the flow appears to be Mianly of a Wstly source with temperatures mainly hovering around average. Still the same ebb and flow of this Azores ridge and no current signs of a strong build in a favourable area. Currently August is looking a tad more unsettled in the first part of the month as the ridge pulls back W/SW.. The precipitation totals are becoming quite high in W/NW Locations at this point, and again a similar flow of W/NW at times meaning temperatures are never becoming very high.. Warm at times further SE, more like avarage at best further North.. Its been sticking with this signal for the last couple of weeks.. So let's just see how it goes.. Its not bad at times but I'm not seeing lenghty heatwave conditions also. 

Enjoy your days.. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Griff]

4 hours ago, Downpour said:

ECM and GFS have moved towards UKMO and GEM rather than vice versa.

Who knew? 

Ha! Always this. 

[Frosty.]

You know what, there is some crud on the models longer term for sure but there is also some summery potential!.. and my glass is always half full rather than half empty!!!!!!!!! so who knows..perhaps July will deliver some weather to remember..for the right reasons!!!!..ps..God Bless Dame Vera Lynn..R.I.P.!!

Edited July 10, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Downburst]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It’s just the 576dam line at 500mb
 

I am no expert, but isn't 576 very high and hence indicating exceptional high pressure? I had though that was a rare event. And why 576? I am aware of the 528 for cold air in winter and possible snow, what is the significance of 576 I wonder?

Edited July 10, 2020 by Downburst
576 and not 578

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Downburst said:

I am no expert, but isn't 576 very high and hence indicating exceptional high pressure? I had though that was a rare event. And why 576? I am aware of the 528 for cold air in winter and possible snow, what is the significance of 576 I wonder?

FWIW 564 dam (+15 T850 hPA) is the holy grail in a British Summer..as for 576 dam?..never heard of it and I’ve been here since 2005!..anyway, looking at the models so far today there is some summery potential for sure, there is some absolute crud too but that is to be expected.

Edited July 10, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Downburst]

1 minute ago, JON SNOW said:

FWIW 564 dam (+15 T850 hPA) is the holy grail in a British Summer..as for 576 dam..never heard of it and I’ve been here since 2005!..anyway, looking at the models so far today there is some summery potential for sure, there is some absolute crud too but that is to be expected.

Yep, thanks JS. Perhaps @John Holmes can clear this up. Thanks for mentioning the 564, will keep that in mind.

[mb018538]

Think you guys are getting mixed up!

That chart is 500mb heights, which aren’t the same as the thickness/dam lines, which is the height you have to go up before pressure falls to 500hpa. 

Higher 500mb heights will indicate higher pressure though, but not necessarily heat. You can get High 500mb heights midwinter, but obviously without the 564 line and heat being involved.

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Think you guys are getting mixed up!

 

Just to be clear, I’m not mixed up..I’ve been here since 2005..thanks!

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Ah yes - the same solar minimum must have been responsible for the amazing April and May we just had!

Weather and climate are a funny thing. There seems to be a bias towards warm springs and unsettled summers with deep solar mins. Pretty sure someone did the historic analogues a year or two ago.

Edited July 10, 2020 by CreweCold

[johnholmes]

re the 500 mb anomaly charts

Not getting at anyone but there do seem some misconceptions as to what some of the numbers/lines actually mean.

The are obviously at 500 mb, roughly equivalent to 18,000 ft. However the lower the number and the lower the actual height from the ground to 500 mb will be. The converse is true. 

 

These charts do not show the jet stream and it is not shown by any particular height, a mention was made not long ago about 564 DM. As at the surface when the isobars there are close together this shows an area of stronger winds. At height, for example 500 mb the closer the contour line are then the stronger the wind flow at that height. A contour line like an isobar is a line of constant pressure.

Some, understandably get confused about the dashed lines seen on the anomaly charts. These are shown as red when they are +ve in relation to the average height for that part on the chart and blue when they are negative compared to average. In my view it is best not to take much notice of these until you have had a lot of experience in using these anomaly charts. Concentrate on the contour lines. These will give you an idea of where the air has originated from, thus how cold or warm it may be. The track they have taken to reach the UK will also give a good idea of the type of weather to expect. There are lots of non technical books about that may help you to understand more fully the differing airmasses the UK can be affected by. An understanding of those will also help in trying to predict out changeable weather.

 

Hope this helps some of you. Please pm me if you want any further help. I can't guarantee to be able to answer you but I'll do my best

 

John

 

 

Edited July 10, 2020 by johnholmes
spelling

[MATTWOLVES 3]

First out of the blocks is Icon and its starting to look good beyond mid week.. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by MATT☀️

[mb018538]

 

Looking good after a blip around Tuesday. UKMO looks lovely again Thursday.

[mb018538]

GFS also pleasantly warm by Thursday with 22-25c across a decent area. East faring best with a westerly flow in this instance.

[Captain Shortwave]

Increasing agreement on a deepening area of low pressure, which will become slow-moving close to Iceland. This should offer at least a reasonable pattern towards the U.K. with the Azores high extending towards us from time to time, potentially becoming displaced over Central Europe and allowing a very warm continental feed to move up from the south.

[Zak M]

I'll take this from the 12z GFS...

@180

[Mark wheeler]

All the models so far out show an improvement on yesterday’s 12z and even the UMKO has improved on yesterday run . I’m glad for once that the UKMO has triumphed to a certain degree ( I know it hasn’t happened yet ) . It’s normally the heart breaker in winter but perhaps our saviour on this occasion .

GFS, Icon and UKMO 

Edited July 10, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Jeremy Shockey]

UKMO 12z @ 144 hrs UPPERS

 

UKMO 12z @ 144 hrs

It could be quite pleasant by Thur according to the UKMO 12 z

 

 

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

UKMO 12z @ 144 hrs UPPERS

 

UKMO 12z @ 144 hrs

It could be quite pleasant by Thur according to the UKMO 12 z

 

 

Mid twenties. Not a heatwave, but a million times better than the utter crap we’ve been subjected to in the last fortnight!  

[Snowy L]

If the UKMO gets this right then it deserves all the credit. On its own yesterday backing a solution other than the relentless pattern that had been reinforcing itself for weeks and weeks.

[Methuselah]

Oi oi, what have we 'ere then, GFS at T+243... 18C uppers? Only a few hours' sunshine required

    

[Zak M]

GFS is an absolute beauty for the south!

   

@216 and @246

Edited July 10, 2020 by Zak M

[Mark wheeler]

Oohhhh Gem you little Rascal .

Edited July 10, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

If the UKMO gets this right then it deserves all the credit. On its own yesterday backing a solution other than the relentless pattern that had been reinforcing itself for weeks and weeks.

It really is a fabulous model

[Methuselah]

This is the type of weather-pattern I appreciated most, when staying just to the east of Drum Alba: a SW wind and temps into the twenties... and the sky stays azure-blue up there, too!!

    

And I'm jealous of my two youngest offspring (both daughters) who still live and work in the Sneck!

[mulzy]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It really is a fabulous model

Yes and particularly so in winter with any speculative cold spells - if the UKMO is not onboard, then forget it!

Edited July 10, 2020 by mulzy