Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Mark wheeler]

Icon vs Gfs at 120 hrs and it’s completely different with how it deals with the low . 

Is there a big difference between them in the verification stats ? 
 

Edit - Navgem 

Edited July 9, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Man With Beard]

Clusters T168 - more unseasonably high winds to come? 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

It seems that every time we look like settling down, something happens to stop it. On the face of it, the background signals haven't been awful this summer. But there is something working against us big time.

Solar min...

The jet is constantly being corrected S by the modelling as we get closer.

It will likely be the same this winter...

[Zak M]

Take a look at the 12z JMA... 

@228

[Methuselah]

Good morning, folks, today's GFS 00Z isn't looking too bad; there's even a faint sniff of some real warmth... As we approach Day 16!

    

    

    

    

    

But, judging by the 18Z ens, tropical storms might soon be making trouble:

    

    

Could the aforementioned tropical storms, in the central North Atlantic be what's causing those positive height anomalies near Greenland -- that I can't actually see

   

    

 

[mb018538]

7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Solar min...

The jet is constantly being corrected S by the modelling as we get closer.

It will likely be the same this winter...

Ah yes - the same solar minimum must have been responsible for the amazing April and May we just had!

[Man With Beard]

Will the real ECM please stand up? Last night's T168 vs this morning's T144

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Ah yes - the same solar minimum must have been responsible for the amazing April and May we just had!

And the current run of severe winters, we're all enjoying so much?

Edited July 10, 2020 by General Cluster

[mb018538]

The opposite of last nights run. Helpful!

[mb018538]

Barn storming ECM run - 850s up to 16/17c by day 10....:but so different to last nights 12z it’s crazy. I’m expecting a bit hot outlier when the ensembles appear, as much as I’d love it to be correct!

[weathergeek]

9 hours ago, wellington boot said:

For whatever little it's worth, my impression has been that the UKMO has been quietly excellent over the past 6 weeks or so. Frequently well ahead of the others or standing alone against them, only to be proved right time after time. Would love to see some verification stats to check if this is right.

Not to say that it will be right this time, and i barely expect it... But whereas if this were the other way round I would have zero optimism that the GFS, say, would prove to be right, I feel some cautious optimism that the UKMO might be onto something.

Just from my own reading of their website forecast they were sadly wrong for this week! Last week they said this week would be dry with mostly sunny/cloudy, around 21c (for Surrey) but it's been quite merky, rained for 2/3 days with hardly any sunshine! They're currently saying better from next week so I really hope so!! I think we've been spoilt with such an amazing Spring!!x

[northwestsnow]

Lovely 00z runs...

I would speculate EC might be a warm outlier but who knows,we will see shortly..

[Scorcher]

ECM may be an outlier but the GFS is also much much better than last night and is at least dry most of the way through, even if it wouldn't be cracking the flags. In comparison to what we've had in these parts over the last ten days (an absolute horror show), it's looking like a huge improvement next week.

The modern trend seems to be for hot spells either around the end of the 3rd week of July (around the 19th often seems to be hot) or the last 5 days as in last year and 2018.

Edited July 10, 2020 by Scorcher

[Singularity]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Will the real ECM please stand up? Last night's T168 vs this morning's T144

EPS probably going to look very sheepish... a strong example of playing ‘follow the leader’ by yesterday’s 12z set.
 

Now we have another solution from ECM and GFS where just one weak low catches the short jet streak and races off ahead of the pack, leaving the other disturbances to consolidate into a broader trough to our NW. Much more conducive to high pressure across the UK in a very warm orientation during the following 3-5 days.

Is this it now or are there further wild shifts to come? UKMO seems somewhat similar, just doesn’t steer the fast low as far south Tue-Wed, so I have some hope that the solution won’t change much more.

[Guest]

45 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Barn storming ECM run - 850s up to 16/17c by day 10....:but so different to last nights 12z it’s crazy. I’m expecting a bit hot outlier when the ensembles appear, as much as I’d love it to be correct!

Middle of November to high summer in 12hrs, There was never this inconsistency last summer. All three heatwaves were spotted 10days+ out and never really wavered, same with the very unsettled spell during early/mid august. Every GFS & ECM Ops run is massively different. UKMO & GEM seem a little more stable even if the later seems to overegg HP influence a little. 

Any got verification stats last summer verses this summer? 

[Downpour]

ECM and GFS have moved towards UKMO and GEM rather than vice versa.

Who knew? 

[mb018538]

 

Not totally surprising !

[Downpour]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Not totally surprising !

Yup it’s a warm outlier but at least commands some support from the general trend of its ensembles. Onwards and upwards!

[johnholmes]

34 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Middle of November to high summer in 12hrs, There was never this inconsistency last summer. All three heatwaves were spotted 10days+ out and never really wavered, same with the very unsettled spell during early/mid august. Every GFS & ECM Ops run is massively different. UKMO & GEM seem a little more stable even if the later seems to overegg HP influence a little. 

Any got verification stats last summer verses this summer? 

It's not really surprising the 2x and 4x daily outputs are so variable. The usually fairly consistent 500 mb anomaly charts are not their usual consistent selves. If the models are having difficulty at 500 mb with mean charts then no wonder the synoptic models are varying so much.

[Tim Bland]

Is their still a lack of data (due to reduced flights ) that could be contributing to the Shannon entropy?

[Zak M]

8-10 day 500mb mean

ECM (left) and GFS (right)

ECM is certainly better for the south

Edited July 10, 2020 by Zak M

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

8-10 day 500mb mean

ECM (left) and GFS (right)

ECM a tad better

Is the red line where the jet stream is?

[mb018538]

13 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

ECM a tad better

Is the red line where the jet stream is?

It’s just the 576dam line at 500mb
 

[Zak M]

Doing some cherry picking today, and look at this! 36c in the SE?! 

            

[Frosty.]

As you guys know by now, I just lurve cherry picking..0z..who cares! 
 

Nice one Zak

 

Edited July 10, 2020 by JON SNOW