Model output discussion - into July 2020

[mb018538]

Another named system is imminent, and will end up in the Atlantic next week. More chaos to throw into the mix!

Edited July 9, 2020 by mb018538

[Snowy L]

Don't know why there was such shock at the GFS. As expected, backed up by the ECM. The charts going for settled weather in the midterm only for it to disappear has been the running theme for 6 weeks now.

Edited July 9, 2020 by Snowy L

[LRD]

Will be interesting to see the ECM ensembles later. It could be an outlier mid-run and late for very different weather types

[LRD]

A nice weekend next weekend (away from the NW - sorry!) when I'll be on the Norfolk coast

Looks flimsy though

Edited July 9, 2020 by LRD

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Will be interesting to see the ECM ensembles later. It could be an outlier mid-run and late for very different weather types

The deep low on tonight’s op run featured in 25% of the 00z runs. So it’s not favoured just yet, but a realistic possibility. Especially with how this summer is playing out!

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The deep low on tonight’s op run featured in 25% of the 00z runs. So it’s not favoured just yet, but a realistic possibility. Especially with how this summer is playing out!

Thanks

All clusters have that high anomaly just to the West of Greenland too which isn't great. But hopefully clusters 1 and 2 will be near the mark by keeping a robust high over us or near enough to the south

Edited July 9, 2020 by LRD

[Singularity]

I’m not sure ECM could have found more development for that low days 6-7... and it suddenly has a slower jet stream out of the USA which causes the stall of the big low just to our north. 
 

Seems an extreme solution to say the least. I know the ridge isn’t looking ‘easy’ next week but given that we’re looking at some rise in AAM, it was a shock to see the trough digging well south like that - such behaviour is to be expected in the falling part part of a negative AAM cycle. Not rising part! 

Given how the ridge gets back in D8+, this feels like a solution forced mainly by ‘happenstance’ - an unlikely but not impossible combination on days 5-6 leading to trouble for us out to day 7.

This does make me wonder if GFS has more going for it than I was thinking, when it comes to the middle part of next week - it is now a sort of middle ground solution between ECM and UKMO/JMA/GEM, after all.

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Don't want to be that type of person but that's the 00z in the pic

Yeah - was just posting it for reference to show that the 12z op hasn’t just appeared out of the blue, similar charts were there in the 00z run for the same time

[Zak M]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yeah - was just posting it for reference to show that the 12z op hasn’t just appeared out of the blue, similar charts were there in the 00z run for the same time

Ah shizzles, didn't read the post correctly, sorry for that 

[Downpour]

13 minutes ago, Buzz said:

Can I borrow your crystal ball please? In fact, better still, can you put it on permanent rotational loan to the weather centres all over the world, I'm sure they would be delighted to have your ability to so very confidently and accurately predict the weather 2 to 3 weeks in advance.

It would certainly save billions of public money!
 

I know this is controversial but I prefer the ECM. At least it deals with the low midweek and allows the AH to ridge in for next weekend (start of the school holidays). I’d definitely prefer that solution to having the low blob around the place causing endless misery a la GFS! Call it short(er) term pain for long(er) term gain.

Overall, of course, UKM and GEM are preferred. 

Edited July 9, 2020 by Downpour

[MATTWOLVES 3]

47 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Its ok though....I'm sure some will point out at day 8 high pressure is very slightly ridging in from the south west and we'll be all rosy by Day 9 or 10 hahahahahaha heard that one before this summer......

Well its not OK.. I will wait for the mean and see if the EC46 is backing it before jumping the gun at each and every operational run..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

There is some backing for the op from the mean at day 6-7  before an improvement takes place later.. I would be very surprised now if the 46 is not going the same way at such a short time frame.. Will no more in the next hour. Its not all bad from the mean though. 

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Would you still post such a ridiculous reply if i posted charts if it was showing a hot and dry heatwave from start to finish? Or do we just ignore charts when they show what nobody wants to see? As far as summer has panned out so far and with La Nina getting its feet firmly under the table i think an awful run like GFS 12z might have more of a chance to come to fruition than people think. 

 

I think the issue is not that you posted a chart and commented on what it was showing, but how you appeared to support the output from the GFS and dismiss the output from almost all other models.  If you had just posted the GFS and said “IF this run is correct then it will be unsettled” then no one can complain as this is the ‘model output discussion ‘ thread. What you said was ;

”looks like another 2 - 3 weeks of Autumn and depressing mid teens temps (at least for my area) to look forward to.”

[Man With Beard]

54 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The deep low on tonight’s op run featured in 25% of the 00z runs. So it’s not favoured just yet, but a realistic possibility. Especially with how this summer is playing out!

I think there'll be more on tonight's clusters!

  

UK = Destination jet. 

The models aren't getting a grip on it until within D7.

[Dancerwithwings]

Remove 

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by Dancerwithwings

[mb018538]

Unfortunately folks, it looks like the UKMO run may be an outlier!

By 144 hours it has the 1025mb line into Cornwall - at the same time the very highest ecm ensemble member is 1023mb, with the mean around 1019mb.
 

The ECM op run tonight was a bit below the mean, but by no means an outlier.

[Mark wheeler]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Unfortunately folks, it looks like the UKMO run may be an outlier!

By 144 hours it has the 1025mb line into Cornwall - at the same time the very highest ecm ensemble member is 1023mb, with the mean around 1019mb.
 

The ECM op run tonight was a bit below the mean, but by no means an outlier.

Oh well , I must admit I was surprised by the ecm tonight but I’ve learned over time to never discount the Ukmo . That said now it shows what most people want it will most probably move towards the others in the morning . Let’s see .

[Downpour]

26 minutes ago, MATT said:

There is some backing for the op from the mean at day 6-7  before an improvement takes place later.. I would be very surprised now if the 46 is not going the same way at such a short time frame.. Will no more in the next hour. Its not all bad from the mean though. 

Yes, it gets there - eventually! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Let's throw the cat amongst the pigeons here... The EC46 looks closer to the UKMO take on things at day 6...High pressure ridging in from the SW with the trough over Iceland.. Thursday... Day 7 also looking decent with High pressure in control for many away from the far North... Nothing like the ECM operational at this stage. 

Pressure looks to be building again towards next weekend and early the following week.. 1020mb in Southern Ireland and the SW. 

Edited July 9, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Guest]

Models also won’t have got to grips yet with the injection of tropical energy into the atmosphere from the tropical storm developing again of the east coast. With a big heat dome over the central US I think it makes it more likely tropical developments take place up the eastern seaboard and in turn inject energy in the jet for us to suffer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The precipitation amounts for the period next Wednesday and Thursday are literally non existent towards the South.. I'm not so sure the ECM op and GFS have got this correct! I really can't see a model of the standard of UKMO being so wrong on a day 6 chart.. Regarding ECMFW the following week keeps High Pressure influencing  the SW... Pressure around 120mb towards those areas,, 1018 towards the Midlands... More typically 1014-1015 further North... Rainfall totals again are low in the South, and not overly high further North.. I'm gonna make a call and suggest ECM op will be looking a little more positive come the 0z run.. With UKMO hanging firm.. If I'm wrong so be it, but that's my honest assessment. 

Edited July 9, 2020 by MATT☀️

[wellington boot]

For whatever little it's worth, my impression has been that the UKMO has been quietly excellent over the past 6 weeks or so. Frequently well ahead of the others or standing alone against them, only to be proved right time after time. Would love to see some verification stats to check if this is right.

Not to say that it will be right this time, and i barely expect it... But whereas if this were the other way round I would have zero optimism that the GFS, say, would prove to be right, I feel some cautious optimism that the UKMO might be onto something.

[Guest]

No messing around, the pub already 10mb deeper with the low @120hrs than the 12z output at this rate by Tuesday/Wednesday we’ll have a 920mb low ploughing through the midlands

[Downpour]

56 minutes ago, MATT said:

The precipitation amounts for the period next Wednesday and Thursday are literally non existent towards the South.. I'm not so sure the ECM op and GFS have got this correct! I really can't see a model of the standard of UKMO being so wrong on a day 6 chart.. Regarding ECMFW the following week keeps High Pressure influencing  the SW... Pressure around 120mb towards those areas,, 1018 towards the Midlands... More typically 1014-1015 further North... Rainfall totals again are low in the South, and not overly high further North.. I'm gonna make a call and suggest ECM op will be looking a little more positive come the 0z run.. With UKMO hanging firm.. If I'm wrong so be it, but that's my honest assessment. 

Fair play to you for sticking your neck out.

We shall see!

[northwestsnow]

GFS hell bent on cancelling any notion of the Azores high getting a foothold this evening.

Morning runs will reveal all for the mid term , perhaps.

Edited July 9, 2020 by northwestsnow