Model output discussion - into July 2020

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

They are hopeless - through June they showed a big return to positive AAM towards mid July...this never happened as this has shown. Ignore them. ECM charts have been spot on.

Was gona say the same!!was forecasted to go postive for ages but just kept being pushed back each time!!waste of time following these aam forecasts from cfs in my opinion!!!

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational I would say ridge / trough / ridge / trough etc..etc..is probably a fair assessment of the run although it hasn’t quite completed yet..so, essentially a north / south split with the worst of it further north but even the south seeing some unsettled weather at times but by the same token, also the best chance of drier and warmer weather between troughs would be further south..in the meantime, in the reliable!..it’s an improving picture in the next few days coinciding with the weekend as high pressure builds in bringing more in the way of fine weather and sunshine than we have had for most of this week.

Edited July 9, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Snowy L]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

That is a huge outlier.

I'm assuming and hoping the det has lost the plot..

Not at all, something like that remains a big possibility as long as we have this new semi permanent arctic high. In fact I would make that the likeliest scenario as this summer anything that can go wrong has, and will continue to, go wrong.

Edited July 9, 2020 by Snowy L

[Guest]

Well the 06Z GFS run as whole was pretty positive as especially towards the end of next week, it really only the Ops run and one other ensemble that have a fairly largish low pressure close to the northwest of the UK. Many other ensembles are much more settled and much warmer. Although it has to be said while both the ECM & GFS ops run produce poorer outlooks for the end of week given their higher resolution their outlier nature can't be wholly ignored. 

[Frosty.]

Again, as with the 0z, the GEFS 6z mean isn’t to bad, indeed, in the words of Larry David for anyone familiar with the wonderful comedy Curb Your Enthusiasm..it’s pretty, pretty good at times!..sure, it’s not so good at other times but that’s a typical British summer for you!

Edited July 9, 2020 by JON SNOW

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes at @JON SNOW the mean brings some settled conditions at times and more so to the usual suspects... Note though how these semi ridging events never really build strongly NE. Very much like what the EC weeklies have been showing the last couple of weeks, an ebb and flow situation with troughing always prevalent to the N/NW.. Which is what is making the longer term forecast hard to pin down. We need a little more forcing for this to happen and the EC for sure is not flagging this up currently, but I will know a bit more this evening when it runs again. Here's hoping for some good news. 

[Zak M]

Nice to see some of the 00z and 06z GFS ensembles going for a bit of a warm up in the south at the end of next week

   

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Snowy L said:

Not at all, something like that remains a big possibility as long as we have this new semi permanent arctic high. In fact I would make that the likeliest scenario as this summer anything that can go wrong has, and will continue to, go wrong.

I won't disagree , I posted the other day about our latitude being exposed to troughing with a -AO...

I know it's not that straightforward but yes, I'm still guarded about the direction of travel.

[Daniel*]

It’s been a terrible start to July in London dullest since 2012. What’s also cruel is how close hot sunshine is just a stone’s throw across Channel.

However, it’s best not fretting about day 8-10 a significant improvement by Sunday should be very nice everywhere, away from extreme N/NW. There is a slight wobble with westerlies breaking through might be still decent for E but fingers crossed the HP reasserts itself it could well do.
 

Away from FI the outlook looks pretty good for south! it’s not a summer 2018 that’s clear...

[johnholmes]

Oh to be here

Interaktive 360°-Webcam im Skigebiet Kleine Scheidegg-Männlichen - Webcam PANOMAX 360°

PANOCAM.SKILINE.CC

---

Interaktive 360°-Webcam im Skigebiet Kleine Scheidegg-Männlichen

16.6 C at 8,000 ft and sun, here dull, drizzle and a max of 13.1 C so far!

Oh and almost 23 mm of rain in the past 24 hours

 Not sure just what these charts imply in the 6-10 day outlook either. They are not really consistent other than not showing any major +ve heights/ridging in the UK area

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by johnholmes

[Mark wheeler]

Well I’d take the Ukmo this afternoon with both hands Thank you very much , Good timing for the outdoor pools to be open especially down south . Let’s hope the runs continue to improve and more of the country gets involved .

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Guest]

GFS Ops run like a dog with a blinking bone with ramming in the Atlantic through the middle of next week and quite different from UKMO & ICON...….If its wrong its annoying, if ends up being right it'll being triple annoying......

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS Ops run like a dog with a blinking bone with ramming in the Atlantic through the middle of next week and quite different from UKMO & ICON...….If its wrong its annoying, if ends up being right it'll being triple annoying......

Unusual for UKMO to be badly wrong at 144. I’d back it any day.

[Mark wheeler]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Unusual for UKMO to be badly wrong at 144. I’d back it any day.

Yes I hope so , This Afternoons  Gfs is yuck unless peeps like that sort of weather In July of course . 

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Yes I hope so , This Afternoons  Gfs is yuck unless peeps like that sort of weather In July of course . 

It’s been getting progressively worse over the last few days, so that there’s barely any settled weather at all! Hopefully it’s taken the Bakerloo line, and ECM has gone Piccadilly.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Yes I hope so , This Afternoons  Gfs is yuck unless peeps like that sort of weather In July of course . 

Jesus that's Ops run from GFS has to be a worst case scenario surely it is absolutely terrible.....at 144hrs it only has backing from a couple of ensembles and it's pretty much out on its own....

[Downpour]

22 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Well I’d take the Ukmo this afternoon with both hands Thank you very much , Good timing for the outdoor pools to be open especially down south . Let’s hope the runs continue to improve and more of the country gets involved .

 

Yes, excellent output from the Office. Hints of the Azores High finally getting the upper hand over that blasted Icelandic low. As you say, ideally it will take charge and allow northerners some decent weather instead of the dreaded NW/SE split. 

[Downpour]

Just now, Alderc said:

Jesus that's Ops run from GFS has to be a worst case scenario surely it is absolutely terrible.....at 144hrs it only has backing from a couple of ensembles and it's pretty much out on its own....

Looks like a cannon fodder run but we shall see. 

[northwestsnow]

Ukmo looks ok, better the further south one heads of course.

GFS

[mb018538]

Belting GEM run - which looks much closer to the ukmo at 144 as well. Hope yet folks.

[Zak M]

The GEM is, um, a GEM! 

Edited July 9, 2020 by Zak M

[Downpour]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Belting GEM run - which looks much closer to the ukmo at 144 as well. Hope yet folks.

That's a peach, and again really shunts the Icelandic Demon out of the way. GFS, by contrast, has it bouncing around the northern UK for the duration, causing chaos and misery to all it touches. 

[Guest]

GEM ends up a GEM but an unlikely scenario IMO in the summer of 2020, allowing several incursion attempts from the north west close to the UK before bouncing them north and strengthening a HP ridge over the UK. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GFS 12z looks ok for the start of next week but full blown Northern Blocking trying to take control by next weekend and into the following week with what looks like another 2 - 3 weeks of Autumn and depressing mid teens temps (at least for my area) to look forward to. Can we restart summer 2020 please? 
 

[Zak M]

52 minutes ago, Zak M said:

The GEM is, um, a GEM! 

Didn't even see the end of the run