Model output discussion - into July 2020

[ChannelThunder]

22 minutes ago, Zak M said:

   

Could this be the build-up to the annual July plume event? Later in the run certainly looks that way. Way out in fantasy land, but right in the time of year they're most likely going by years of late

[NUT]

10 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Could this be the build-up to the annual July plume event? Later in the run certainly looks that way. Way out in fantasy land, but right in the time of year they're most likely going by years of late

Might seem completely random and I know it won't take place this year but we always seem to have some sort of heat spike/plume after the open golf championship (which would have took place next thursday/sunday I think) right after always seems to be some sort of plumey episode maybe this year be the same...............

[Guest]

Hmmm, not sure what to make of the 12z's so far, the high through early next week is definitely getting flattened with each run, while GFS reinforces the high to the due to the Atlantic trough developing and digging down much later and much further west. GEM doesn't do this and we up exposed to the Atlantic, UKMO hard to tell but probably just closer to GEM given its already started developing the low near Iceland. GFS ends up amazing but in summer where reinforcing highs near the UK hasn't exactly been the thing erring on the side of caution the GEM solution may be something that needs consideration especially given the more developmental looking UKMO. Still all very fine margins....

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Hmmm, not sure what to make of the 12z's so far, the high through early next week is definitely getting flattened with each run, while GFS reinforces the high to the due to the Atlantic trough developing and digging down much later and much further west. GEM doesn't do this and we up exposed to the Atlantic, UKMO hard to tell but probably just closer to GEM given its already started developing the low near Iceland. GFS ends up amazing but in summer where reinforcing highs near the UK hasn't exactly been the thing erring on the side of caution the GEM solution may be something that needs consideration especially given the more developmental looking UKMO. Still all very fine margins....

I really disagree regarding the UKMO- I see a similar evolution to the GFS, with the ridge briefly flattening early next week and then being reinforced again by the Azores High. The Atlantic really looks like quietening down to me next week, as it often seems to do around the middle of July.

[northwestsnow]

20 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I really disagree regarding the UKMO- I see a similar evolution to the GFS, with the ridge briefly flattening early next week and then being reinforced again by the Azores High. The Atlantic really looks like quietening down to me next week, as it often seems to do around the middle of July.

I don't think anyone will be complaining if GFS is near the mark!!

Ukmo looks fine to me too btw..

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hard to tell where the UKMO would go after D6 but I suspect closer to the GFS than the GEM.

This being said, there is a point appearing in the modelling now where we could see thing go south in subsequent runs...Shown here on the GFS

Minor tweak and the HP gets flattened and the troughing returns. Nowhere near as clear cut as it was.

[Frosty.]

I haven’t posted or been on the forum for a few days but I’m really happy with the trend to more settled and warmer conditions shown on the GFS / GEFS / ECM etc... If I had to stick my neck out and say what will happen I would say high pressure will build in over the u k and intensify, becoming settled and warmer..the usual 3 fine days and then a thundery breakdown followed by another rise in pressure..a rinse and repeat between settled and occasional thundery interludes and that would be my ideal scenario for the rest of this summer!

[Mike Poole]

I’ve been away from the models for a few days too, and things look much better, after the next couple of days of course.  

GFS parallel 6z is a decent run:

Although I do note the potential for downgrades around the 6-7 day mark as noted by @CreweCold earlier.  One to watch.  

ECM doesn’t succumb though, T168, T192:

[mb018538]

ECM is ok - not a patch on the 00z, but pleasant enough on the whole!

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is ok - not a patch on the 00z, but pleasant enough on the whole!

Not bad, if not particularly sunny for more NW areas.

Seems there has been a trend towards the HP being shunted a bit further S and W on today's runs...but it can easily revert back.

[Zak M]

@240 is quite nice actually -

[Mike Poole]

In the meantime, a soggy few days to get through.  GFS 12z take on cumulative precipitation to T84:

[mountain shadow]

32 minutes ago, Zak M said:

@240 is quite nice actually -

Not sure about quite nice. Still very West to East in the flow, so maybe cloudy and wetter in the North West.

Thought that run was a bit underwhelming to be honest.

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Not sure about quite nice. Still very West to East in the flow, so maybe cloudy and wetter in the North West.

Thought that run was a bit underwhelming to be honest.

I'm in a similar boat to you,anything with a westerly component not normally great news.Hopefully more emphasis on drier moving forwards ,after 2 weeks of unrelenting dross locally.

EC looks just about OK,but close to not OK for some of us.  

Edited July 7, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean, well it is alright to T192, but by T240 suggests a fair few runs heading in the wrong direction.  That’s 10 days away so given uncertainty in recent weeks, plenty of time for that to change:

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Decent ECM op and I have no complaints from the extended mean.. Its around 1018mb or so through till day 14,from the Midlands South anyway.. It kind of fits in with the EC46 and I reckon pressure may strengthen again come the backend of next week. 

[Man With Beard]

About 20% of the ECM ensembles get a plume to the UK by the end of next week, this one is shamelessly cherry picked

 

Model charts for United Kingdom (Temperature, 850hPa) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

WEATHER.US

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ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 07/17/2020, 07:00pm of parameter "Temperature, 850hPa", model...

 

[Mike Poole]

Apropos of nothing, and just because I am bored (I think we should acknowledge boredom as a major mental health risk, it has gone on so long) ICON T72 v 12z T78

Just cranking up the heat and high pressure for the UK a bit more...from a low base obviously!

Edited July 7, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Mark wheeler]

The Navgem isn’t to bad tonight but that heat pump isn’t going quite yet , well it is but it’s not making It here yet  .

 

Edited July 7, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening all

there has been some fantastic post's in here again today and thanks to Tamara again for her super post

lets have a gander:-

ecm/gefs mean at day ten shows some build of heights/pressure esp the south of the UK,the gefs more bullish with this as downstream trough in the Atlantic is more amplified,the 850's pretty similar though,can we get that cauldron to the south in Spain to pump northwards?

the temps look like responding next week esp later in the week

and lastly the cpc 500mb height anomaly's for 6-10/8-14 days

a tad better than two days ago but still hardly screams plume type scenario,dryer yes next week but beyond that is a little subdued but upper flow mainly westerly

so looking at the above,a fine spell for next week then probably unsettled again as we go into the following weekend and week after but this is crystal ball territory

later's. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

Pub run, T90 compared to T96 on 12z:

Looks like it digs the Atlantic low deeper, is a good sign early on...

Key bit will be about T160, does the high win out? 

Edited July 7, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run, T90 compared to T96 on 12z:

Looks like it digs the Atlantic low deeper, is a good sign early on...

Key bit will be about T160, does the high win out? 

Looks a bit dodgy with that Icelandic low at 120 v's 12z 126

more Icelandic low dramas

 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Looks a bit dodgy with that Icelandic low at 120 v's 12z 126

more Icelandic low dramas

 

18z better upstream though?

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

18z better upstream though?

It is and i should of mentioned that in my post above

[Mark wheeler]

Cool bananas , This is great output seeming summer was over a week ago for a few . Looking forward to the morning runs . What great input and knowledge there is  in to this site . My god have I learned a lot over the years and that remains the same too , so much I still don’t know but slowly I am picking things up . Thanks to all . And remember Navgem will one day reign supreme .