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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds
3 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Oh my the 18z has ended the run on a warm note

Come back in the morning and it will be gone again. I don't think I need to explain why. because that's what always happens.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Huge differences between GFS and other models at such short range as early as Wednesday

EC

overview_20200705_00_090.thumb.jpg.13711e528ebd01f6716dbf49c271249c.jpg

GFS

436697269_overview_20200705_00_090(1).thumb.jpg.3097195a75e978ad87dcb69ac5e50338.jpg

No other model has that deep low NW of Ireland on Wednesday

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
52 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Huge differences between GFS and other models at such short range as early as Wednesday

EC

overview_20200705_00_090.thumb.jpg.13711e528ebd01f6716dbf49c271249c.jpg

GFS

436697269_overview_20200705_00_090(1).thumb.jpg.3097195a75e978ad87dcb69ac5e50338.jpg

No other model has that deep low NW of Ireland on Wednesday

That’ll be the remnants of TD5 that @Alexis kindly told me last night that I didn’t know what I was talking about.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That’ll be the remnants of TD5 that @Alexis kindly told me last night that I didn’t know what I was talking about.

On a brighter note the 00z runs look reasonably promising...

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking at ECM ensembles, confidence in the proposed UK high is extremely high this morning - 48 out of 51 of members have high pressure slap bang over the UK by D8 - that's impressive! 

Lots of scatter by D12 but still quite a lot of blocks somewhere near the UK. 

 

Very low spread on that upper ridge .....but what follows is presumably likely to be more of the same with upper lows surfing the pulses of the Azores ridge ...  single cluster on the eps yesterday adds to the uncertainty though so just maybe .......

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Overall, decent overnight runs.  I'm liking the ECM as it makes much less of Fridays low when compared to the GFS

image.thumb.png.8c7abe9ab9889978fc954385d7c4d378.pngimage.thumb.png.7a22aaa1dfae5777115e87a9427f1442.png  

However, thereafter both models go on to show much better conditions from next weekend with the GFS keeping things warm and settled, for most areas, out into deep FI.  MWB's post above regarding the clusters adds weight to the idea the we're looking at some good weather just around the corner. 

Let's see what the 6z has to say?!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
23 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I have to give another view on the charts from the synoptic models and the positive post from MWB as the charts I use do not have such a strong signal and indeed have no consistency with one another or(with ec-gfs) from one day to the next.

Sunday 5 July

Update to day, ec-gfs show quite a change to the charts above,(not shown here) ec especially that previously had no indication of height rises over nw Europe, gfs showed slight. Now both indicate this happening, and it is quite a change even from what they had yesterday. So some caution required. The chart gfs now favours has the +ve heights not in Europe but over the uk and nw.

Noaa does not show this marked change and continues with its broad westerly across the atlantic into w’ern Europe, now with that trough more marked. No indication of any height rises over w Europe, with just a very small +ve height just sw of Iceland.

So I am not yet convinced that we are about to see a major change in upper air wavelengths, and a more suitable flow for a spell/period of upper and surface ridging. Until all 3 show a good degree of agreement then it is not often that the synoptic pattern currently showing trumps the anomaly charts.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Those charts still showing the ridge to the W/NW John with the upper flow more W/NW! Also heights looking strong in the pole region with very decent conditions across the Eastern Seaboard.. Have I got the right idea there? 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The 6Z mean also showing a very decent spell of conditions come next Weekend and beyond, so let's see how this plays out as the noaa charts still not really on board.. That mean does look lush though. 

gens-21-1-120.png

gens-21-1-144.png

gens-21-1-168.png

gens-21-1-192.png

gens-21-1-228.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The GFS ensembles seem to agree with a more settled spell from around the 10th...just look at those rainfall spikes over that 5 or 6 day period.. Its drier than a camels backside on a desert run. Exeter also highlighting more settled towards the West come next weekend then a N/S split with more settled the more favourable outcome but with low confidence. Be interesting to see the EC weeklies on Monday.. 

graphe4_1000_265_103___.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Well in near term midweek has downgraded substantially for southern parts a band of rain for all tracking SE on Wednesday, more rain for S/SE parts on Thursday courtesy of shortwave and possibly Friday too.

3CBD2CF4-56E1-44BB-B3D7-CBF78818D6DB.thumb.png.f32da0d73b8867a8aafba4bd7cef59b8.png4B5526B0-32BE-45AD-83B9-24E17659DE37.thumb.png.f0b7272fde5cb5acc13dbbe1383b50a1.png
CECD59A6-2029-4836-AD88-54169E8A66FF.thumb.png.286ade9b070b29296fe26a35fea00421.png1121EB31-9B48-4D8A-B330-89F427CF7550.thumb.png.0fb1f4a807f43c66f3b6a3ddfbc90cc9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Gfs and Ukmo at 144 , it’s ok especially the GFS but I’d prefer it to be the other way around .

4509DC53-2638-42E2-B6FA-8501B2FF9F97.png

81E750C7-DC6D-4117-8170-99AC8C4AE3FE.gif

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2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Well in near term midweek has downgraded substantially for southern parts a band of rain for all tracking SE on Wednesday, more rain for S/SE parts on Thursday courtesy of shortwave and possibly Friday too.

3CBD2CF4-56E1-44BB-B3D7-CBF78818D6DB.thumb.png.f32da0d73b8867a8aafba4bd7cef59b8.png4B5526B0-32BE-45AD-83B9-24E17659DE37.thumb.png.f0b7272fde5cb5acc13dbbe1383b50a1.png
CECD59A6-2029-4836-AD88-54169E8A66FF.thumb.png.286ade9b070b29296fe26a35fea00421.png1121EB31-9B48-4D8A-B330-89F427CF7550.thumb.png.0fb1f4a807f43c66f3b6a3ddfbc90cc9.png

Its rare to see a forecast in summer so far below average for so long, 3-6C below for another 9 days given the average is pretty much 24C there. The back end of the week as you rightly point out looks really quite poor in places, somewhere is likely to pick up some really low maxima if the fronts are timed through the daytime (which off course they ALWAYS are). At least the start of the so called improvement does appear to be inside 7days now, lets hope it stays that way. Lets hope that remains consistent on the 12z's.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Its rare to see a forecast in summer so far below average for so long, 3-6C below for another 9 days given the average is pretty much 24C there.

Saturday morning looks to be rather chilly countrywide. Very light winds and cool aloft unusually low minima could be seen, cooler than what this depicts. 

2FEB9427-FE6D-40B1-B9C0-14CC17152ECD.thumb.png.838ba37446de6eccadccb2d7a311bcd3.pngBD755E88-1551-4528-B3E1-931E63B27B08.thumb.png.993b23e7c301e7fb648ed6daaf3ec238.png

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Fortunately GFS 12z makes a little less of low pressure towards the end of the week, and still looks to settle things down in through next weekend, there's a fair old 'cool' pool left in the wake of the low during Friday so it'll take several days to warm up by which GFS looks to have the Atlantic knocking on the door again....

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Fortunately GFS 12z makes a little less of low pressure towards the end of the week, and still looks to settle things down in through next weekend, there's a fair old 'cool' pool left in the wake of the low during Friday so it'll take several days to warm up by which GFS looks to have the Atlantic knocking on the door again....

Aye, this has slate grey (midlands) written all over it, anticyclonic gloom

h850t850eu.png

 

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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GFS actuals holds of the Atlantic and the week of the 13th looks pretty pleasant and warming into the mid 20's. Would absolutely take that as got two rounds of golf on the 16th & 17th. 

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