weatherguru14 Posted July 4, 2020 Location: leeds Location: leeds Share Posted July 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said: Oh my the 18z has ended the run on a warm note Come back in the morning and it will be gone again. I don't think I need to explain why. because that's what always happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Frosty. Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-) Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North Popular Post Share Posted July 5, 2020 (edited) The GEFS 0z mean shows there is great ensemble support for high pressure to build in over the u k in the not too distant future bringing an increasingly warm settled spell (nationwide)!...there is then a suggestion that it could become more humid with a continental air mass bringing thundery potential!...this is only my interpretation of future events and the reality could be very different but FWIW I’m really optimistic about another summery spell..coming soon..the mean has really improved in a short space of time! Edited July 5, 2020 by JON SNOW 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick F Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work) Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work) Share Posted July 5, 2020 Huge differences between GFS and other models at such short range as early as Wednesday EC GFS No other model has that deep low NW of Ireland on Wednesday 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Captain Shortwave Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Peterborough Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer. Location: Peterborough Popular Post Share Posted July 5, 2020 ECM/GFS/GEM day 7 Signs at least that maybe something more settled is on the way and potentially with an uptick in temperatures too. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mb018538 Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Cambridge, UK Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-) Location: Cambridge, UK Share Posted July 5, 2020 52 minutes ago, Nick F said: Huge differences between GFS and other models at such short range as early as Wednesday EC GFS No other model has that deep low NW of Ireland on Wednesday That’ll be the remnants of TD5 that @Alexis kindly told me last night that I didn’t know what I was talking about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestsnow Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL Share Posted July 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, mb018538 said: That’ll be the remnants of TD5 that @Alexis kindly told me last night that I didn’t know what I was talking about. On a brighter note the 00z runs look reasonably promising... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Man With Beard Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Drayton, Portsmouth Location: Drayton, Portsmouth Popular Post Share Posted July 5, 2020 I've been a bit nervous to make big predictions recently after a slight hiccup on the clusters last week, but, folks, this is looking good for D8 Growing confidence in a settled period starting Saturday and continuing into the following week - warmth gradually returning over time. Hopefully! 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Methuselah Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Beccles, Suffolk. Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine... Location: Beccles, Suffolk. Popular Post Share Posted July 5, 2020 (edited) Good morning, peeplies... Isn't it nice to see the GFS 00Z indicating something of an improvement? Though, that's hardly surprising really, given NWPs' penchant for going off at tangents -- of which today's petit stonkeur may well be one of, of course... If only 'envelopes' didn't have two sides! But, I'm sorry to say that, as the GEFS 00Z ensembles show, my pseudo-random choice of charts has (some might say, conveniently) missed-out all the poo... NH profiles: But, as The Almighty once said: Don't panic, things could be worse... and, lo-and-behold, things did get worse! Edited July 5, 2020 by General Cluster 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Man With Beard Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Drayton, Portsmouth Location: Drayton, Portsmouth Popular Post Share Posted July 5, 2020 Looking at ECM ensembles, confidence in the proposed UK high is extremely high this morning - 48 out of 51 of members have high pressure slap bang over the UK by D8 - that's impressive! Lots of scatter by D12 but still quite a lot of blocks somewhere near the UK. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluearmy Posted July 5, 2020 Location: st albans Location: st albans Share Posted July 5, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said: Looking at ECM ensembles, confidence in the proposed UK high is extremely high this morning - 48 out of 51 of members have high pressure slap bang over the UK by D8 - that's impressive! Lots of scatter by D12 but still quite a lot of blocks somewhere near the UK. Very low spread on that upper ridge .....but what follows is presumably likely to be more of the same with upper lows surfing the pulses of the Azores ridge ... single cluster on the eps yesterday adds to the uncertainty though so just maybe ....... Edited July 5, 2020 by bluearmy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Day Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please! Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex Share Posted July 5, 2020 Overall, decent overnight runs. I'm liking the ECM as it makes much less of Fridays low when compared to the GFS However, thereafter both models go on to show much better conditions from next weekend with the GFS keeping things warm and settled, for most areas, out into deep FI. MWB's post above regarding the clusters adds weight to the idea the we're looking at some good weather just around the corner. Let's see what the 6z has to say?! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post johnholmes Posted July 5, 2020 Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks Popular Post Share Posted July 5, 2020 I have to give another view on the charts from the synoptic models and the positive post from MWB as the charts I use do not have such a strong signal and indeed have no consistency with one another or(with ec-gfs) from one day to the next. Sunday 5 July Update to day, ec-gfs show quite a change to the charts above,(not shown here) ec especially that previously had no indication of height rises over nw Europe, gfs showed slight. Now both indicate this happening, and it is quite a change even from what they had yesterday. So some caution required. The chart gfs now favours has the +ve heights not in Europe but over the uk and nw. Noaa does not show this marked change and continues with its broad westerly across the atlantic into w’ern Europe, now with that trough more marked. No indication of any height rises over w Europe, with just a very small +ve height just sw of Iceland. So I am not yet convinced that we are about to see a major change in upper air wavelengths, and a more suitable flow for a spell/period of upper and surface ridging. Until all 3 show a good degree of agreement then it is not often that the synoptic pattern currently showing trumps the anomaly charts. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestsnow Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL Share Posted July 5, 2020 So 6z continues to advertise an improvement mid term,the question being how improved and for how long. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MATTWOLVES 3 Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better. Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level Share Posted July 5, 2020 23 minutes ago, johnholmes said: I have to give another view on the charts from the synoptic models and the positive post from MWB as the charts I use do not have such a strong signal and indeed have no consistency with one another or(with ec-gfs) from one day to the next. Sunday 5 July Update to day, ec-gfs show quite a change to the charts above,(not shown here) ec especially that previously had no indication of height rises over nw Europe, gfs showed slight. Now both indicate this happening, and it is quite a change even from what they had yesterday. So some caution required. The chart gfs now favours has the +ve heights not in Europe but over the uk and nw. Noaa does not show this marked change and continues with its broad westerly across the atlantic into w’ern Europe, now with that trough more marked. No indication of any height rises over w Europe, with just a very small +ve height just sw of Iceland. So I am not yet convinced that we are about to see a major change in upper air wavelengths, and a more suitable flow for a spell/period of upper and surface ridging. Until all 3 show a good degree of agreement then it is not often that the synoptic pattern currently showing trumps the anomaly charts. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV Those charts still showing the ridge to the W/NW John with the upper flow more W/NW! Also heights looking strong in the pole region with very decent conditions across the Eastern Seaboard.. Have I got the right idea there? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MATTWOLVES 3 Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better. Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level Share Posted July 5, 2020 The 6Z mean also showing a very decent spell of conditions come next Weekend and beyond, so let's see how this plays out as the noaa charts still not really on board.. That mean does look lush though. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MATTWOLVES 3 Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better. Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level Share Posted July 5, 2020 The GFS ensembles seem to agree with a more settled spell from around the 10th...just look at those rainfall spikes over that 5 or 6 day period.. Its drier than a camels backside on a desert run. Exeter also highlighting more settled towards the West come next weekend then a N/S split with more settled the more favourable outcome but with low confidence. Be interesting to see the EC weeklies on Monday.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel* Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL Share Posted July 5, 2020 Well in near term midweek has downgraded substantially for southern parts a band of rain for all tracking SE on Wednesday, more rain for S/SE parts on Thursday courtesy of shortwave and possibly Friday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark wheeler Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Chessington, Surrey Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive Location: Chessington, Surrey Share Posted July 5, 2020 Gfs and Ukmo at 144 , it’s ok especially the GFS but I’d prefer it to be the other way around . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 5, 2020 Share Posted July 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Daniel* said: Well in near term midweek has downgraded substantially for southern parts a band of rain for all tracking SE on Wednesday, more rain for S/SE parts on Thursday courtesy of shortwave and possibly Friday too. Its rare to see a forecast in summer so far below average for so long, 3-6C below for another 9 days given the average is pretty much 24C there. The back end of the week as you rightly point out looks really quite poor in places, somewhere is likely to pick up some really low maxima if the fronts are timed through the daytime (which off course they ALWAYS are). At least the start of the so called improvement does appear to be inside 7days now, lets hope it stays that way. Lets hope that remains consistent on the 12z's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel* Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL Share Posted July 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, Alderc said: Its rare to see a forecast in summer so far below average for so long, 3-6C below for another 9 days given the average is pretty much 24C there. Saturday morning looks to be rather chilly countrywide. Very light winds and cool aloft unusually low minima could be seen, cooler than what this depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 5, 2020 Share Posted July 5, 2020 Fortunately GFS 12z makes a little less of low pressure towards the end of the week, and still looks to settle things down in through next weekend, there's a fair old 'cool' pool left in the wake of the low during Friday so it'll take several days to warm up by which GFS looks to have the Atlantic knocking on the door again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I remember Atlantic 252 Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl Weather Preferences: obviously snow! Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl Share Posted July 5, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Alderc said: Fortunately GFS 12z makes a little less of low pressure towards the end of the week, and still looks to settle things down in through next weekend, there's a fair old 'cool' pool left in the wake of the low during Friday so it'll take several days to warm up by which GFS looks to have the Atlantic knocking on the door again.... Aye, this has slate grey (midlands) written all over it, anticyclonic gloom Edited July 5, 2020 by I remember Atlantic 252 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 5, 2020 Share Posted July 5, 2020 GFS actuals holds of the Atlantic and the week of the 13th looks pretty pleasant and warming into the mid 20's. Would absolutely take that as got two rounds of golf on the 16th & 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestsnow Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL Share Posted July 5, 2020 Lovely GFS 12Z... Settles down nicely and gets really warm ... Lovely,but a little too far out to be trusted. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Zak M Posted July 5, 2020 Location: Bedfordshire Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather Location: Bedfordshire Popular Post Share Posted July 5, 2020 Not bad... 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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