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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    Please carry on the model discussion here - we're a third of the way through summer already!

    If you're wanting to learn more about meteorology, please take a look at the Learning and Research area.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    GFS 6Z mean seams to be moving in the right direction looks increasingly settled towards end of next week, and again more so away from those NW areas.. Absolutely fab update from Exter today, had to read it twice for it to sink in... 

    Dare I say it a better than normal August... A long way off but its certainly long overdue.. ☀️?

    gens-21-1-180.png

    gens-21-1-228.png

    gens-21-1-240.png

    gens-21-1-264.png

    gens-21-1-288.png

    gens-21-1-312.png

    gens-21-1-348.png

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    57 minutes ago, Tamara said:

     

    As suggested previously, there is no straightforward axiomatic x=y correlation with this, as is the case with many global drivers. Solar forcing has different implications provided for, depending on the relationship between the tropics and the pole, and specifically here in terms of whether the given QBO/ENSO phase interaction augments or detracts from Brewer Dobson circulation and propagation of ozone between the tropical stratosphere and tropical stratosphere. This. an indicator of prevalence to blocking or to a stable stratosphere/troposphere layer.

    The adjustments of the sub tropical ridge have been in accordance with reduced wind-flow inertia upstream which periodically amplifies the upstream pattern and forces a downstream trough - not because of the action of stratospheric forcing on the troposphere due to low solar forcing allied to a stronger La Nina and properly down-welled e/QBO. Such as happened in 2007 for example - and which had occurred already by the time that summer had started. Such a full combination has not, yet at least evolved. So whilst it is conceivable it may evolve in future, it cannot be attributed to the here and now. How else did such a downstream sub tropical ridge evolve only last week otherwise - and no conclusions at all can be drawn from present NWP that the relationship has, yet, changed in terms of any downwelling within the stratosphere to affect the troposphere - just a few days into this next changeable spell.

    To reinforce that point, and as repeated so often, an abstruse e/QBO state transition has prevailed for some time and there is high lack of confidence how this will evolve during the remainder of summer and into the autumn. The outcome of this still has quite separate consequences in terms of weather pattern wavelengths as influenced between the stratosphere and troposphere - as linked to solar state. With weak La Nina-esque low frequency tropical forcing in place, and equal uncertainties as to how off equator forcing may continue to apply some dissonance between the tropics and extra tropics, then quite a choice opens up according to whether to the QBO transition finally bumps forward and strengthens, or whether the eclectic stand-off persists and even matches 2016 style failure. 

    Should the latter persist, or go even further and abort the easterly transition, there is every chance that sub tropical ridging will prevail alongside a (relatively) stable polar field. This mitigates the extent of sensible weather fall-out at the surface and leads to a relatively better case scenario within the limitations of a pattern to achieve sustained downstream ridging. Not a great summer pattern - but still some room for fine, warm spells in between changeable and cooler spells such as earlier in June, and again presently.. For all the reasons given of late. And irrespective of the solar signal which would be overridden in such a scenario.

     However, should there be signs of  closer union between a deepening e/QBO and La Nina forcing towards retracted sub tropical ridging attaining more of a polar aspect, then a trend towards an increasingly negative Annular Mode becomes more inevitable which sustains low pressure and attendant suppressed temperature anomalies at mid latitudes - this the result of a "constructive" relationship created between the stratosphere and troposphere towards blocking and also allowing a "constructive" relationship to low solar phasing. Constructive in the sense of assisting the potential dynamic relationship between the drivers, not in terms of how the outcome is viewed by a given audience as to weather preference outcome.

    Indeed confirmation bias as means of seeking a weather preference outcome can lead to error as a consequence of trying to fit given drivers to those particular sought after outcome(s)

    Thank you for your more holistic perspective, @Tamara... If only I had your linguistic abilities, I would definitely have worded my earlier post somewhat differently -- as I in no way meant to have a dig at@CreweCold...:oldsorry:

    And now the MetO have weighed-in with a more settled and warmer longer-term outlook... Curiouser and curiouser? :oldgrin:

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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    29 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    GFS 6Z mean seams to be moving in the right direction looks increasingly settled towards end of next week, and again more so away from those NW areas.. Absolutely fab update from Exter today, had to read it twice for it to sink in... 

    Dare I say it a better than normal August... A long way off but its certainly long overdue.. ☀️?

    gens-21-1-180.png

    gens-21-1-228.png

    gens-21-1-240.png

    gens-21-1-264.png

    gens-21-1-288.png

    gens-21-1-312.png

    gens-21-1-348.png

    Could you emphasise NW just one more time please?

    Only kidding, we’ve had practically no rain from March to the end of May and but nobody emphasised that. Now that a more normal pattern has emerged we have our name up in lights again ?

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    12 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

    That met update is kinda surprising it kind of came out of nowhere as everyone else has been feeling the opposite.

    Must admit i was kind of suprised by todays upgrade.

    To be fair though the EC mean has been moving in the settled direction.

    Will be an interesting few days model watching for sure.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Could be a bit of heatwave if these were right. Looks quite 1995'ish with that blocking high to the east. 

    settled 3.JPG

    settled 2.JPG

    settled 1.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    16 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    Could be a bit of heatwave if these were right. Looks quite 1995'ish with that blocking high to the east. 

    settled 3.JPG

    settled 2.JPG

    settled 1.JPG

    Week 1 looks quite good also but mainly the south will see the warm and settled conditions

    wk1.wk2_20200629_z500.thumb.png.fa5d353e76cccd2793893e0d6d8ce3fe.png

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    44 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

    Could you emphasise NW just one more time please?

    Only kidding, we’ve had practically no rain from March to the end of May and but nobody emphasised that. Now that a more normal pattern has emerged we have our name up in lights again ?

    Sorry NI...i have a bit of an habit as always referring to a NW/SE split... Which always seems to be the word most used to describe a split from North to South.. The precipitation amounts for NW UK were quite high at times moving forward.. But after that very favourable Exter update even the NW is considered to be looking much better with time. Sorry if it sounded like I was singling out certain areas, as its not always the case.. We will still get some drier areas towards the NW.. 

    Hope things are much better for you before much longer mate.. ??

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Sunday's not now looking quite so good, according the GFS 12Z. But, as is often the case with these 'fluid' situations, we might still not know, by Saturday!?:unsure2:
    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    It's all academic at the moment, but by T180 the incoming high pressure has a better shape on the GFS 12Z, with low pressure further north.

    gfs-0-180.png?12

    Reliant on faster exit of the Scandi low next weekend - the UKMO is not as fast at T144, and so the GFS solution should be questioned. But nice to see!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    29 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    It's all academic at the moment, but by T180 the incoming high pressure has a better shape on the GFS 12Z, with low pressure further north.

    gfs-0-180.png?12

    Reliant on faster exit of the Scandi low next weekend - the UKMO is not as fast at T144, and so the GFS solution should be questioned. But nice to see!

    Indeed MWB! And, by T+204, it's actually made it... 23-25 C, plenty of sunshine, lowish humidity? A millions miles' better than last-week's sweat-fest!:yahoo:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z ECM @168

    ECM1-168.thumb.gif.5782a7d1cf74f9973d9051cee5d612eb.gif

    Azores high is trying to ridge in...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    12z ECM @168

    ECM1-168.thumb.gif.5782a7d1cf74f9973d9051cee5d612eb.gif

    Azores high is trying to ridge in...

    @192

    Getting a bit better...

    ECM1-192.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    BANK!

    ECM1-240.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    My only concern is that ECM has been showing these kind of charts at 216 and 240 for a few days now, and they don't seem to be getting much closer!

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    And the 240 is decent too.  Still looks perhaps a bit transient; as Matt alluded to earlier there's a bit of an ebb and flow to our weather over the next few days.  That said, the Met update from earlier is quite positive, particularly away from the North West (Sorry @Northwest NI, not my words, but the words of the Met Office!).

    image.thumb.png.6fd5291c24dbb0c621f75c9c5e710ae7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Looking at tonight’s output, I wonder if the GEM might be closest to the mark:

    anim_oks4.gif

    Repeated partially successful attempts to ridge in from the Azores, knocked back by lows passing to the NW.  So increasingly settled periods for the SE, less so further north for the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM mean, again, suggests an Azores ridge T192, but still 1020 on the mean in the SW at T240:

    3597738A-4BD3-48D7-997D-CB36762A9A3F.thumb.gif.5403bd128decce4567331b7283c1d6a8.gif4233A977-0874-445B-BDBE-65DD23E4FFEF.thumb.gif.2c15dcdfec8022ec517bea424190bba3.gif

    Improving picture tonight across all models really, as we start July.

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