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20 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I've said it recently in the MOD thread but I'll say it here too. As far as I'm concerned, this winter will be in the league of 09/10. Cold and snowy.

When @CreweCold is getting excited, you know things are looking good. ?

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Hi everyone, Hope you're all well? ?  Thought I would share the GWV winter 2020/21 NAO Forecast with you all.  Thanks all and enjoy ?      

CFS going in strong already. This is an average over many runs Looks to me to be going for a December SSW. Means little on it's own at the moment obviously, but its noteworthy that per

I've said it recently in the MOD thread but I'll say it here too. As far as I'm concerned, this winter will be in the league of 09/10. Cold and snowy.

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My group predicted a colder than average winter just gone, using QBO and solar cycle as predictors. Unfortunately the normal downward propagation of the QBO cycle was disrupted in autumn, so it never got into the phase conducive for mid/high latitude blocking, and we had one of the least frosty winters I can remember. There was a similar QBO disruption in 2015/16. If these are going to become more common, that is going to throw out whatever marginal skill there is in the winter NAO seasonal forecasts.

I think SSTs in the Pacific also have some effect on the position of the winter jet stream. Warm anomalies can perturb the jet causing a wave train downstream putting the UK under a ridge (positive NAO) or a trough (negative NAO).

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  • 5 weeks later...

Probably not all bad. Firstly the mean MSLP is high so probably more like winter 2019 or 2015. Secondly when comparing the MSLP to temperature and even the shape of the mean anomaly it looks like we probably get at least one more zonal month with the high further south east and one with more of an Atlantic High.

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Would love a fair bit of that.

Some nice frosts and fog chucked in.

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20 hours ago, topo said:

Signs of the same pattern?

After 88-89 we had a similarly awful 89-90, after 19-20 ?

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i live where that big blue blob is over north america..so forecasting a cold winter here

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On 12/08/2020 at 09:00, Summer Sun said:

 

One year it’ll sit to the NE of the UK and we’ll get a repeat of ‘62/63. One year... 

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On 12/08/2020 at 12:12, Sunny76 said:

Sounds like a 2017-18 winter at least. I do think we will see a return of more snowfall this year, even into southern areas of England.

2017-18 winter had little high pressure over the country - Dec occasionally had ridges to the uk from the Azores and a brief northerly plunge mid-month, Jan was largely a mobile mild month and Feb known for the very cold end but not anti-cyclonic in nature.

You have to think we will see a return of a somewhat colder winter at some point, not sure if we'll still be in an easterly QBO for the upcoming one or if SST's have changed that dramatically particularly over the north eastern Pacific. By the way doesn't that area of HP ever go away in that area, seems to be there most winters of late.

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13 hours ago, Coopsy said:

One year it’ll sit to the NE of the UK and we’ll get a repeat of ‘62/63. One year... 

  I doubt we will ever see the likes of 46 47 62 63 again how ever I hope I hope I am proven wrong and we see winter like that again.

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6 hours ago, syed2878 said:

  I doubt we will ever see the likes of 46 47 62 63 again how ever I hope I hope I am proven wrong and we see winter like that again.

I don't think most people would want to see a 1947, or 63 winter again. It would be chaos, and potentially more devastating than a 1-2 week heatwave. 

 

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20 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

2017-18 winter had little high pressure over the country - Dec occasionally had ridges to the uk from the Azores and a brief northerly plunge mid-month, Jan was largely a mobile mild month and Feb known for the very cold end but not anti-cyclonic in nature.

 

That ebb and flow like 2017 sounds a decent shout.  Mildest month likely to be January and ‘westerly‘ in nature....again.  eQBO could be quite helpful at times this winter 

 

BFTP

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2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I don't think most people would want to see a 1947, or 63 winter again. It would be chaos, and potentially more devastating than a 1-2 week heatwave. 

 

I do not know the stats regarding death rates of the elderly during 62/63 but was probably inflated due to the prolonged extreme cold. No central heating or double glazing around then, well not in our farmhouse anyway. The papers were full of stories about how some folk actually froze to death in their own homes. However, for us kids it was a winter wonderland of fun but school bus kept running on time !

 C

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2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I don't think most people would want to see a 1947, or 63 winter again. It would be chaos, and potentially more devastating than a 1-2 week heatwave. 

 

  oh I am not so sure about that I think most winter lovers here on this forum especially younger members would like to experience a kind of winter like that even some of our older members I know I so would like to see something like that once in my lifetime

Edited by syed2878
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11 hours ago, syed2878 said:

  I doubt we will ever see the likes of 46 47 62 63 again how ever I hope I hope I am proven wrong and we see winter like that again.

I'm remembering when Strattos Ferric created a thread detailing statistically why we would never get a sub-3C month again.

The fact that the last solar minimum produced 3 different 28 day periods below 0C suggests that actually we probably will see a great again at some point (just with less frequency than before).

At any rate anecdotally once you get a sub-3C month you get plenty of snow round here. A true stonker would just be icing on the cake.

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I think December 2010 and March 2013 were decent for cold and a bit of snow. Maybe we will get something like that again. Even London was fairly cold on quite a few days during those months.

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8 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I don't think most people would want to see a 1947, or 63 winter again. It would be chaos, and potentially more devastating than a 1-2 week heatwave. 

 

Extremely heavy snowfall is all well and good if you live in the city, however living in rural communities it is a complete nightmare.  Cut off for weeks at a time and you are often physically unable to go to the shops, etc.  At least during a heatwave there is nothing physically stopping you go outside.  The extreme snowfall of March 2018 here was very, very unpleasant and I was going stir-crazy just seeing the constant white-out conditions for days.

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23 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Extremely heavy snowfall is all well and good if you live in the city, however living in rural communities it is a complete nightmare.  Cut off for weeks at a time and you are often physically unable to go to the shops, etc.  At least during a heatwave there is nothing physically stopping you go outside.  The extreme snowfall of March 2018 here was very, very unpleasant and I was going stir-crazy just seeing the constant white-out conditions for days.

Very true...but where is ‘here’ please Earthshine?

 

BFTP 

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I’m sure if we had a few years like 2008-2010 again, the snow novelty would wear a bit thin. I remember by 2011 or 12, I was becoming quite casual towards the snow events, probably down to the fact they were almost a given at some point during the winter. This was probably the case in the mid 1980s, when snow would fall quite often. 

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6 hours ago, carinthian said:

I do not know the stats regarding death rates of the elderly during 62/63 but was probably inflated due to the prolonged extreme cold. No central heating or double glazing around then, well not in our farmhouse anyway. The papers were full of stories about how some folk actually froze to death in their own homes. However, for us kids it was a winter wonderland of fun but school bus kept running on time !

 C

Funnily enough the old school that I went to in 1963 for 6 weeks before the summer holidays and then closed was at the end of the farm road so just half a mile to walk.It was turned into a house after and has just been sold for well over the asking price in under a fortnight. by a family that had been there for 37 years. Maybe should be on another thread but housing market is going mental here with folk driving round the countryside looking for property as we are viewed as a clean area for the virus.

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8 hours ago, syed2878 said:

  oh I am not so sure about that I think most winter lovers here on this forum especially younger members would like to experience a kind of winter like that even some of our older members I know I so would like to see something like that once in my lifetime

Having experienced the super winter of 62/63 and the snowy one of 79 , I became a snow addict. Waited for years later hoping of a return for my dream winters , only to get let down year after year. The only solution was to sell up and move one mile up a mountain in the Austrian Alps in 2005. The best decision ever. I get my snow fix every winter.  I still look at the weather charts every winter , hoping Blighty gets a real winter for the many snow lovers on this forum. Maybe this year will deliver > Keep the faith !

 

C

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Does anyone remember a weather guy called Tom Prosecco or something?

He was knowledgeable and had a theory that the 2020s would be cold Winters.

I've often wondered where he disappeared too.

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11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Does anyone remember a weather guy called Tom Prosecco or something?

He was knowledgeable and had a theory that the 2020s would be cold Winters.

I've often wondered where he disappeared too.

I'm still hoping TEITS is around on here also. But yes I do remember him.

You'll probably get slated and/or thanked for mentioning him.

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