July 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 14C -1.3C below average, Rainfall 62.5mm 109.6% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

15.0c to the 12th

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average
1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

 

[East Lancs Rain]

9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

15.0c to the 12th

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average
1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

 

Now perilously close to dropping below 15 degrees! Brrrr...  Even though I prefer warm summers, I would like to see the CET drop below 15C because then that would make it the coldest July since 1988, which would be something truly exceptional, esspecially in this period of rising temperatures.

 

I think whatever happens, it’s extremely likely that this month will finish up below the 81-10 average, unless we get some prolonged heatwave.

Edited July 13, 2020 by East Lancs Rain

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 14.2C -1.1C below normal. Rainfall 64.5mm 113.2% of the monthly rainfall.

[Summer Sun]

15.1c to the 13th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

[damianslaw]

CET unlikely to climb much over the next few days, perhaps up to 15.5 degrees by the end of the weekend. A finish above 17 degrees now looks a tall order, might we see our first colder than average month 81-10 this year? Good odds, typical it might happen in July our warmest month of the year.

Given all the predictions are for much warmer summers, its notable we are languishing nearly a degree below the 61-90 average at nearly the half way stage in July.

 

Edited July 14, 2020 by damianslaw

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 14.2C -1.2C below normal. Rainfall 64.5mm 113.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

15.1c to the 14th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

[summer blizzard]

Models look like they might produce a slow rise to the 25th however from Sunday onwards we start to get cool minima with still poor maxima so it's a very slow trip to 16C even before corrections. 

Given that the output has if anything trended negative in the longer range i would the odds of a 15.0-15.9 finish higher than 16.0-16.9. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 14.2C -1.3C below average, Rainfall up to 64.7mm 113.5% of the monthly average.

[DAVID SNOW]

June had 97MM.

Could July beat that and top 100MM?

[Summer Sun]

15.1c to the 15th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

[Duncan McAlister]

Really hope this pathetic July isn’t bumped above 16C and the 1961-90 average by a few days of 27/18 in the Southeast as it would be a total injustice. 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Duncan McAlister said:

Really hope this pathetic July isn’t bumped above 16C and the 1961-90 average by a few days of 27/18 in the Southeast as it would be a total injustice. 

Don't expect it to. CET zone stretches to Stoneyhurst in Lancashire. Temps in the SE until Sunday will return quite warm means, maxed 25 degrees, mins 14 degrees, but furth north means will be closer to average albeit mild minima should help to notch the CET to possibly 15.5 degrees as we enter next week. A finish above 16.5 degrees looking more and more unlikely given outlook. A range between 15 and 16.5 degrees finishing mark. 

[summer blizzard]

Hard to say exactly but between the slow rise than a potential fall back we more or less end up here at day ten.

Personally my aim is 15.7C, that would be 1C below the 1981-2010 average.

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, Duncan McAlister said:

Really hope this pathetic July isn’t bumped above 16C and the 1961-90 average by a few days of 27/18 in the Southeast as it would be a total injustice. 

I'm hoping for the first sub-15C July since 1988. Would probably need a final week similar to the start of this month given the current outlook. Would also help if the south-east doesn't skew the figures.

Edited July 16, 2020 by Relativistic

[Methuselah]

Quite why so many folks actually want a cool, dank July is beyond my ken... Though we Brits do love to have reason to complain, I guess!

[Relativistic]

5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Quite why so many folks actually want a cool, dank July is beyond my ken... Though we Brits do love to have reason to complain, I guess!

I want it solely for the novelty. As a weather enthusiast who likes variety, I find strings of above-average months rather tiring.

[B87]

2 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

I want it solely for the novelty. As a weather enthusiast who likes variety, I find strings of above-average months rather tiring.

Well you can still have that by the non-SE parts of the country having even worse conditions than present. I do actually want to experience a summer this year down here, and tomorrow looks like the only warmer than average day in our forecast.

 

Edited July 16, 2020 by B87

[Duncan McAlister]

36 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Quite why so many folks actually want a cool, dank July is beyond my ken... Though we Brits do love to have reason to complain, I guess!

I don't but as a weather watcher I'd rather go for exceptional than mediocre. A sub-15 July would certainly fit the bill.

[Earthshine]

If this month is gonna bad, at least let it be REALLY bad!

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Earthshine said:

If this month is gonna bad, at least let it be REALLY bad!

Mmm below average months are becoming more of a rarity it seems, but if I was to suggest which months I'd prefer to do it, July wouldn't be one of them. 

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm below average months are becoming more of a rarity it seems, but if I was to suggest which months I'd prefer to do it, July wouldn't be one of them. 

Quite. We get 6 months of cold, dark and miserable weather a year as it is, without one of the summer months adding to the the list.

[Earthshine]

This summer isn't finished yet.  If we get a cracking August this poor July will soon be forgotten I reckon.  

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 14.3C -1.3C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

Just passed halfway and plenty of time for a long unpleasant hot spell. Although none forecast as of yet bar today.

Today is going to be a big jump up and probably again tomorrow for some parts of the CET zone due the front struggling to get south.

Edited July 17, 2020 by The PIT