July 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker has settled at 69 mm for July, my guess is that final value to be revealed on 5th will be anywhere from 68 to 72 mm as the tracker does not necessarily account for the various fractional amounts that seem to have been either 0 or 1 mm additions recently. 

So with that in mind, I had already scored from 70.1 mm and will give you a look at that, slight changes would be required if the final value is closer to 69 mm. 

The top July scores from this arbitrary value are on left, if the final decision on 5th is 68 to 70, then the right column will apply

(edit, the right column is the actual scoring after the final value of 69.3 mm was published on 5th August). I have edited that portion of the table to show the actual errors).

 

01 _ Feb1991Blizzard __71.1 mm (+1.0) __ 10.0 pts ____ 01 _ JeffC ____ 69.0 mm (-0.3) __ 10.0 pts

02 _ JeffC _________ 69.0 mm (-1.1) ___ 9.83 ______ 02 _ davehsug _ 69.0 mm (-0.3) ___ 9.92

03 _ davehsug ______69.0 mm (-1.1) ___ 9.75 ______ 03 _ Twilight ___ 68.0 mm (-1.3) ___9.65

04 _ Roger J Smith __ 71.6 mm (+1.6) ___9.26 ______ 04 _ Don ______68.0 mm (-1.3) ___9.57 

05 _ Jacky^_________71.5 mm (+1.5) __ 9.24 _______05 _ Feb1991Blizzard _ 71.1 (+1.8) ___ 9.26

06 _ Twilight ________68.0 mm (-2.1) __ 9.65 _______ 06 _ Roger J Smith _ 71.6 (+2.3) __ 8.89

07 _ Don __________ 68.0 mm (-2.1) __ 9.57 _______ 07 _ Jacky^________71.5 (+2.2) __ 8.87

08 _ Stargazer ______73.0 mm (+2.9) __ 8.70 _______08 _ Stargazer _____73.0 (+3.7) __ 8.70

09 _ Born from the Void __73.0 mm (+2.9) __ 8.62 _______ 09 _Born from the Void _ 73.0 (+3.7) __ 8.62

10 _ Summer Shower _74.0 mm (+3.9) __ 8.33 ______ 10 _ General Cluster_ 65.0 (-4.3) __8.33

11 _ mb018538 ______74.0 mm (+3.9) __ 8.25 ______ 11 _ Summer Shower _74.0 (+4.7) _ 8.15

12 _ Blast from the Past _ 75.0 mm (+4.9) __ 7.96 ______ 12 _  mb018538 _____ 74.0 (+4.7) _ 8.07

13 _ Jonboy ________ 75.0 mm (+4.9) __ 7.88 ______ 13 _snowray ________ 64.0 (-5.3) _ 7.77

14 _ General Cluster _ 65.0 mm (-5.1) __ 7.59 ______ 14 _ Blast from the Past _ 75.0 (+5.7) _ 7.59

15 _ snowray _______ 64.0 mm (-6.1) __ 7.41 ______ 15 _ Jonboy ________ 75.0 (+5.7)__ 7.51

16 _ February 1978 __ 77.0 mm (+6.9) __ 7.22 _____ 16 _ Thundery Wintry Showers_62.4 (-6.9)_ 7.22

17 _ Godber1 _______ 77.0 mm (+6.9) __ 7.14 _____ 17 _ February 1978 __ 77.0 mm (+7.7)__ 7.03

18 _ Thundery Wintry Showers _62.4 (-7.7) __ 6.85 _____18 _ Godber1 _______ 77.0 mm (+7.7)__ 6.95

19 _ Bobd29 _________78.0 mm (+7.9) __ 6.67 ____ 19  _ Bobd29 ________78.0 mm (+8.7)__ 6.67

20 _ CheesepuffScott _ 78.9 mm (+8.8) __ 6.49 ____ 20  _ The PIT ________ 60.0 mm (-9.3)__ 6.49

(note ^ symbol = one day late penalty, explaining why this forecast drops one rank relative to error rankings)

(generally the scoring ranks drop about 0.18 per entrant, but duplicate later entries only drop 0.08 so the spacing can vary.

_________________________________________________________________________________________

As to the annual scoring, this would be the top 20 scores from the 70.1 value, only minor changes will occur if July scores from the lower value.

(edit: Those minor changes can be seen in the later post on 6th August ...)

01 _ Twilight _________ 56.77 ____________ 11 _ Blast from the Past ___ 46.75

02 _ Godber1 ________ 56.74 ____________ 12 _ virtualsphere ________ 46.59

03 _ Reef ___________ 55.13 ____________ 13 _ Jonboy _____________ 46.48

04 _ Mulzy __________ 53.52 ____________ 14 _ Feb1991Blizzard ______45.91

05 _ JeffC ___________50.90 ____________ 15 _ The PIT _____________ 44.90

06 _ Emmett Garland __50.61 ____________ 16 _ Roger J Smith ________ 44.09

07 _ mb018538 ______ 50.38 ____________ 17 _ Born from the Void ____ 43.85

08 _ Don ___________ 48.83 ____________ 18 _ SteveB ______________ 43.69

09 _ Bobd29 ________ 47.46 ____________ 19 _ Dog Toffee ___________ 43.62

10 _ General Cluster __ 47.40 ____________20 _ snowray _____________ 43.53

________________________________________________

21st to 50th for you (mostly) regular entrants, scores are not that much lower than the 14-20 range here, will post them all when confirmed. 

21 to 25 are TWS, DAVID SNOW, J10, Stat Front and davehsug.

26 to 30 are Feb78, brmbrmcar, MIA, DR(S)NO and seaside60

31 to 35 are Weather26, daniel*, Mr Maunder, Timmytour and CheesepuffScott.

36 to 40 are weather-history, Relativistic, Let It Snow, I Rem Atl and Stargazer.

41 to 45 are NeilN, Diagonal Red Line, prolonged Snow Lover, sleety and syed2878.

46 to 50 ranks start to include some contest dropouts, but 47 to 49 are Norrance, Polar Gael and Kirkcaldy Weather. 

 

Edited August 7, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[North-Easterly Blast]

It just goes to show that a slightly cooler than average July / summer month, does not preclude getting a short exceptionally hot snap, with July 2020 finishing up as the coolest July since 2012 with a CET of 15.73, being a generally cool month (15.34 to the 29th) and the final two days added 0.39*C to the month's overall CET with the third highest temperatures on record on the final day.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP has settled at 69.3 mm. Will update scoring report later today. 

[Roger J Smith]

Here's a full update then on the annual EWP scoring. The previous summary is slightly amended as July scores were basically the list shown on the right, I had been thinking the final value would be up around 70 mm but it only edged up to 69.3 which scrambled up the scoring a little, the annual totals are ranked below. I have included everyone who played July, and so the ranks have many missing entries below about 50th place (those are from earlier months and in some cases had entered several months so are ahead of more recent one or two time entrants). The ranks for average error are also shown here. Those tend to be similar to point total ranks except for the people who have missed one or two months, for them the average error ranks tend to be better. Late penalties also reduce total points but do not affect average error stats.

The table also shows all of the top 50 in scoring, a few in the 40s to 50th ranks did not enter July.

To be ranked for average error, a forecaster must have entered six or more months, but I show average errors for those not ranked in brackets.

Rank A = points total ranking (80 is max possible) Rank B = average error ranking (second decimals not shown in table may break ties to one decimal)

 

Ranks __ Forecaster __________ Total pts __ Avg error ____ Months entered

 1 __ 6 __ Twilight _____________ 57.33 __ 31.4 _____ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

 2 __ 1 __ Godber1 ____________ 56.56 __ 27.3 _____ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

 3 __ 3 __ Reef _______________ 54.57 __ 29.8  _____ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

 4 __ 5 __ Mulzy ______________ 52.96 __ 31.2 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

 5 __ 8 __ JeffC _______________51.09 __ 33.0 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

 6 __ 9 __ EmmettGarland ______ 50.98 __ 33.2 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

 7 __14 __ mb018538 __________50.20 __ 34.5 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

 8 __11 __ Don _______________ 49.39 __ 34.4 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

 9 __15 __General Cluster ______ 48.14 __ 35.5 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

10__20 __BobD29 ____________ 47.46 __ 36.5 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

11__10 __Virtualsphere ________ 46.59 __ 34.2 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

T12__12_ The PIT ____________ 46.38 __ 34.5 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

T12__16 _ Blast From The Past__ 46.38 __ 35.7 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

14 __ 2 __ Jonboy ____________ 46.11 __ 29.6 ______ _ _ _ 7 _ _ _

15__18 __Feb1991Blizzard _____45.17 __ 36.5 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

16__13 __Dog Toffee __________45.10 __ 34.5 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

17__22 __snowray ____________43.90 __ 36.9 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

18__30 __BornFromTheVoid ____43.85 __ 38.8 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

19__34 __Roger J Smith _______ 43.72 __ 40.5 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

20__21 __SteveB _____________43.50 __ 36.9 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

21__ 4 __ThunderyWintryShowers 43.09 __30.5 ______ _ _ _ 7 _ _ _

22__24 __StationaryFront _______42.34 __37.3 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

T23 _35 __davehsug __________ 42.15 __ 40.6 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

T23 _26 __DAVID SNOW _______42.15 __ 37.5 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

25__28 __J10  ________________42.08 __ 38.3 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

26__25 __February1978 ________40.11 __ 37.4 ______ _ _ _ 7 _ _ _

27__23 __brmbrmcar __________ 39.62 __ 37.0 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

28__31 __MidlandsIceAge ______ 39.61 __ 38.9 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

29__19 __DR(S)NO ___________ 38.66 __ 36.5 ______  _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

30__33 __seaside60 ___________38.34 __ 40.5 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

31__32 __Weather26 __________ 37.81 __ 39.9 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

32__38 __Daniel*______________37.54 __ 41.4 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

33__29 __Mr Maunder _________ 36.87 __ 38.6 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

34__39 __Timmytour __________ 35.45 __ 41.7 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

35__40 __CheesePuffScott _____ 34.34 __ 42.0 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

36__41 __weather-history ______ 33.53 __ 42.0 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

37__42 __Relativistic __________32.66 __ 44.0 ______ _ _ _ 7 _ _ _

38__44 __LetItSnow __________ 32.57 __ 47.6 ______ _ _ _ 7 _ _ _

39__ 7 __Stargazer ___________ 31.95 __ 32.5 ______ _ _ _ 6 _ _ _

40__27 __IrememberAtl252 _____31.69 __ 37.8 ______ _ _ _ 7 _ _ _

41__50 __Neil N ______________31.18 __ 58.8 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

42__46 __DiagonalRedLine _____30.39 __ 49.1 ______ _ _ _ 6 _ _ _

43__17 __ProlongedSL ________ 30.30 __ 36.0 ______ _ _ _ 6 _ _ _

44__36 __syed2878 ___________29.14 __ 40.8 ______ _ _ _ 7 _ _ _

45__37 __Sleety _____________ 28.89 __ 41.4 ______ _ _ _ 6 _ _ _

46 __--- __Robbie Garrett ______ 28.74 __(41.0)______ _ _ _ 5 _ _ _

47__43 __Norrance ___________28.34 __ 45.9 ______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

48__45 __Polar Gael __________26.97 __ 48.6 ______ _ _ _ 7 _ _ _

49__47 __KirkcaldyWx ________ 26.22 __ 50.5 ______ _ _ _ 7 _ _ _

50__--- __Kentspur ___________ 25.65 __(33.9)______ _ _ _ 4 _ _ _

51 __--- __Earthshine _________ 22.06 __(28.7)______ _ _ _ 4 _ _ _

52__48 __B87 _______________ 21.61 __ 56.4 ______ _ _ _ 6 _ _ _

55__49 __shillitocettwo ________19.51 __ 58.7 ______  _ _ _ 6 _ _ _

61 __--- __Leo97T ____________14.07 __(49.7)______ _ _ _ 4 _ _ _

63__ --- __summer blizzard _____12.13 __(47.1)______ _ _ _ 4 _ _ _

65__ --- __Jacky _____________ 10.67 __(32.1) ______ _ _ _ 2 _ _ _

81__ --- __Summer Shower _____ 8.15 __ (4.7) _______ _ _ _1 _ _ _

136_ 51 __ Lettucing Gutted ____ 0.78 __156.6 _______ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _

140_--- __ Thundershine _______ 0.16 __604.8 _______ _ _ _ 4 _ _ _

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