July 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

So todays high temp pushed the final figure up by 0.3C here so finishing on 15.6C -1.1C below average. Rainfall there maybe some to come still so will have to wait until tomorrow.

[damianslaw]

Final figure before any adjustment probably 16 or 16.1 degrees. Question is whether official figure is below or above 61-90 average. My hunch will be just below at 15.9 degrees. Today a marked oddity. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP was stuck on 68 mm as of 29th, may have added 1 mm since then and could add another today with most likely finish 69 to 71 mm. 

[feb1991blizzard]

46 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP was stuck on 68 mm as of 29th, may have added 1 mm since then and could add another today with most likely finish 69 to 71 mm. 

Does that mean i could possibly have an outright win? - wont do me much  good yet  in the annual though - too far behind in both now to have a chance of winning - just hoping for a string of fine performances to hall myself up into round about the top 10 right at the end like i did last year.

[Weather-history]

July 2020 is down as 15.7 in the monthly table

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

[Methuselah]

On 21/06/2020 at 09:02, General Cluster said:

As I expect something of an indifferent month, synoptics wise, though with warm air generally, and a constant threat of Spanish plumes (but with nothing like the sunshine-levels of a 1976, 2006 or 2018) I'll go for 17.9C, please, Roger. And 65mm of rain, please.

It seems I did 'marginally' better with rainfall than I did with temperature!

[damianslaw]

Final figure a bit cooler than I expected, looks like we topped out at 16 degrees yesterday but there was a 0.3 downward correction. First below average 61-90 average since November? Can anyone verify this. The CET masks a north - south divide, temps in the south a bit below in first half, around or just above average second half helped by warm minima, whilst further north often appreciably below average throughout especially first half which was more akin to October. Night minima really helped prevent the month from being a notably cool one, maximum temps often some 3-4 degrees below normal for a significant portion of the month. That's the thing with summer months, cool maxima usually come courtesy of westerly airstreams which conversely bring alot of cloud and prevent low minima from happening, from October to April westerlies tend to bring above average maxima and also minima meaning warmer than average months occur.

To get a notably cool summer month you need either a cyclonic pattern with heights locked to the north and low pressure directly overhead bringing very suppressed maxima and a cool feed of air to the north wrapped within, or high pressure anchored to our NW with a cool north/north east airstream direct from off the arctic, to allow average pleasant days but cool nights. Both scenarios require anamolous pattern - a negative NAO with a southerly tracking jet, or blocked omega pattern - hard to come by and sustain in the UK, conversely such synoptics would bring cold winter months, with only a scandi high perhaps beating them.

Edited August 1, 2020 by damianslaw

[Duncan McAlister]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

July 2020 is down as 15.7 in the monthly table

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

That’s cooler than I expected given the past couple of days in England. Below average and one day’s exceptional heat, everybody wins

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 15.7c July 2020 shares the same mean CET with July's:

1765

1766

1771

1820

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Earthshine]

Miles off the mark again this month!

[Don]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

July 2020 is down as 15.7 in the monthly table

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

Talk about the CET not giving the full picture!

[Roger J Smith]

As always, my preliminary report on scoring leaders (CET) is to be confirmed by your CET contest host J10 ... from the table of entries, the top 15 scores would be the following (EWP forecasts shown also, number in brackets is order of entry which breaks ties for equal errors).

Rank _ Fcst __ error _ EWP _ Forecaster

 

_01 __ 15.7 ___0.0 __ ----- __ Kentish Man (54) 

_02 __ 15.6 __--0.1 __ 90.0 _ daniel* (39) 

_03 __ 15.8 __+0.1 _ 110.0 _ Relativistic (L1-3) 

_04 __ 15.5 __--0.2 _ 102.0_ syed2878 (22) 

_05 __ 15.4 __--0.3 _ 110.0_ Summer Blizzard (10) 

_06 __ 15.3 __--0.4 __ 91.0 _ virtualsphere (14) 

_07 __ 16.1 __+0.4 __ 80.0 _ NeilN (23) 

_08 __ 16.3 __+0.6 __ 85.0 _ SteveB (26) 

_09 __ 16.3 __+0.6 __ 97.0 _ prolongedSnowLover (28) 

_10 __ 16.4 __+0.7 __ 80.0 _ I Remember Atlantic252 (36)

_11 __ 16.5 __+0.8 __ 75.0 _ Blast from the Past (27)

_12 __ 16.6 __+0.9 __ 80.0 _ Mulzy (46) 

_13 __ 16.6 __+0.9 __ 77.0 _ February1978 (49) 

_14 __ 16.7 __+1.0 __ 74.0 _ SummerShower (3) 

_15 __ 16.7 __+1.0 __ 60.0 _ Leo97t (37) 

=========================================================

Best combined forecast is likely to go to one of these three -- Blast from the Past, Summer Shower, or Don who had 23rd ranked CET with 68 mm. 

EWP is likely to finish between 69 and 71 mm. Even when it is known in preliminary form it could change again on the 5th by enough to scramble the

first go at EWP scoring, there are many forecasts clustered between 65 and 75 mm. 

Most of these accurate CET forecasts were a bit high on the actual rainfall (their amounts fell over Ireland and southern Scotland however). 

Most of the more accurate EWP forecasts had values around 17 C for their CET components. 

[Roger J Smith]

20 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Does that mean i could possibly have an outright win? - wont do me much  good yet  in the annual though - too far behind in both now to have a chance of winning - just hoping for a string of fine performances to hall myself up into round about the top 10 right at the end like i did last year.

You may be first or any other rank in the top five depending on the number they give tomorrow, and then that won't be confirmed until the 5th and could change things again. Regardless, with 9 to 10 points, you should move up 8-10 spots to around 15th place. Born from the Void and myself are also moving up a little behind your position. IIRC you had 71.1 mm and there were two forecasts at 69 mm but none at 70. If they stick with 68 provisional (on the tracker) after two small amount days I would suspect a final number might be 69-70. So whatever I report tomorrow, would advise waiting to the 5th for confirmation. 

[CheesepuffScott]

On 21/06/2020 at 15:32, CheesepuffScott said:

17.7°C and 78.9mm please

Wet and warm; brief plume event mid month and wetter with some tropical influence later on.

Got something right!

[Radiating Dendrite]

One for future weather nuts! Below average July but with a 100f temperature recorded as well.

[Don]

24 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

One for future weather nuts! Below average July but with a 100f temperature recorded as well.

I know, bizarre isn’t it?!

[Radiating Dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

I know, bizarre isn’t it?!

Sign of the times I think. To achieve a 100f on a one off plume day given how the month had been up to that point is quite something. 

I think our climate is becoming increasingly continental. I think high and low temp extremes are possible in the near future. 

[The PIT]

We only had two days over 25C and those both on 30th and 31st. 26.1C and 33.6C. One day at 34C and the rest low twenties. The day time high was two degrees down on normal while night temps were average give a decimal point.

[Roger J Smith]

Similar to July 1948 in that a late surge of heat failed to move the month into above normal territory. 

Meanwhile it was the second warmest July (and month) at Toronto at 25.4 C, narrowly missing the record of 25.5 set in July 1921. New York City (Central Park) came in at 80.0 F which ranks seventh warmest July (1869 to present). These both rank slightly lower when adjusted for urban heat island, Toronto falls to third with 1868 also warmer in that category. 

We had a relatively normal July until near the end when it also turned very hot here, the last day reached 37 to 38 locally and 44 down in eastern WA and OR. 

Chicago also had a very warm July with an anomaly of +5.2F (+2.9C). 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I think our climate is becoming increasingly continental. I think high and low temp extremes are possible in the near future. 

High temp extremes defo.  Not sure about low extremes, although that would be good!

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Sign of the times I think. To achieve a 100f on a one off plume day given how the month had been up to that point is quite something. 

I think our climate is becoming increasingly continental. I think high and low temp extremes are possible in the near future. 

Not so sure about continental, our climate is very maritime with minimal diurnal range. Predominantly we see westerly airstreams, these have dominated by and large oue weather over recent years, bar a few periods which you may describe as more continental in character, May- July 2018  being a good case in point.

What we are seeing are sudden extreme spells normally of warmth brought on by southerly airstreams, all year round really. The stalling trough scenario out west has become quite a common feature, drawing in a long southerly draw. What we haven't seen much of is long protracted spells of high pressure lasting weeks on end, yes a few examples but  by and large the atlantic has ruled the roost. June and July were very atlantic dominated months. To have a continental climate you either need to create a landmass to our west , or have a jet stream that locks into a buckled flow to our south with a blocked feature to our east. 

Edited August 1, 2020 by damianslaw

[J10]

Downloads

Excel July 20 CET.xlsx

PDF Summary July 20 Summary.pdf

Monthly
The temperature was 15.7c in July 2020, with 1 player getting it spot on - Kentish Man
and 2 players 0.1c out.

This month only 7 were within 0.5c ( compared to 46 players last month)

Seasonal

Some changes this month, with Relativistic 1st (from 11th) and February1978 and Steve B staying 2nd and 3rd.

Overall

A very similar top 3 and generally across the Top 10.

Dancerwithwings stays in 1st, mb018538 remains 2nd with Stationary Front remaining 3rd, with the PIT now 4th from joint 3rd. The rest of the Top 9 is unchanged.

Edited August 1, 2020 by J10

[summer blizzard]

Up to 26th, it might take a pretty bad second half to save me in August though.

[Daniel*]

Finally a great month from me doing quite poorly this year.

[Roger J Smith]

One new record, 23.7 on 31st replaces the 23.4 shared by 1943 and 1995.