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July 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Unlikely now that July will be as cool as expected with the heat later in the week.  

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
47 minutes ago, Don said:

Unlikely now that July will be as cool as expected with the heat later in the week.  

The heat adds barely anything to the CET coming after 3 coolish days. We basically end up where we are now more or less before the usual 0.2-0.4C correction.

Still more than 1C below the 1981-2010 average and with the warm June a victory for first year Nina analogues (assuming one forms technically - right now zone 4 is dragging our official number close to zero).

Roger will have some stats I suspect but the August's following a July of 15.7C or less tend to be little better than average.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP heading for a finish in the 70s, with many of the forecasts close to the landing zone, scoring difficult to estimate this month. The current leaders in the annual scoring are generally a bit higher than consensus and could fall back if the total is low 70s, not so much movement if the outcome is closer to 80 mm. (current value is estimated to be 65 mm to 70 mm with 58 reported through Saturday 25th). 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Despite a one day wonder of heat forecast for 31st, this won't do much to the CET. Next couple of days look distinctly cool everywhere below average max temp wise. Much warmer on Thursday in southern parts then the injection of heat. A cancelling out will happen, so the finish could well be the same figure we are on now, not accounting for any corrections. First below average 61-90 month since November? Not sure. Shame it had to come in July.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

It's a shame we're about to miss out on what could have been the coolest July since 1988.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

15.7c to the 27th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 hours ago, Relativistic said:

It's a shame we're about to miss out on what could have been the coolest July since 1988.

Lol, climate change more often than not has the last hurrah these days!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 15.2C -1.1C below average. Rainfall 73mm 128.1% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
On 28/07/2020 at 10:38, Relativistic said:

It's a shame we're about to miss out on what could have been the coolest July since 1988.

And my answer to your post, R, is simple: Yippee!:yahoo: If there's anything worse than feeling uncomfortably hot, it's feeling uncomfortably cold!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

15.7c to the 28th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Three days of stats left, suspect may stick on 15.7 tomorrow, then a probable climb to 15.9 degrees finishing mark, outside chance 16 degrees. Downward corrections could pull it down to 15.7 degrees. Below average almost a certainty.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

Around 15.5 tops in the zone today, so should be no uptick tomorrow.

Last 2 days will bump it up a tad, then its all down to the mysterious corrections.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I have updated the EWP contest scoring for 70.1 mm, some changes at the top if that (or close) verifies. Since the forecasts are tightly grouped around the probable outcome, I won't post any preliminary tables, just the values as of the 2nd when EWP is first shown in provisional terms.

Several forecasters will move up from ranks in the 20s to teens as a result, if the outcome is below 72 mm. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 15.2C -1.3C below normal. Rainfall 73.1mm 128.2% of the monthly average.

The rainfall should be the final amount for the month with a dry 2nd half most of the rain falling in three days. Temperature wise depending on how strong this brief hot spell is between 15.3C and 15.5C so fairly cool month overall.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

15.7c to the 29th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

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Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

15.7c to the 29th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

Why’s it now going up?  The weather is still crap. My maximum didn’t even reach 15.7 yesterday and I live just down the road from Stonyhurst which is one of the three weather station used for the CET. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
On 28/07/2020 at 10:38, Relativistic said:

It's a shame we're about to miss out on what could have been the coolest July since 1988.

Yes it’s been a very miserable month with average maxima at 16°C here,  around 4° below average here so I’m surprised the CET is not lower. 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Would be interesting to see whether the south-east has warmed faster than elsewhere in the country over the last few decades. The maximum CET especially seems a little too high, and I wonder if this is playing a part.

Edit: Last week I was fully expecting the maximum CET to end up somewhere between 18.5C and 19.0C, but it's risen much more quickly than expected. Away from the south-east maxima have been languishing, so it's a little surprising that we've risen as much as we have. We do, of course, await the all-important corrections.

Edited by Relativistic
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
57 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Would be interesting to see whether the south-east has warmed faster than elsewhere in the country over the last few decades. The maximum CET especially seems a little too high, and I wonder if this is playing a part.

Edit: Last week I was fully expecting the maximum CET to end up somewhere between 18.5C and 19.0C, but it's risen much more quickly than expected. Away from the south-east maxima have been languishing, so it's a little surprising that we've risen as much as we have. We do, of course, await the all-important corrections.

It has actually been reasonably warm in many areas during the second half of the month. Our mean maximum since the 16th has been 20.7C and only 5 days have failed to reach 20C. 6 days have topped 22C.

Our mean maximum for the month so far is 19.2C, exactly the same as in the CET zone. I think its mainly north-western areas that have suffered.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
21 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Why’s it now going up?  The weather is still crap. My maximum didn’t even reach 15.7 yesterday and I live just down the road from Stonyhurst which is one of the three weather station used for the CET. 

What are you talking about?...it's going up because these are anomalies on the cold side of the normal (CET), so if the figures currently go up the colder it is becoming in relation to the norm relating to what series you're looking at - comprendo?

Been very nice down here the last couple of days - but I suppose that's the north/south divide

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny sheffield on 15.3C -1.3C below average.

Big rise today how big though depends on high we go.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

15.8c to the 30th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

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Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
23 hours ago, reef said:

It has actually been reasonably warm in many areas during the second half of the month. Our mean maximum since the 16th has been 20.7C and only 5 days have failed to reach 20C. 6 days have topped 22C.

Our mean maximum for the month so far is 19.2C, exactly the same as in the CET zone. I think its mainly north-western areas that have suffered.

Yes that is correct sadly. My mean maximum for this month is only 16.4°C (average is around 19.5/20.0). Only had one day reach 20°C so far (yesterday). It’s amazing how much of a difference the Pennines make. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
On 30/07/2020 at 13:16, reef said:

It has actually been reasonably warm in many areas during the second half of the month. Our mean maximum since the 16th has been 20.7C and only 5 days have failed to reach 20C. 6 days have topped 22C.

Our mean maximum for the month so far is 19.2C, exactly the same as in the CET zone. I think its mainly north-western areas that have suffered.

Here's the month for London. The 2nd half of July has actually been pretty normal, after the cool, wet and cloudy start.

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Résumé mensuel des observations météo ( températures minimales et maximales, précipitations et ensoleillement) de la station London / Heathrow (UK) ( United...

 

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