July 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests

[Higher Ground]

33 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

As per the annual CET thread we should drop to fourth as a result of the cool July (2017 and 2014 were both warm to this point and 2007 will stay ahead since we will finish lower than 15.8C) however 2007, 2014 and 2017 all had cool Augusts so we have a chance to jump into first for a month before 2006 and 2014 see their thrashing march to victory. 

Interesting comparisons thanks! I've just been on a trip down memory lane to a time when I used to follow these things a little more closely. Specifically I found the July CET thread for 2007! Makes for fascinating reading. A couple of points caught my attention:

Firstly, CET was 15.5c to the 21st July in 2007, so we are actually 0.2c cooler at the same point in July 2020. I'm guessing it will be tough though not impossible to remain cooler for a few days longer...
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/39130-july-cet/page/12

Secondly, people seemed almost more surprised by the cool temperatures then, e.g. a comment in the 2007 thread mentioned that "Philip Eden in today's telegraph was saying that it will be the coldest July for England and Wales since 1993, for some parts it could even be the coldest since 1988, quite some feat in these times of rising temperatures..."
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/39130-july-cet/page/15/

Oh and thirdly there was still talk of a possible plume or 'much warmer southerly draw' in the comments up to 19th July 2007!  
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/39130-july-cet/page/11
(Similar this year in the model thread - significantly warmer weather to end the month still possible, but has been becoming less likely...)

 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Higher Ground

[Roger J Smith]

EWP a little under 50 mm is heading for a total of about 70 mm according to the ten-day GFS (9.5 day actually). Quite close to our consensus forecast and normal values. 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Higher Ground said:

Interesting comparisons thanks! I've just been on a trip down memory lane to a time when I used to follow these things a little more closely. Specifically I found the July CET thread for 2007! Makes for fascinating reading. A couple of points caught my attention:

Firstly, CET was 15.5c to the 21st July in 2007, so we are actually 0.2c cooler at the same point in July 2020. I'm guessing it will be tough though not impossible to remain cooler for a few days longer...
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/39130-july-cet/page/12

Secondly, people seemed almost more surprised by the cool temperatures then, e.g. a comment in the 2007 thread mentioned that "Philip Eden in today's telegraph was saying that it will be the coldest July for England and Wales since 1993, for some parts it could even be the coldest since 1988, quite some feat in these times of rising temperatures..."
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/39130-july-cet/page/15/

Oh and thirdly there was still talk of a possible plume or 'much warmer southerly draw' in the comments up to 19th July 2007!  
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/39130-july-cet/page/11
(Similar this year in the model thread - significantly warmer weather to end the month still possible, but has been becoming less likely...)

 

There are shades of summer 2007 this summer. June 2007 was preety wet with thundery rain at times, no major warmth though unlike the short spell in late June this year. July 2020 certainly mirroring July 2007 on the temperature and sunshine front, though not as wet.

[summer blizzard]

If you ignore the second half of June (the first half was quite cool) it's had more in common with 2011 bar less rain. Dull and endlessly cool struggling much to beat average.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

If you ignore the second half of June (the first half was quite cool) it's had more in common with 2011 bar less rain. Dull and endlessly cool struggling much to beat average.

Yes interesting to note both 2007, 2011 delivered excellent April's just like this year.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back to 14.8C -1.2C degrees below average. Rainfall at 65.7mm 115.3% of the monthly total.

Nothing like 2007 here still managing to take a daily walk after work and 98% of the time I haven't needed a jacket.

 

Edited July 23, 2020 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

15.4c to the 22nd

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

Edited July 23, 2020 by Summer Sun

[summer blizzard]

I wonder if anybody has considered the prospect of sub 07/11 after corrections especially. 

Looking at both models their are small up and down movements for 23rd-26th however afterwards even the Euro does not get the warmer air in until the 31st (and even then mainly in the west) and the GFS would deliver several days of small downward pressure. It seems to me that to the 30th at least we are unlikely to be any higher than we are now. 

[Derecho]

19 hours ago, damianslaw said:

There are shades of summer 2007 this summer. June 2007 was preety wet with thundery rain at times, no major warmth though unlike the short spell in late June this year. July 2020 certainly mirroring July 2007 on the temperature and sunshine front, though not as wet.

2007 was far worse then this Summer, the rainfall in the second half of June 2007 was unprecedented in a wide area of the north-east, July was also exceptionally wet however August wasn't too bad despite being quite cool. This month has been wet at times but not especially so.

This month reminds me of Summer 2011 rather then 2007 and 2012. June was pretty decent as well this year after a poor first week.

 

Edited July 23, 2020 by Quicksilver1989

[Daniel*]

51 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

2007 was far worse then this Summer, the rainfall in the second half of June 2007 was unprecedented in a wide area of the north-east, July was also exceptionally wet however August wasn't too bad despite being quite cool. This month has been wet at times but not especially so.

This month reminds me of Summer 2011 rather then 2007 and 2012. June was pretty decent as well this year after a poor first week.

 

July 2011 was better in London likely to be sunnier than this one which is main metric I go off also Heathrow only had 50mm. Cooler temperatures aren’t an issue in London. 

[Higher Ground]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I wonder if anybody has considered the prospect of sub 07/11 after corrections especially. 

Looking at both models their are small up and down movements for 23rd-26th however afterwards even the Euro does not get the warmer air in until the 31st (and even then mainly in the west) and the GFS would deliver several days of small downward pressure. It seems to me that to the 30th at least we are unlikely to be any higher than we are now. 

Yes I was considering that possibility quite seriously, especially if my hunch is correct that relatively cool minima seem to result in a bigger correction sometimes. However, the last few model runs have increasingly seemed to suggest that chances will be scuppered at the final hurdle - even if the night of 30/31st is average under high pressure, a hot sunny day on 31st would be likely to tip the balance away from a more notably low CET.

[damianslaw]

CET stuttering along at the moment, no concerted climb looking likely, a finish below 16 degrees looking increasingly likely factoring in the possibility of downward corrections. Slight chance may just nudge into the 16s, but my hunch is a finish in the high 15s at best.

[summer blizzard]

40 minutes ago, Higher Ground said:

Yes I was considering that possibility quite seriously, especially if my hunch is correct that relatively cool minima seem to result in a bigger correction sometimes. However, the last few model runs have increasingly seemed to suggest that chances will be scuppered at the final hurdle - even if the night of 30/31st is average under high pressure, a hot sunny day on 31st would be likely to tip the balance away from a more notably low CET.

We don't get 10C uppers until the 31st so it won't impact the CET by more than 0.1C. The CET is not likely to rise to the 30th beyond where we are now thus a 0.3C correction probably does.

[Summer Sun]

15.4c to the 23rd

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average
1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 14.9C -1.2C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

May even catch up central cet  in a few days which isn't normal.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15C -1.1C below normal. Rainfall 67mm 117.5% of the monthly average.

No chance of making avergae but looking at finishing between 15.1C to 15.4C

[Summer Sun]

15.5c to the 24th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.1C -1.1C below normal. Rainfall up 67.5mm 118.4% of rainfall.

[Summer Sun]

15.6c to the 25th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

[summer blizzard]

Gavin in the other realm estimates a finish of 15.44C.

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Gavin in the other realm estimates a finish of 15.44C.

Before or after corrections?

[damianslaw]

Despite what might be a one day injection of heat come 31st,  July 2020 will go down as a month devoid of any appreciable month, for northern parts and Scotland maximum temp wise distinctly below average.

[summer blizzard]

10 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Before or after corrections?

After I think.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.2C -1.1C below normal. Rainfall 68.1mm 119.5% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 26th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th