July 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests

[B87]

4 hours ago, Earthshine said:

This summer isn't finished yet.  If we get a cracking August this poor July will soon be forgotten I reckon.  

Just wait until August gives us 14c and 100mm.

[Relativistic]

11 minutes ago, B87 said:

Just wait until August gives us 14c and 100mm.

Last time August was that cold was 1986. Would take a lot for that to happen. 100mm not so out of the question.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 14.6C -1.0C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

15.4c to the 17th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update ... current value about 39 mm ... GFS suggests 35 mm will fall next ten days, maps for days 11-13 have perhaps 10 mm more, that gives a total of about 84 mm. 

CET won't move much, the pattern is set to be quite cool for late July. 

Will open the August thread overnight, should be there around 0600h. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.8C -0.9C below normal. Rainfall up to 65.1mm 114.2% of normal.

[Summer Sun]

15.5c to the 18th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

[summer blizzard]

Global Warming in the other realm is estimating 15.78C to months end (no idea if that's post or pre corrections). 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 14.8C -1.0C below normal. Rainfall at 65.1mm 114.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

15.5c to the 19th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

[Don]

20 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Global Warming in the other realm is estimating 15.78C to months end (no idea if that's post or pre corrections). 

 

Think it’s safe to say my 16.9C is out of reach now!

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

15.5c to the 19th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

Expected to be at 15.5 at this stage. May see a drop in next couple of days thanks to cool nights, then a slight rebound before week is out. Good chance we might not even get into the 16s.. finishing mark probably in the 15.8- 16.4 degree range based on current outlook. Outside range 15.5 - 16.6 degrees.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 14.8c -1.0C below average rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

15.4c to the 20th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

[cheeky_monkey]

cloudy Edmonton is at 15.3c to the 20th which is 2.4c below normal..rainfall is at 80mm

[damianslaw]

As expected a slight drop today, expect a possible further drop tomorrow, outlook then suggests no substantive rise, indeed a finish in the 15s looks a decent bet. Anything above 16.5 degrees now out of the question. 

[summer blizzard]

A finish in the low 15C seems probable after corrections. There are three days which might squeeze out a rise set against six which will either stay static or cause a fall.

Would definitely bet on the 15.7-15.1 range.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.7C -1.2C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

15.3c to the 20th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th & 12th

[Relativistic]

The minimum and maximum CETs have closed in on their respective anomalies since the opening third of the month. The maximum CET was sitting at 17.5C to the 10th, which is very low indeed, but has increased to 18.7C to the 21st. Minima have decreased from 12.4C on the 10th to the current value of 11.9C to the 22nd, thanks to some cool July nights. The net effect on the mean figure is that we've seen a small increase from 15.1C on the 10th to the current figure of 15.3C, which is unlikely to move much before the month is out.

It's a shame that maxima didn't sustain their very low values, as a sub-18C mean July maximum is very rare. The final figure is likely to end up somewhere around the 18.5C mark: easily the coolest of the century and likely the coolest since 1988 (18.1C).

Edited July 22, 2020 by Relativistic

[Earthshine]

38 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

The minimum and maximum CETs have closed in on their respective anomalies since the opening third of the month. The maximum CET was sitting at 17.5C to the 10th, which is very low indeed, but has increased to 18.7C to the 21st. Minima have decreased from 12.4C on the 10th to the current value of 11.9C to the 22nd, thanks to some cool July nights. The net effect on the mean figure is that we've seen a small increase from 15.1C on the 10th to the current figure of 15.3C, which is unlikely to move much before the month is out.

It's a shame that maxima didn't sustain their very low values, as a sub-18C mean July maximum is very rare. The final figure is likely to end up somewhere around the 18.5C mark: easily the coolest of the century and likely the coolest since 1988 (18.1C).

Quite a remarkable month then.  Just goes to show that, despite a warming climate, anomalously cold months can and do still occur.

[Relativistic]

38 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Quite a remarkable month then.  Just goes to show that, despite a warming climate, anomalously cold months can and do still occur.

What's interesting is that this July may be a consequence of the warming climate. Arctic sea ice is doing terribly at the moment, and this may be influencing the anomalously cold sea-surface temperatures in the north Atlantic. Our north-westerlies have been subject to less thermal modulation as a consequence, which has led to some of the very cool minima and maxima we've seen this month. Even some air frosts in a select few spots.

Edited July 22, 2020 by Relativistic

[Don]

2 hours ago, Relativistic said:

What's interesting is that this July may be a consequence of the warming climate. Arctic sea ice is doing terribly at the moment, and this may be influencing the anomalously cold sea-surface temperatures in the north Atlantic. Our north-westerlies have been subject to less thermal modulation as a consequence, which has led to some of the very cool minima and maxima we've seen this month. Even some air frosts in a select few spots.

Interesting indeed.  Trouble is, we will need a rapid re-freeze during autumn, otherwise the winter northerlies will be somewhat feeble?!  However, that's for another topic really.

[Higher Ground]

3 hours ago, Relativistic said:

What's interesting is that this July may be a consequence of the warming climate. Arctic sea ice is doing terribly at the moment, and this may be influencing the anomalously cold sea-surface temperatures in the north Atlantic. Our north-westerlies have been subject to less thermal modulation as a consequence, which has led to some of the very cool minima and maxima we've seen this month. Even some air frosts in a select few spots.

This is something I had been looking at myself - noticed a similarity to 2007 with both CET and arctic sea ice area:

CET June and July 2007: 15.1c and 15.2c
CET June and July 2020: 15.3c and 15.3c (provisional to 21st)

Arctic sea ice area June 2007: 8.2 million sq km
Arctic sea ice area June 2020: 8.4 million sq km
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/bist ('Sea Ice Conc' gives area)

- Note that sea ice more concentrated this year hence higher area but lower extent in June. Probably both lower now due to big July losses.
- CET averages for first half of year were 9.7c for January-June 2007 and 9.6c for January-June 2020
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

 

 

 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Higher Ground

[summer blizzard]

20 minutes ago, Higher Ground said:

- CET averages for first half of year were 9.7c for January-June 2007 and 9.6c for January-June 2020
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

 

 

 

As per the annual CET thread we should drop to fourth as a result of the cool July (2017 and 2014 were both warm to this point and 2007 will stay ahead since we will finish lower than 15.8C) however 2007, 2014 and 2017 all had cool Augusts so we have a chance to jump into first for a month before 2006 and 2014 see their thrashing march to victory. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by summer blizzard