July 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests

[I remember Atlantic 252]

14 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Surprised it’s that high to be honest. My mean MAX temperature so far this month is only around 15°C. It’s been an absolutely disgusting start to July this year, the worst I can remember.

be okay for March, but for NW England summer not guaranteed past June, westerlies rule

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.7C -0.2C below average. Rainfall 23.2mm 40.7% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

15.4c to the 7th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.4c to the 7th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.4C -0.6C below average. Rainfall 52.1mm 91.4% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

15.3c to the 8th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.3c to the 8th

[summer blizzard]

FI but the GFS and Euro runs today are probably a tad more concerning for high rainfall levels with lows closer and slower to the UK.

Because our warm spell has been diluted significantly it also looks like the CET will probably not even breach 16C before the Atlantic arrives around the 17th according on today's runs.

I would suggest that even with a late month hot spell those at 17C or above are probably out of the competition this month and those below 16C must be feeling optimistic.

15.8 __110.0_ Relativistic (L1-3) _____________

15.7 __ ----- _ Kentish Man (54) _____________

15.6 __ 90.0 _ daniel* (39) _________________ 

15.5 __102.0_ syed2878 (22) _______________ 

15.4 __110.0_ Summer Blizzard (10) _________ 

15.3 __ 91.0 _ virtualsphere (14) ____________ 

12.3 _1304.0 _ Thundershine (13) __

 

Still time for modelling to screw us of course.

 

[Roger J Smith]

I see what you mean, those of us with higher forecasts for CET will have to hope the GFS is showing its usual cold bias in the ten to sixteen day range. Not sure if Thundershine was kidding with his EWP forecast or left out a decimal, if he's closest on that then the country will be under water by 31st of July. (only needs 752.1 mm to edge out LG).

Edited July 9, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[cheeky_monkey]

soggy Edmonton stands at 14.7c to the 8th which is exactly 3c below normal..had 50mm rain to date which is about 65% of the normal total for July.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 14C -1.1C below normal. Rainfall 62.4mm 109.5% of the monthly average.

[snowray]

That's a big drop there for Sheffield, down 0.4c in one day, in contrast to the CET zone which was quite mild yesterday. The colder air has dug south though today, feeling a lot fresher everywhere and last nights lows were under 10c in quite a few places. 

[Earthshine]

Getting 2011 vibes this year where the mean maximum temperature has stayed pretty much the same since April.  Hopefully that means a mild September and October.

[Summer Sun]

15.3c to the 9th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.3c to the 8th & 9th

[Roger J Smith]

EWP currently about 36 mm (30 mm to 8th and about 6 mm on average for the grid yesterday). Next ten days only adds about 10 mm, the days beyond 20th look potentially rather wet, 20-30 mm at least. That all adds up to 66-76 mm by late stages of the month. 

[Weather26]

And Sheffield is already way above the EWP in terms of rainfall! Not looking great for the late stages if that comes off! 

[Summer Sun]

15.1c to the 10th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.1c to the 10th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14C -1.1C below average. Rainfall 62.5mm 109.6% of the monthly average.

[snowray]

Temps as low as 5c recorded last night in a few places from the Midlands south, that's pretty chilly for mid July. Think we have reached the low point now in the month, but how high can we go? That 17c to the 1st may turn out to be the high for the month unless we get some sort of extended heatwave, which remains possible I suppose.

[East Lancs Rain]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

15.1c to the 10th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.1c to the 10th

Lower than 2012 and 2007’s CET, might be a chance we could below 15?

[snowray]

3 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Lower than 2012 and 2007’s CET, might be a chance we could below 15?

We got to 20/21c in a few places this afternoon but the north remained chilly and after last nights low temps I think that we could well dip under the 15c, more likely a drop of just 0.01c today though.

[summer blizzard]

Gavin in the other realm is estimating 16.1C to the 25th however the first half could end up the coolest since 2004.

[DAVID SNOW]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Gavin in the other realm is estimating 16.1C to the 25th however the first half could end up the coolest since 2004.

Who is he?

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Who is he?

Guy that runs their CET competition but actually calculates from recent runs. Hence why the estimates are useful.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 14C, -1.2C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

At the moment the rise in the day time average is being cancelled out by cooler nights. This will stop by Monday and I expect a slow rise from then on.

[damianslaw]

26 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield still at 14C, -1.2C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

At the moment the rise in the day time average is being cancelled out by cooler nights. This will stop by Monday and I expect a slow rise from then on.

Not so sure will be a definite rise just yet, maxes over next few days look average, bit below still, yes some milder mins but under clearer skies these will be low still. Might still be held in low 15s by this time next week, then most likely a probable rise if current models verify. At this stage I can't see the CET finishing up higher than 17 degrees, a last third heatwave won't be enough. Safe bet a finish in the 16s and every equal chance could be in the 15s.

[Summer Sun]

15.0c to the 11th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.0c to the 11th