July 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests

[JeffC]

9 hours ago, B87 said:

My prediction looks to have collapsed already, on day 3.

Nah it'll rise a bit yet

[Summer Sun]

15.5c to the 3rd

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.5c to the 3rd

[The PIT]

Interesting start day temperatures well below average night-time well above average overall just below average for the time of year.

[Don]

51 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Interesting start day temperatures well below average night-time well above average overall just below average for the time of year.

A little like July and August 2008, where temperature wise they were close to average.  However, both were very poor months, particularly August.

[East Lancs Rain]

3 hours ago, Don said:

A little like July and August 2008, where temperature wise they were close to average.  However, both were very poor months, particularly August.

Yep. The CET can be very misleading sometimes as thick cloud and rain often keeps the temperature up at night but suppressed by day.

Edited July 4, 2020 by East Lancs Rain

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Yep. The CET can be very misleading sometimes as thick cloud and rain often keeps the temperature up at night but suppressed by day.

Yes westerly airstreams, which can dominate July and August usually produce CET average or just a little below, the cool maxima cancelled out by the mild minima. Our perceptions of a summer month are far more determined by maxima rather than minima.

SW airstream months can produce high CET values without any appreciable high maxima, low-mid 20s maxima, and very mild minima mid,-high teens.

Cool CET Julys and Augusts tend to be associated with NW and northerly airstreams, with some ridge development producing cool nights. On rare occasions cool CET months come courtesy of high latitude blocking and a more pronounced NE flow, think Aug 86, but these are rare persistant features.

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 4th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.5c to the 3rd

[summer blizzard]

GW in the other realm is estimating around 16.1C to the 19th albeit that requires a more or less sustained warm up from the 12th as modelling currently shows.

The final third will certainly be interesting.

[East Lancs Rain]

9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

15.7c to the 4th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.5c to the 3rd

It’s misleading though, as the current maximum CET temperature is actually 1.5°C below the 61 to 90 average, and the minimum CET temperature is around 2.0°C above the 61 to 90 average.  So mild nights making up for cool days. But maxima is far more important than minima to most people, especially in summer. 

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, East Lancs Rain said:

It’s misleading though, as the current maximum CET temperature is actually 1.5°C below the 61 to 90 average, and the minimum CET temperature is around 2.0°C above the 61 to 90 average.  So mild nights making up for cool days. But maxima is far more important than minima to most people, especially in summer. 

Minima are just as much a part of the CET as the maxima though. For example, my grass is growing like crazy at the moment because despite the day time maxima being disappointing, the nights have been mild and generally not dropping below 12/13C. That rapid growth would not happen if the nights were cool.

[East Lancs Rain]

4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Minima are just as much a part of the CET as the maxima though. For example, my grass is growing like crazy at the moment because despite the day time maxima being disappointing, the nights have been mild and generally not dropping below 12/13C. That rapid growth would not happen if the nights were cool.

The mild nights certainly aren’t helping the temperature in my house though, which is still cool. I find sunshine and warm days is much better at warming up the house than cloudy damp days and mild nights.

[damianslaw]

Cooler nights forecast over the coming days, expect the CET to drop.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 15.1C +0.3C above average.Rainfall 17.2mm 30.2% of the monthly rainfall.

[Summer Sun]

15.8c to the 5th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.5c to the 3rd

[mb018538]

My CET guess is already looking ropey! Going to be out to mid month below average....i'll need a decent warm spell to help me out this time! Could be my first duff entry of the comp!

[Roger J Smith]

First report on EWP, 12 mm to 4th, probably added 2 mm or so on 5th (a bit of rain in northern England mainly), then GFS shows 15-20 mm average over the grid for the next ten days, and maps for days 11-16 look rather dry (5-10 mm possibly). All told, that takes the EWP into the 34-44 mm range by the 22nd. 

Would expect the CET to undergo a slow but steady increase after the end of this week, into the 16.5-17.0 range. 

[damianslaw]

CET probably bottom out by the weekend a bit below average, and then a slow gradual rise through the following week if current forecasts verify, but nothing particularly warm on the horizon next 10 days. Last 2 months have seen a commonality with a very warm mid-latter part of the month..

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 15C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall at 17.2mm 30.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

15.6c to the 6th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.5c to the 3rd

[summer blizzard]

We've probably had some recent ones that I've forgotten but are there any July's since 2012 that had sub 16C first halves or first thirds.

Edited July 7, 2020 by summer blizzard

[Relativistic]

57 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

We've probably had some recent ones that I've forgotten but are there any July's since 2012 that had sub 16C first halves or first thirds.

Defining first half as 1st-16th then 2016 fits the bill (15.6C). As for opening thirds, defined as 1st-10th, we have 2014 (15.8C), 2016 (15.7C), and 2019 (15.9C).

[summer blizzard]

We should beat all those first thirds (do you have the 1st-10th figures for 07, 11, 12?) although we can't guarantee beating 2016 for the first half.

[DAVID SNOW]

Went for a forecast of 17.2, cool first half warmer second.

[Relativistic]

4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

We should beat all those first thirds (do you have the 1st-10th figures for 07, 11, 12?) although we can't guarantee beating 2016 for the first half.

2007: 14.9C

2011: 15.3C

2012: 15.5C

[East Lancs Rain]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

15.6c to the 6th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.5c to the 3rd

Surprised it’s that high to be honest. My mean MAX temperature so far this month is only around 15°C. It’s been an absolutely disgusting start to July this year, the worst I can remember.