July 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests

[mulzy]

16.6C and 80 mm please.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I'll go for 17.8c please.

[Mark Bayley]

17.2c please

[February1978]

16.6c and 77mm please

[mb018538]

17.1c and 74mm please!

[Don]

16.9C and 68mm, please.  Not a classic July but neither a washout either.

[Midlands Ice Age]

17.1C and 57mms please

MIA

[davehsug]

17.3C & 69mm please.

[Kentish Man]

15.7C cheers

[damianslaw]

Seems we are in a cycle of warmer than average months, so fully expect the same thing to happen in July. However, not by much, let's go 16.8 degrees. Could mirror June, a generally cool first half, perhaps a shot of heat second half. 

[Duncan McAlister]

17.1 for me please

[J10]

17.3c and 80mm

So IMO a warm but wettish July, to match June.

[emmett garland]

17.6 and 54mm please

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for July 2020

_ number in brackets shows the order of entry for last edited forecast _

_ forecasts that are one day late have L1- orders of entry starting L1-1 ...

... later entries will be edited in, until cut-off end of Friday 3rd. ...

 

CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER ______________ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER

22.0 _ 200.0 _ Lettucing Gutted (8) _________ 17.1 __64.0_ snowray (25) ______________ 

19.3 __ 80.2 _ Polar Gael (2) ______________ 17.1 __ 91.5 _ 2010cold (43) ____________

18.5 __ 78.0 _ bobd29 (12) ________________17.1 __ 74.0 _ mb018538 (50) ___________ 

18.2 __ 60.1 _ DogToffee (21) _____________ 17.1 __ 57.0 _ Midlands Ice Age (52) ______ 

18.1 __ 71.6 _ Roger J Smith (9) ___________ 17.1 __-----_ Duncan McAlister (56) _______ 

18.0 __ 68.0 _ Twilight (11) _______________ 17.0 __100.0_ DR(S)NO (19) _____________  

18.0 __ 45.0 _ B87 (20) __________________ 17.0 __125.0_ Shillitocettwo (24) __________ 

17.9 __ 65.0 _ General Cluster (4) __________17.0 __ 91.0 _ Norrance (38) _____________ 

17.8 __ ----- _ Walsall Wood Snow (47) ______17.0 __ 83.0 _ Reef (40) _________________ 

17.8 __ 58.0 _ seaside 60 (L1-2) ___________ 17.0 __ 71.5 _ Jacky^ (L1-5) ______________

17.7 __ 56.0 _ Let It Snow! (1) _____________ 16.9 __ 73.0 _ stargazer (31) ______________ 

17.7 __ 78.9 _ CheesepuffScott (7) _________ 16.9 __ 79.0 _ weather-history (32) _________ 

17.7 __ 77.0 _ Godber1 (59) ______________

17.6 __ 60.0 _ The PIT(33) _______________ 16.9 __ 75.0 _ jonboy (41) _________________

17.6 __ ----- _ dancerwithwings (35) ________ 16.9 __ 68.0 _ Don (51) ___________________ 

17.6 __ 54.0 _ Emmett Garland (58) ________ 16.8 __ 91.0 _ Timmytour (17) _____________ 

17.5 __ 71.1 _ Feb1991Blizzard (45) _______ 16.8 __ 62.4 _ Thundery Wintry Showers (18) __ 

17.4 __ 79.0 _ Earthshine (5) _____________ 16.8 __ 57.0 _ Mr Maunder (44) _____________ 

17.4 __ 69.0 _ JeffC (15) _________________16.8 __ ----- _ damianslaw (55) _____________

17.4 __ 51.0 _ brmbrmcar (16) ____________ 16.8 __ 70.9 _ 1990-2019 average __________ 

17.4 __ ----- _ Man with Beard (42) _________ 16.7 __ 67.3 _ 1981-2010 average  __________ 

17.3 __ ----- _ Sundog (30) _______________ 16.7 __ 74.0 _ SummerShower (3) __________ 

17.3 __ 69.0 _ davehsug (53) _____________ 16.7 __ 60.0 _ Leo97t (37) _________________ 

17.3 __ 80.0 _ J10 (57) __________________ 16.6 __ 80.0 _ Mulzy (46) __________________

17.2 __ 92.4 _ Weather 26 (6) _____________16.6 __ 77.0 _ February1978 (49) ____________ 

17.2 __ 86.0 _ Stationary Front (29) ________ 16.5 __ 75.0 _ Blast from the Past (27) ________ 

17.2 __ 73.0 _ Born From The Void (34) _____ 16.4 __ 80.0 _ I Remember Atlantic252 (36) ____ 

17.2 __ ----- _ Mark Bayley (48) ____________16.3 __ 85.0 _ SteveB (26) _________________ 

17.2 __ ----- _ DAVID SNOW (L1-1) ________ 16.3 __ 97.0 _ prolongedSnowLover (28) ______ 

17.2 __ ----- _ Summer Sun (L1-4) _________ 16.1 __ 80.0 _ NeilN (23) __________________ 

_____________________________________ 15.8 __110.0_ Relativistic (L1-3) _____________

________________________________ 15.7 __ ----- _ Kentish Man (54) _____________

________________________________ 15.6 __ 90.0 _ daniel* (39) _________________ 

17.1 __ 77.0 _ consensus ________________15.5 __102.0_ syed2878 (22) _______________ 

_____________________________________ 15.4 __110.0_ Summer Blizzard (10) _________ 

_____________________________________ 15.3 __ 91.0 _ virtualsphere (14) ____________ 

_____________________________________ 12.3 _1304.0 _ Thundershine (13) ___________

59 on time forecasts, plus five marked one day late, total of 64 so far ... consensus (median) 17.1

______________________________________________________ 

EWP forecasts in order

1304 Thun ... 200 LG ... 125 Shil ... 110 SB, Rel^ ... 102 syed ... 100 DR(S) ... 97 pSL

 92.4 wx26 ... 91.5 2010cold ... 91 virt, Tim, Norr ...  90 dan*  ... 86 SF ... 85 Ste ... 83 Reef

 80.2 PG ... 80 NN, IRemA, Mul, J10, DS^ ... 79 Earth, wx-h ... 78.9 CPS ... 78 Bobd

 77 Feb78, godb ... 75 BFTP, jon ... 74 SumSh, mb ... 73 star, BFTV ... 71.6 RJS ... 71.5 jacky^

 71.1 Feb91 .. 70.9 90-19 ... 69 Jeff, dave ... 68 Twi, Don ... 67.3 81-10 ... 65 GC ... 64 snow

 62.4 TWS .. 60.1 DT .. 60 PIT, Leo ..58 sea^.. 57 MrM, MIA .. 56 LIS .. 54 EG .. 51 brm .. 45 B87

________________________________________________

51 on time forecasts, four more one day late (marked ^)

... consensus (median) 77 mm.

Edited July 1, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Godber 1]

17.7c and 77mm please.

[DAVID SNOW]

Bit late.

17.2.

80mm..

[seaside 60]

17.8C

58MM

[Relativistic]

A late 15.8C and 110mm.

[Summer Sun]

17.2c for me please

[Metwatch]

Bit late but will enter the competition. my entry:

CET: 17.0

EWP:71.5mm

Reasoning/Details:

With precipitation, it again looks like to fall mostly in the first half, slightly drier second half, thundery in between maybe. However this month i imagine if could be slightly wetter but still, with a lot of dry weather featured, noteworthingly in the South. The EWP likely exaggerated/higher than expected as the north and west gets a near continuous battering of rain from the atlantic giving some quite high totals, hence impacting the EWP(large area it covers) for the first week. The possible thundery element could help increase that EWP too later.

The CET looks a bit easier, first half of june looks quite average/ slightly cooler with altnernating cooler/warmer spells. however second half, like June could feature some particularly warmer air drifiting to the Uk bumping up the CET but unsure how much just yet,

[Roger J Smith]

July CET 1981-2010 averages, and extremes 1772-2019 with running CET extremes

date _ CET _ (cum) ____ Max, Min 1772-2019 ________ Running CET extremes 1772-2019

01 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773) _____ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773)

02 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.3 (1821) _____ 22.9 (1976) __ 11.0 (1907)

03 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (1976) __ 10.1 (1907) _____ 23.4 (1976) __ 10.7 (1907)

04 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 ___ 24.7 (1976) __ 10.0 (1965) _____ 23.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907)

05 __ 16.4 __ 16.0 ___ 24.0 (1852) __ 10.7 (1920) _____ 23.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907)

06 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 ___ 23.3 (1976) __ 11.3 (1877) _____ 23.7 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907) 

07 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 __ 22.6 (1923,1976) _ 11.1 (1877) ___23.5 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

08 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 __ 21.4 (1870,1976) _ 10.6 (1823) ___23.3 (1976) __ 11.5 (1907)

09 __ 16.3 __ 16.2 ___ 21.6 (1921) __ 11.0 (1856) _____ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

10 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 ___ 22.1 (1921) __ 11.2 (1993) _____ 22.3 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

11 __ 16.7 __ 16.3 ___ 22.6 (1783) ___ 9.4 (1888) _____ 22.0 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

12 __ 16.5 __ 16.3 ___ 23.7 (1923) __ 11.0 (1840) _____ 21.9 (1976) __ 11.7 (1907)

13 __ 16.6 __ 16.3 ___ 24.5 (1808) __ 10.2 (1840) _____ 21.6 (1976) __ 11.8 (1907)

14 __ 16.8 __ 16.3 ___ 24.4 (1808) __ 11.7 (1961) _____ 21.4 (1976) __ 12.2 (1907)

15 __ 17.0 __ 16.4 ___ 23.7 (1825) __ 11.5 (1883) _____ 21.2 (1976) __ 12.4 (1879)

16 __ 16.8 __ 16.4 ___ 22.7 (2003) __ 11.5 (1823) _____ 21.0 (1976) __ 12.5 (1879)

17 __ 16.3 __ 16.4 ___ 22.3 (1834) __ 11.0 (1892) _____ 20.7 (1976) __ 12.6 (1879)

18 __ 16.5 __ 16.4 ___ 23.3 (1825) __ 10.1 (1863) _____ 20.6 (1976) __ 12.8 (1879)

19 __ 16.9 __ 16.4 ___ 24.5 (2006) __ 10.6 (1892) _____ 20.5 (1976) __ 12.9 (1879)

20 __ 17.2 __ 16.5 ___ 23.5 (2016) ___ 8.7 (1836) _____ 20.3 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

21 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.1 (1868) __ 11.3 (1902) _____ 20.0 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

22 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.2 (1868) __ 11.5 (1902) _____ 19.8 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

23 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 22.5 (2019) __ 10.1 (1843) _____ 19.6 (1976) __ 13.1 (1879)

24 __ 16.6 __ 16.5 ___ 23.9 (1818) __ 11.1 (1843) _____ 19.5 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

25 __ 17.0 __ 16.6 ___ 25.2 (2019) __ 10.9 (1920) _____ 19.6 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

26 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 23.2 (2006) __ 11.0 (1884) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

27 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 22.5 (2018) __ 10.6 (1867) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

28 __ 17.4 __ 16.6 ___ 23.7 (1948) __ 11.8 (1886,1891) __19.8 (2006) __ 13.2 (1879)

29 __ 17.7 __ 16.7 ___ 25.2 (1948) __ 11.0 (1816) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1879)

30 __ 17.4 __ 16.7 ___ 23.1 (1948) __ 10.6 (1786) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816)

31 __ 17.2 __ 16.7 __ 23.4 (1943,1995) __ 10.9 (1841) __19.7 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816)

_________________________________________________

The most recent daily minimum record was 4th July 1965, since then we have broken or tied 14 daily maxima.

Note also, only three years now hold a daily running CET record high, and 1976 grabbed 2nd to 23rd. 2006 has the rest of the month.

Only four years share any part of lowest running daily mean, 1879 held on until the 29th but was nipped at the finish by 1816 ...

... 1907 does not look like much of a month to sit around outside either especially the first half of it. 

Edited July 2, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

17.0c to the 1st

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 17.0c to the 1st

[Don]

9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

17.0c to the 1st

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 17.0c to the 1st

That's certainly warmer than I thought yesterday would be.  Mild night I suppose.

[Summer Sun]

16.2c to the 2nd

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.0c to the 1st
Current low this month 16.2c to the 2nd

[B87]

My prediction looks to have collapsed already, on day 3.