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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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5 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I personally think there is a chance overnight, all this heat which is 3c over what they expected could spark off something closer to our shores or storms in France could graze us.

Arome 06z does not think so.

The other thing is the Cold Front is racing in from the west already just west of Bristol, if this can keep away more of a chance to hold the plume longer.

You never know if its quicker it might ignite some cells as well

Hi Paul, I’m in Stroud, Glos, and it’s very warm here. Any chance the storm risk may extend further south of the Midlands, I’m sure it’s warmer than predicted? Or am just going to see clouds bubble up and drift away north without any action! 

Edited by SilverWolf
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This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramp

My view of the Bude cell   Edit:excuse the washing

Very impressive lightning display here in Scotland in the early hours. I am just a amateur photographer but I am pleased with what I managed to capture. Here is a selection of all the best ones I got.

Posted Images

6 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I personally think there is a chance overnight

I hope not or at least before 12am it was already a struggle today to get to sleep I don't want to have a repeat today ?

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2 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Hi Paul, I’m in Stroud, Glos, and it’s very warm here. Any chance the storm risk may extend further south of the Midlands, I’m sure it’s warmer than predicted? Or am just going to see clouds bubble up and drift away north without any action! 

I really think like the most of Southern Britain we will be the breeding ground unfortunately - hope for something further south to initiate

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17 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

Does any one know.. how far is lightning actually visible at night?  I am in Basingstoke, a good 25m inland and 2am today saw distant lightning to the s/se, even heard the faintest of thunder.  However lightning was nowhere near on the sferic maps..the closest was about 10m of the w Sussex coast at this point.  Just wondering if anyone can clarify?  Thanks 

I can see lightning over Brecon which is a good 40 miles or so from here, but only from the nearest hill.

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40 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I really like that area and know Dan is chasing there today, sadly other commitments curtail me but would be all over that Kings Lynn Risk.

Its 2c warmer here already than yesterdays top temperature, partly down to a southerly wind today and easterly yesterday

Would be my target area as well (accidents on the A47 notwithstanding!) 

Missed out last week due to sheer laziness but might make the effort today. 

Going back to historical weather patterns, my father's (yet unpublished) book on the geographical history of East Anglia mentions the East Anglian Boulder Clay Plateau - "Further corroboration of the findings of the Land Utilisation Survey on local weather conditions is found in the above (contemporary) writings (Woodforde et al); many of them record the severe winters on the plateau, thus accounting for the low mean temperatures per annum. Thunderstorms are reported to be a feature of most summers causing local variations in rainfall."

 

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4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Could also be an initiation zone near the Chilterns NW Of London looking at the sat - Dunno what that smudge of cloud is following the coastline of Southern Britain as well, very strange.

Btw some were commenting on that spiral of storms off the South Coast last night near Brighton, smartie on Ukww has done a nice post on its formation noting it was an MCV (Mescoscale Convective Vortex) which initiated within the MCS that came out of France last night - Good reading 

its annoying that's what it is, its lapping over the coast keeping it much, much cooler. 5miles inland its 3-5C warmer. Its a low stratus.

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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

its annoying that's what it is, its lapping over the coast keeping it much, much cooler. 5miles inland its 3-5C warmer. Its a low stratus.

Its gunna fill in the gap and reach the french coast soon - Hate low Stratus, pointless cloud

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Sun's just about to break through here in W Yorks, I wonder how fast the wet ground will dry and just how muggy it'll feel?

Feel like there's been some 'forecast drift' from what I was seeing yesterday esp. temps?

Avante!

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Well the low status has broken here to show some Ac Cas above, more instability than I saw last night....

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47 minutes ago, congerball said:

Fingers crossed some of us get the jackpot ?

Currently feeling very warm, still and humid In Harrogate (N.Yorks) Mammatus clouds above ? 

Car and camera ready....I’m a complete noob so hopefully I’ll get lucky ?

Good luck to all.

 

Benjamin 

ill be out with Arron and Finney.......

 

should be intersting! 

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There may have been rain earlier in the morning but there was definitely was no thunder and lightning.  I thought it would be it good to hope.  I hope things will change tonight and that the barometer pressure will continue to fall.

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Sun out now warming up but no sign of any instability. What temp is needed to kick things off

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Havent got a weather station however i have an electric thermometer positioned in the shade down the garden here and is reading 30.1c in Tamworth, Staffordshire.

Even accounting for warmer bias of perhaps 2c microclimate of garden it is much warmer than forecast and feels as hot as hottest point yesterday. Thermo is shaded by a material gazebo but its not underneath it.

Storm game changer?

For those further north - i currently have odd towering cumulus/cumulonimbus to the south

Edited by Paceyboy
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Had sun all morning here, cu popping for a couple of hours now, 27C bit of a breeze, guess another day of breeding storms for those further North.

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Having said upthread how warm it feels in Stroud, Glos, and hour later there’s a fresher wind in the mix now. Very warm when still, but noticeably cooler when it blows. 

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2 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

Havent got a weather station however i have an electric thermometer positioned in the shade down the garden here and is reading 30.1c in Tamworth, Staffordshire.

Even accounting for warmer bias of perhaps 2c microclimate of garden it is much warmer than forecast and feels as hot as hottest point yesterday. Thermo is shaded by a material gazebo but its not underneath it.

Storm game changer?

maybe but cold front is incoming from the west , was just west of Bristol a little while ago so someone said , can't think who it was now 

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Cumulus to my east is really starting to grow now.

Picture doesn't do its justice

DSC00850.JPG

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One of the best T/TD spreads I have ever seen here just now

79/70 and oppresive

Only problem is most if not all Models now backed away from any Imports overnight.

 

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41 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

I can see lightning over Brecon which is a good 40 miles or so from here, but only from the nearest hill.

I remember seeing lightning from a thunderstorm near Hull a few years ago. That’s about 60 miles.

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