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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

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Torro Update keeps the SE in the game maybe 

 

Morning folks - it was a lively night in some parts of the UK last night - of course, many areas didn't get any storms at all, which is generally the way it all works!

Today, the best chance for vigorous thunderstorm development appears to the this afternoon and evening from approx Manchester to Cambridge and then moving northwards, as a subtle upper trough moves in over the warm, moist low-level airmass.

Ahead of this, some activity may re-develop on the tail end of some showery rain across N England through late morning, then into S Scotland.

Between these 2 zones, an area of mid-level descent will likely suppress much development and allow some decent surface heating before the 2nd trough moves in.

A few severe storms may develop this afternoon/evening from the Mids, western E Anglia northwards into Lincs and parts of N England, perhaps with large hail/strong winds.

A more isolated severe storm threat may manifest itself as far SE as the London area this afternoon as the trough moves through.

A few storms may form today over N Ireland too.

Paul.

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3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’m in Stevenage, it’s clear blue sky...it was a false return I’m afraid ?

I've seen a few of those just wait a few minutes after the strike before thinking of reporting a single blip.

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Lunch time in London will be something to watch for, little hazy now in the west and looking at the Met Office map shows showers around 1-2pm.

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A few small cumulus floating about in all directions now, I suppose it's a start considering we've now had hours of nothing but wispy cirrus lol..liking that Torro update

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what time are we expecting the first developments to possibly appear on radar?

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28.5.c and rising fast, can see something bubbling in the distance to the SW of here.

IMG_2202.JPG

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Fingers crossed some of us get the jackpot ?

Currently feeling very warm, still and humid In Harrogate (N.Yorks) Mammatus clouds above ? 

Car and camera ready....I’m a complete noob so hopefully I’ll get lucky ?

Good luck to all.

 

Benjamin 

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Sun is now out here, temp rocketed to 27c, all eyes to the radar

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Does any one know.. how far is lightning actually visible at night?  I am in Basingstoke, a good 25m inland and 2am today saw distant lightning to the s/se, even heard the faintest of thunder.  However lightning was nowhere near on the sferic maps..the closest was about 10m of the w Sussex coast at this point.  Just wondering if anyone can clarify?  Thanks 

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Wasn't that band of cloud supposed to be a cold front as it certainly hasn't cooled down. Sunshine about to return to N Lincs now. Waiting to see what happens later on as BBC forecast mentioned storms but showed little if anything for anyone, even in the high risk areas

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I can see lightning from France if there storm tops are high enough from here in Essex.

When I was out on Foulness Island once shooting the Milky Way we were picking up faint lightning in cloud tops in our pictures looking east and tracked the storm to West Germany so defo from your vantage point to off the coast would be doable

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It's dark and overcast here in Leeds with a passing shower.

 

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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

I can see lightning from France if there storm tops are high enough from here in Essex.

When I was out on Foulness Island once shooting the Milky Way we were picking up faint lightning in cloud tops in our pictures looking east and tracked the storm to West Germany so defo from your vantage point to off the coast would be doable

Oh so you have my vision I see?! ?

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Just hit 29.0c, dewpoints levelled off to 14.0c for now..I feel compelled to say it always impresses me how fast things develop, 20mins ago it was virtually cloudless, 10mins ago there were a few flecky teeny tiny cumulus and now there's lots of them, pretty meaty and starting to block out the sun

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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

I can see lightning from France if there storm tops are high enough from here in Essex.

When I was out on Foulness Island once shooting the Milky Way we were picking up faint lightning in cloud tops in our pictures looking east and tracked the storm to West Germany so defo from your vantage point to off the coast would be doable

Any chance for the south east again? and yeah the height of them clouds blows my mind

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34 minutes ago, Chris Thomas said:

Thinking of hitting up Ely/West Norfolk area. Always a great place to chase if a storm lands. 

I'm liking the comments here today ? we seemed to do well with the last set of convergence storms, I won't believe my luck if the same happens today! My home seems to be right in the forecast charts firing line for this afternoons 'pop up' storms but I really do think it'll be hit and miss. Think I'll be out in the car later doing some fen storm chasing!! Fingers crossed I can make use of the pano roof 

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2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I can see lightning from France if there storm tops are high enough from here in Essex.

When I was out on Foulness Island once shooting the Milky Way we were picking up faint lightning in cloud tops in our pictures looking east and tracked the storm to West Germany so defo from your vantage point to off the coast would be doable

Looks like the death of the cone has really brought some wonders to Essex! I wonder if @Zak M can see those as well! ? ?

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28 degrees here in leicester!and some beautiful thunder towers to the north and west??⚡

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I personally think there is a chance overnight, all this heat which is 3c over what they expected could spark off something closer to our shores or storms in France could graze us.

Arome 06z does not think so.

The other thing is the Cold Front is racing in from the west already just west of Bristol, if this can keep away more of a chance to hold the plume longer.

You never know if its quicker it might ignite some cells as well

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27c with 15c dewpoints i think, some cumulus starting to pop up now as well

 

cant say im hopefully as i seem to be out of most forecasters risk zones but i can hope lol.

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2 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Looks like the death of the cone has really brought some wonders to Essex! I wonder if @Zak M can see those as well! ? ?

Well they ruined mine and Peter Scotts pictures really as had a nice view to the east and kept getting a white band where the cloud tops were lighting up ?

When I looked at the radar when I got home was expecting a storm in Benelux but nope nearest was Germany, this was a good 6 years ago mind, will have to dig out the pics one day

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Can see towering cumulus now to my North West. Quick look on visible cloud satellite shows some over west Norfolk just gone up in the last 10 mins. Expect the radar to show something there in the next 30 mins.

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6 minutes ago, bradleywx said:

Just hit 29.0c, dewpoints levelled off to 14.0c for now..I feel compelled to say it always impresses me how fast things develop, 20mins ago it was virtually cloudless, 10mins ago there were a few flecky teeny tiny cumulus and now there's lots of them, pretty meaty and starting to block out the sun

ok so not even 10 minutes later and there's now a tower to my north, and dewpoint gone up by almost a degree to 14.8c..

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