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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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26 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Our climate has shifted somewhat in the last 10-20 years and if you want to see Supercells in this country you have to go to the North West, Midlands And North East England. The days of the best storms in the South and South East are long past us now with a much drier arid climate down here where you can go 2-3 weeks without any rainfall at all and capping seems to be a much bigger problem these days

I agree I said this a couple of years back. I've seen a couple of supercell storms now in the last few years up here and almost every year see some form of storm. The north has shifted somewhat as it defo used to be southern England that got the cream with storms. Interesting things happening climate-wise. 

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This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramp

My view of the Bude cell   Edit:excuse the washing

Very impressive lightning display here in Scotland in the early hours. I am just a amateur photographer but I am pleased with what I managed to capture. Here is a selection of all the best ones I got.

Posted Images

34 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Our climate has shifted somewhat in the last 10-20 years and if you want to see Supercells in this country you have to go to the North West, Midlands And North East England. The days of the best storms in the South and South East are long past us now with a much drier arid climate down here where you can go 2-3 weeks without any rainfall at all and capping seems to be a much bigger problem these days

I’ve seen some amazing storms in the SE over recent years. Almost every year. Sure a couple of them were supercells. This year feels like a proper mismatch, other end of the country getting the action now. Something about 2020. Everything about this year is just wrong ?

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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31 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

wow 5 CM hail. I can’t even think what that would be like to experience. The most I’ve ever seen is about 8–12 mm.

I can’t remember the last time I had hail in a thunderstorm, I always seem to get lots of spring showers with pea sized hail but never from a thunderstorm.

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The stuff over Shropshire has ignited. Shame it's sliding to my west.

Shrewsbury gets it again though. 

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3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2020

stormmap_260620.thumb.png.293002639b304a6711f4c94f637cb846.png

Issued 2020-06-26 07:19:00
Valid: 26/06/2020 0600 - 27/06/2020 0600

Forecast Details

Upper trough axis to the  W and SW of Britain Friday morning will become increasingly negatively-tilted (NW-SE aligned) and sharpen as it shifts E into western Britain by late evening. Ahead of the trough, a warm/moist plume characterised by high wet bulb potential temperatures (theta-w) of 16-18C will continue to advect north across much of Britain, the plume eventually pushed away eastwards by the approaching upper trough by early Saturday.

The high theta-w plume has destablised overnight in places with elevated thunderstorms breaking out and still ongoing this morning, particularly across Ireland and far west of mainland UK – due to strips of positive vorticity /drier air overrunning western side of plume, while a shortwave trough has brought an area of t-storms across the far SE which will clear by breakfast time.

A very warm and moist surface airmass will reside across much of Britain, with dew points reaching 16-20C. Surface heating of this humid airmass into the high 20s or low 30s (SE England) by this afternoon capped beneath an EML (elevated mixed layer) will produce a ‘loaded gun’ pool of strong potential instability with CAPE values forecast to reach 1000-1900 j/kg this afternoon across inland Britain. Long strip/trough of positive vorticity /dry air aloft (noted on WV imagery) will continue to move E/NE across mainland UK, lift and overrunning of dry air in the mid-levels from this feature along with surface breeze convergence will likely destabilise and release the large reservoir of CAPE and support the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of the Midlands, NE Wales, northern England and into southern Scotland. Further south airmass likely to remain on the whole capped by the EML, but isolated t-storms can’t be ruled out.

Given the large CAPE values forecast across much of Britain, particularly across central, northern and eastern England, isolated large hail (3-5cm diameter) is possible with stronger storms, along with frequent C-G lightning and torrential downpours with rainfall rates of 30-50mm per hour leading to localised flooding. Therefore, have issued a severe storm area covering NE Wales, Midlands and N England.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms are likely to develop, mostly elevated, across the north of Ireland/N. Ireland, southern and western Scotland, hail (isolated 2-3cm), frequent C-G lightning and torrential rain leading to flash-flooding. Isolated elevated thunderstorms breaking out across N France/English Channel/Channel Islands, as another trough/strip of positive vorticity swings in from the SW, could clip SE England this evening.

This evening/tonight – surface low moving in across S Ireland under base of upper trough moving in the SW/W will pull an occluded frontal zone across SW Britain, bringing showers, which could be locally heavy enough to produce isolated lightning.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

 

Cameras are charged........

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I’m gonna be off this thread for a while now ? unless something pops up today I’m  full of disappointment and I need to put my mind on something else. What a pathetic ending to a heatwave here in the SE. I’ll be back on here when another ‘plume’ event or storms are on the way ? 

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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37 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

wow 5 CM hail. I can’t even think what that would be like to experience. The most I’ve ever seen is about 8–12 mm.

Seen marble sized hail, that was back in December 1993.  The hail from the supercell, a week last Tuesay was between pea and marble sized. 

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A 5/10 'weak' thunderstorm here to the East of Brighton last night.

The heaviest rainfall just to our East.

Nothing overhead here,we did however,witness some lovely cg strikes and cc efforts.

The rumbling in the channel during the still night air was rather nice!

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1 minute ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Oh how I wish I was in that moderate...

Ditto. The south and east (proper east, that is) seem to have turned into Storm Desert on Sea....

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15 minutes ago, Nick F said:

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2020

stormmap_260620.thumb.png.293002639b304a6711f4c94f637cb846.png

Issued 2020-06-26 07:19:00
Valid: 26/06/2020 0600 - 27/06/2020 0600

Forecast Details

Upper trough axis to the  W and SW of Britain Friday morning will become increasingly negatively-tilted (NW-SE aligned) and sharpen as it shifts E into western Britain by late evening. Ahead of the trough, a warm/moist plume characterised by high wet bulb potential temperatures (theta-w) of 16-18C will continue to advect north across much of Britain, the plume eventually pushed away eastwards by the approaching upper trough by early Saturday.

The high theta-w plume has destablised overnight in places with elevated thunderstorms breaking out and still ongoing this morning, particularly across Ireland and far west of mainland UK – due to strips of positive vorticity /drier air overrunning western side of plume, while a shortwave trough has brought an area of t-storms across the far SE which will clear by breakfast time.

A very warm and moist surface airmass will reside across much of Britain, with dew points reaching 16-20C. Surface heating of this humid airmass into the high 20s or low 30s (SE England) by this afternoon capped beneath an EML (elevated mixed layer) will produce a ‘loaded gun’ pool of strong potential instability with CAPE values forecast to reach 1000-1900 j/kg this afternoon across inland Britain. Long strip/trough of positive vorticity /dry air aloft (noted on WV imagery) will continue to move E/NE across mainland UK, lift and overrunning of dry air in the mid-levels from this feature along with surface breeze convergence will likely destabilise and release the large reservoir of CAPE and support the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of the Midlands, NE Wales, northern England and into southern Scotland. Further south airmass likely to remain on the whole capped by the EML, but isolated t-storms can’t be ruled out.

Given the large CAPE values forecast across much of Britain, particularly across central, northern and eastern England, isolated large hail (3-5cm diameter) is possible with stronger storms, along with frequent C-G lightning and torrential downpours with rainfall rates of 30-50mm per hour leading to localised flooding. Therefore, have issued a severe storm area covering NE Wales, Midlands and N England.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms are likely to develop, mostly elevated, across the north of Ireland/N. Ireland, southern and western Scotland, hail (isolated 2-3cm), frequent C-G lightning and torrential rain leading to flash-flooding. Isolated elevated thunderstorms breaking out across N France/English Channel/Channel Islands, as another trough/strip of positive vorticity swings in from the SW, could clip SE England this evening.

This evening/tonight – surface low moving in across S Ireland under base of upper trough moving in the SW/W will pull an occluded frontal zone across SW Britain, bringing showers, which could be locally heavy enough to produce isolated lightning.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

 

I sit right within that big yellow circle... looking forward to it!

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14 minutes ago, Gord said:

The stuff over Shropshire has ignited. Shame it's sliding to my west.

Shrewsbury gets it again though. 

this setup never gives anything here, best setup is slack lows, no plumes 13th to 17th June this year

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Looking like a good day for storms up in the north! Might take a trip up to Leeds later today once ive finished sorting out these servers with work!

Took a walk just before 8 to the shop and the humidity out there is unreal, and theres a lot of instability, certainly feels conducive for storms.

Edited by Calayte
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6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Really want to go out chasing today, but it's going to take at least a 3.5 hour drive ugh...

I have the same dilemma ?

Gonna try and get my work out the way early this morning, and then decide.

I don’t know why we are being dealt such a s—-ty hand this year. Don’t know what the flip happened last night, but really running out of patience again with these pointless busts each time for our area. Tired of the hard work it seems to require to just have a shot at enjoying a storm. Also tired of the expense each time.

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24 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Very impressive lightning display here in Scotland in the early hours. I am just a amateur photographer but I am pleased with what I managed to capture. Here is a selection of all the best ones I got. It’s great to see Scotland get some amazing storms recently. 

4E5FE31B-0B18-4141-AD70-837776C63F1F.thumb.jpeg.d0bd088bc63e1a2e1d7a79e8d0ea4ccc.jpeg

3AAF2220-D41C-496D-9951-A05E252522F1.thumb.jpeg.1411a4cb00ff040269a83ed6d704019d.jpeg

D592F9B7-F0C2-4677-B23F-0F44F5422606.thumb.jpeg.d9078de64a27b58398dc0fe4fb21c583.jpeg

F6DF640E-51D8-4951-A57A-1542ECA0400B.thumb.jpeg.2585f9aefb78aaabe607a596f8473d7a.jpeg

C7C08164-2967-4837-A12D-F705F7CFB0B6.thumb.jpeg.de5688578d5f6fa24e3d813e1cac6a08.jpeg

A2B001AC-A82F-422B-A161-6ED6B226C26A.thumb.jpeg.ffd3fd96a421c0884dcce4cd46d12a14.jpeg

4A9389FC-6B82-4253-935C-58ECE6EA051A.thumb.jpeg.0981a4d7e493dc019a54c1d55a2cc9dd.jpeg

Incredible! ? 

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5 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

  What is going on with this sounding? It looks like it may have been struck by lightning

image.png

I don't understand how though as it was in a region that didn't get hit by storms, at least that I know of

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5 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

  What is going on with this sounding? It looks like it may have been struck by lightning

image.png

Popped. ?

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