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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

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I saw the username Staplehurst and the word "encouraging" in the same small space.  Consider me encouraged

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Glorious blue skies here now, quite a contrast from this morning. Convergence seems quite far to the NW from here so the storms should hold off. 

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Posted (edited)

Just ridiculous amounts of rain here gardens flooded and reports lower down from here shops damaged from flood water

Screenshot_20200618-145811_Facebook.thumb.jpg.321409036d138abd34e77dc1141554cf.jpg

Edited by Marcus_surfer
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Posted (edited)

Think @staplehurst is on to something here - skies here starting to look very promising indeed! First pic looking SW while the second pic is looking ESE

9531EEAE-DE47-4E33-975C-03510826CA57.jpeg

19C649D0-7A3B-42D3-A996-0DF3445AB923.jpeg

Edited by Harry
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Taken by a BBC Weather Watcher near me yesterday

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3 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Just ridiculous amounts of rain here gardens flooded and reports lower down from here shops damaged from flood water

Hasn't moved much from this morning.

rain18.png

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So what do we reckon southeast folk? Suns out now and feeling humid again. We’ve got the whole afternoon and evening to go. 

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The rain here isn't budging. That big splodge is moving east and west at the same time. Most bizarre

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6 minutes ago, John90 said:

So what do we reckon southeast folk? Suns out now and feeling humid again. We’ve got the whole afternoon and evening to go. 

Haven’t seen the skies for the past half hour but based on I saw/shared from 30 mins ago I’d say it looks promising ?

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6 minutes ago, John90 said:

So what do we reckon southeast folk? Suns out now and feeling humid again. We’ve got the whole afternoon and evening to go. 

I'm not convinced. I think we would have seen some decent shower activity by now at least. The sun has been out quite some time here.

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Just finished editing Tuesdays storm!

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4 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Really good radar if you run the loop atm - Places the Low somewhere over North London. Everything in the Northern Home counties moving east to west yet a few miles south of the low west to east. 

Still got it 4 hours later! Result...a lot of rain. ?

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On my way down to Southampton now. Hopefully I catch something, as everything is looking good. Camera fully charged and ready to go. 

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Lots of drizzle here today with some heavier bursts, still a humid feel though.

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19C now, so based on the Herstmonceux sounding @staplehurst shared earlier we may have liftoff somewhere soon ?

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1 hour ago, staplehurst said:

12z Herstmonceux radiosonde data is actually quite encouraging, and suggests deep convection is possible where sunshine can break through and lift temperatures to 17-18C or higher, with dewpoints around 13-14C, as is present across Kent/Sussex into east Essex and east Suffolk. Slight nose at ~680mb capping showers initially, but assuming convergence can develop in places then this should in theory be overcome. 09z sounding from Cardington in Bedfordshire does exhibit substantial mid-level capping from a deep warm, moist layer, but this should be peeling away to the west through the afternoon.

All in all, if we can get some meaningful convergence going then there is a risk of a few heavy showers or thunderstorms across SE England through London and up into East Anglia this afternoon and early evening. At the moment surface obs don't suggest a great amount of convergence where the sunshine is breaking through, perhaps some minor confluence, so will have to monitor obs through the afternoon. Best convergence right now is through the surface low axis, from Cambridgeshire southwestwards through the south Midlands to Somerset (where extensive cloud persists). A case of the right ingredients, but not all in the right place!

HERST.JPG

The problem we have is there isn't any substantial convergence (red-dashed lines) occurring within the areas that have the best surface heating (yellow shading). In fact, there is quite a brisk southwesterly wind across East Anglia and SE England, which will work against any sea breeze that tries to develop. A few showers have developed and fizzled over the past few hours, and without any substantial forcing they will struggle to get past the small ~680mb nose. The winds may ease a little bit later this afternoon, but models aren't really suggesting much in the way of pronounced convergence developing sadly...

Picture1.png

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Not very often you see a low moving in this direction from east to west:crazy:.

lastsnowradar_uk_boy8.thumb.gif.b8d8fd37e7e1c16b16fd9c9a7f907471.gif

image?type=visual&region=gb
EN.SAT24.COM

Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Satellite Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in United Kingdom and Ireland - SAT24.com

good look all this afternoon/evening down in the SE,next week is looking hot and hopefully some more...

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i have booked next week off too so i will be chasing most of the time,that's if a breakdown occurs that is and is a long way off yet.

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Just looking at next week, currently the GFS 06Z has no real thundery breakdown, just a few popcorn showers in afternoon. Could really do with a cutoff low, not just a meandering set of fronts bringing cooler air from the north west later in the week. Still lots of time for that change. 

 

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Rain has eventually stopped now but does not look or feel remotely stormy sadly .

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1 hour ago, staplehurst said:

12z Herstmonceux radiosonde data is actually quite encouraging, and suggests deep convection is possible where sunshine can break through and lift temperatures to 17-18C or higher, with dewpoints around 13-14C, as is present across Kent/Sussex into east Essex and east Suffolk. Slight nose at ~680mb capping showers initially, but assuming convergence can develop in places then this should in theory be overcome. 09z sounding from Cardington in Bedfordshire does exhibit substantial mid-level capping from a deep warm, moist layer, but this should be peeling away to the west through the afternoon.

All in all, if we can get some meaningful convergence going then there is a risk of a few heavy showers or thunderstorms across SE England through London and up into East Anglia this afternoon and early evening. At the moment surface obs don't suggest a great amount of convergence where the sunshine is breaking through, perhaps some minor confluence, so will have to monitor obs through the afternoon. Best convergence right now is through the surface low axis, from Cambridgeshire southwestwards through the south Midlands to Somerset (where extensive cloud persists). A case of the right ingredients, but not all in the right place!

HERST.JPG

Well it's a 18 here now, and dp 14 just do not have anything to help fire, and out of the risk zone anyway. I was hoping those cells moving north east slowly this morning would do something, as that's when the convergence was here, but alas just some weak convective drops from ac cas which faded a long time ago now. 

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4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Just looking at next week, currently the GFS 06Z has no real thundery breakdown, just a few popcorn showers in afternoon. Could really do with a cutoff low, not just a meandering set of fronts bringing cooler air from the north west later in the week. Still lots of time for that change. 

 

ECM showing a cutoff low possible ? 

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2 minutes ago, Allezwasps. said:

Rain has eventually stopped now but does not look or feel remotely stormy sadly .

Am hoping it doesn't change its mind and move east again! Nigh on 50mm of rain in last 17 hours. Don't suppose we're going to get 3 hours of intense sunshine now ?

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