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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

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CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

 

Not sure if this has been posted but decent risk level here for a lot of people! 

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The other one I saw. 

temp.gif

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watching a sandown bay webcam live stream to see whats coming up from france

 

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Keeping my eye on these that have started to develop for later in the night. Met office had it crossing right over the W country in the early hours, but not sure if it'll just be standard showery rain behind the band moving in front.

 

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1 minute ago, matt111 said:

The other one I saw. 

temp.gif

That must have been the same strike that was caught behind Graeme Souness on TV.

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From Convective Weather

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 26 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 27 Jun 2020

ISSUED 22:04 UTC Thu 25 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Longwave trough will become increasingly negatively-tilted as it continues to approach Britain and Ireland on Friday from the southwest. A plume of high Theta-E will continue to nudge gradually northwards and eastwards across Britain through the day, providing the focus for several waves of potential thunderstorm activity as shortwaves lift northwards in the south/southeasterly flow aloft on the forward side of the upper trough.

At 06z Friday, scattered clusters of elevated showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing almost anywhere in a NW-SE line from the Hebrides / W Scotland through the Irish Sea into Wales / south Midlands / SE England - however, there will likely be many areas not experiencing thunderstorms at this time. This line (active or inactive) will continue to lift northeastwards through the day, and so the areas at risk of semi-random outbreaks of elevated shower/thunderstorm activity will also shift northeast accordingly, broadly clearing to the North Sea by early afternoon, but pivoting such that the instability plume lingers across central and southern Scotland. A blend of model guidance would suggest there may be an uptick in activity across East Anglia and SE England on Friday morning.

 

In its wake, substantial capping will likely persist across much of southern Britain, generally restricting any surface-based convection from developing - not least due to slightly reduced surface temperatures following morning mid-level cloud. Forecast profiles suggest temperatures of at least 34C would be required to break the cap in SE England, which seems unlikely. Further north, surface troughing is expected to develop, perhaps even a heat low, with low-level confluence and convergence combining with some orographic forcing to bring a greater risk of surface-based thunderstorms developing. A wind shift line may also lift northeast across England and Wales during the day, which may also provide the focus for initiation.

 

The area at greatest risk of surface-based development is considered far NE Wales through north Midlands and northern England. Here, the thermodynamic and kinematic environment would be supportive for organised and potentially severe thunderstorm activity, and while winds will be fairly unidirectional through the cloud-bearing layer, shear may be adequate for splitting supercells - especially during the evening hours over NW / N England. Given the magnitude of CAPE (1,000-2,000 J/kg) and very steep mid-level lapse rates, lightning could be very frequent with large to very large hail (3-5cm in diameter) possible from the most organised cells. If confidence improves on more widespread coverage of thunderstorms, a MDT may be introduced. The SVR could also be extended into northern parts of East Anglia, but concerns exist about the strength of the cap here and also weaker shear. Overall the best environment - weaker cap and stronger shear overlapping with substantial CAPE - will be over northern England. Thunderstorms over northern England on Friday evening will swing into eastern Scotland during the early hours of Saturday.

 

Additional scattered thunderstorms are also likely across parts of Scotland (where hail up to 2cm in diameter is possible), and northern portions of Ireland. There is also a risk of thunderstorms grazing close to Kent/Sussex and along the east coast of East Anglia on Friday night as they run northeastwards across the southern North Sea - but confidence on how far west inland they may push is quite low.

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CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

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5 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

23rd July 2019 was a bit more active

IMG-1531.thumb.jpg.570d1e078638fb23277a6a75527d3402.jpgIMG-1530.thumb.jpg.b0ca29cc293ae18d3d0229eb7871c89b.jpgIMG-1529.thumb.jpg.3bf240e0fb4977869b3ee9a1d1131887.jpg

July 23rd last year was memorable. I made the one hour trip down from work to the New Forest and watched the storm from a car park in the heathland, somewhere near Lyndhurst or Brockenhurst, I forget. The lighting was phenomenal, all directions, every second. It was breath-taking.

Anyway, I haven't posted on here in about a year, hope everyone is keeping well, what with the current crisis and the idiots at the beach! Moved from south Bucks to near Petersfield start of the year, so the coast is even closer! Not sure whether East Hants does better than the Chilterns for summer storms, but it can't do much worse! Fingers crossed for tonight. 

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1 minute ago, P-M said:
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CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

 

Not sure if this has been posted but decent risk level here for a lot of people! 

Oooooooooooooh!!!

that could get upgraded to MDT by the morning but i am not complaining at that.

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There’s still a few sparks that I can see.

Thunder can definitely be heard - but it’s very distant. Seems a a lot cooler then an hour ago. 

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i think the thundery rain will be under alot of destablisation as there is a CAP in place over us atm, rerunning the rainradar it looks like cells should start firing up either ahead of it or behind it.

 

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Just now, Christchurch storm nut said:

I had to crop in quite a bit on these shots but they have turned out too bad.

I'm gonna sit tight for a while, 

In the past,I've seen things happen what things where looking quite bleak ??

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20200625211430_IMG_6721-01.jpeg

That second one it the one I posed above. Didn't realise it had such a big curve shape to it until I watched it back 

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12 minutes ago, Lu. said:

There’s still a few sparks that I can see.

Thunder can definitely be heard - but it’s very distant. Seems a a lot cooler then an hour ago. 

I've come home now think I will wait for it or whatever it will be when it gets here lol

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Bunch of kids just lit a fire on the beach at Bournemouth, that won't last 5 minutes ?

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Can see flashes from that mess from here so it's definitely high level. Can also see brighter flashes from the south, must be that other stuff over France. 

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Sadly it didn't come to fruition. There's still a chance for some cells to develop SW of the current mess which the UKV hinted at for days. Other than that, not looking too promising here.

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1 minute ago, Christchurch storm nut said:

I had to crop in quite a bit on these shots but they have turned out too bad.

I'm gonna sit tight for a while, 

In the past,I've seen things happen what things where looking quite bleak ??

20200625212036_IMG_6740-01.jpeg

20200625211430_IMG_6721-01.jpeg

Be-au-ti-ful:clap:

nice captures mate.

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22 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Tell you what, this is kind of reminiscent of last year, 23/24th of July isn’t it? Or am I being stupid

What happened? Moderate rain with the odd rumble that resulted in slate grey skies killing any chance the next day? Because that is what is happening now

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3 minutes ago, matt111 said:

That second one it the one I posed above. Didn't realise it had such a big curve shape to it until I watched it back 

Are you still expecting anything else? I'm not too sure too be honest, but I'm going to wait another 30 minutes before I call it.

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Posted (edited)

The Isle of Man is getting a nice train of storms there.

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Edited by Allseasons-si
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1 minute ago, Cableguy said:

What happened? Moderate rain with the odd rumble that resulted in slate grey skies killing any chance the next day? Because that is what is happening now

Yep I was being stupid. It’s just in a similar position ?

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Sat just east of Winchester. Starting to give up hope. Few flashes coming from the SE but it feels like a wasted drive. Guess I'll give it a while to see if the cells behind the rainy mess do anything

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The wind has seriously just picked up. Blowing an absolute gale down the seafront ??

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