Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

[Jamie M]

2 waterspouts near Southampton earlier.

[matt111]

Another picture of the one in Southampton Water 

 

[Guest]

Flash flooding in parts of Poole and Bournemouth. Some more thunder to my west. 

[matt111]

Just now, Alderc said:

Flash flooding in parts of Poole and Bournemouth. Some more thunder to my west. 

And yet here just down the road it’s bone dry still 

[Zak M]

And... another one from Tuesday

[beatpete]

Popped up on my FB just now... Birmingham yesterday..

 

 

Edited June 18, 2020 by beatpete

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, matt111 said:

And yet here just down the road it’s bone dry still 

The models were about 20miles out, 6hrs ago we were only meant to get 2-5mm, looks like some places have had 20-40mm in an hour or so. Will be interesting to see how much Hurn picks up as the highest precip totals have been over north Poole. 

[Thunderstruck]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Torro have released a Convective Chat which takes the SE out of the game completely.

Cone lives on - Am very confident we can now get to 12 months without a cg 

Yikes, let’s hope not

26th July was the last time, right?

[mrchoosy]

If you watch the radar loop zoomed in to BA20, very interesting to see the rain movements

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

3 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Really good radar if you run the loop atm - Places the Low somewhere over North London. Everything in the Northern Home counties moving east to west yet a few miles south of the low west to east. 

 

[Ryukai]

28 minutes ago, beatpete said:

Popped up on my FB just now... Birmingham yesterday..

 

 

This happened on the 13th (5 days ago) if whoever posted this is claiming to have taken the footage themselves yesterday! then they have most likely stolen the footage from someone else.

Edited June 18, 2020 by Ryukai

[ancientsolar]

Tornadoes , Funnels,, Shear funnels.. Waterspouts..and the .. Cone of Silence .. 

What a week it has been !!
 

[Marcus_surfer]

Unbelievable rainfall rates here im amazed theres no thunder

[WxHerts]

Skies clearing, up go the towers?

[Ryukai]

Hours upon hours of grey sky drizzle here (and hours more to come by looks of things) 

[10 Days Away]

Eastern Europe lighting up like a Christmas Tree 

Real Time Lightning Map :: LightningMaps.org

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[Calayte]

Thought you all might appreciate this. I forgot I had this picture it was taken in Northamptonshire on 27th of June 2014 - Best lightning pic i have taken to date.

Edited June 18, 2020 by Calayte

[Paul Sherman]

44 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Yikes, let’s hope not

26th July was the last time, right?

Yep according to my wife 26th July was an overhead storm - I was in Alberta chasing with Netweather so missed that as well. 

I have to go back to 2018 for my last site at a Cg over the Cone

[staplehurst]

12z Herstmonceux radiosonde data is actually quite encouraging, and suggests deep convection is possible where sunshine can break through and lift temperatures to 17-18C or higher, with dewpoints around 13-14C, as is present across Kent/Sussex into east Essex and east Suffolk. Slight nose at ~680mb capping showers initially, but assuming convergence can develop in places then this should in theory be overcome. 09z sounding from Cardington in Bedfordshire does exhibit substantial mid-level capping from a deep warm, moist layer, but this should be peeling away to the west through the afternoon.

All in all, if we can get some meaningful convergence going then there is a risk of a few heavy showers or thunderstorms across SE England through London and up into East Anglia this afternoon and early evening. At the moment surface obs don't suggest a great amount of convergence where the sunshine is breaking through, perhaps some minor confluence, so will have to monitor obs through the afternoon. Best convergence right now is through the surface low axis, from Cambridgeshire southwestwards through the south Midlands to Somerset (where extensive cloud persists). A case of the right ingredients, but not all in the right place!

Edited June 18, 2020 by staplehurst

[Harry]

1 minute ago, staplehurst said:

12z Herstmonceux radiosonde data is actually quite encouraging, and suggests deep convection is possible where sunshine can break through and lift temperatures to 17-18C or higher, with dewpoints around 13-14C, as is present across Kent/Sussex into east Essex and east Suffolk. Slight nose at ~680mb capping showers initially, but assuming convergence can develop in places then this should in theory be overcome. 09z sounding from Cardington in Bedfordshire does exhibit substantial mid-level capping from a deep warm, moist layer, but this should be peeling away to the west through the afternoon.

All in all, if we can get some meaningful convergence going then there is a risk of a few heavy showers or thunderstorms across SE England through London and up into East Anglia this afternoon and early evening. At the moment surface obs don't suggest a great amount of convergence where the sunshine is breaking through, perhaps some minor confluence, so will have to monitor obs through the afternoon. Best convgernece right now is through the surface low axis, from Cambridgeshire southwestwards through the south Midlands to Somerset (where extensive cloud persists).

Hope you’re right @staplehurst  Sun is certainly making an appearance here on and off and in any sun it does feel warm. Temps here currently 18C

[Freeze]

So a bit of light drizzle in the early hours is all I’m allowed on this spell? 

[Frosty hollows]

4 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

12z Herstmonceux radiosonde data is actually quite encouraging, and suggests deep convection is possible where sunshine can break through and lift temperatures to 17-18C or higher, with dewpoints around 13-14C, as is present across Kent/Sussex into east Essex and east Suffolk. Slight nose at ~680mb capping showers initially, but assuming convergence can develop in places then this should in theory be overcome. 09z sounding from Cardington in Bedfordshire does exhibit substantial mid-level capping from a deep warm, moist layer, but this should be peeling away to the west through the afternoon.

All in all, if we can get some meaningful convergence going then there is a risk of a few heavy showers or thunderstorms across SE England through London and up into East Anglia this afternoon and early evening. At the moment surface obs don't suggest a great amount of convergence where the sunshine is breaking through, perhaps some minor confluence, so will have to monitor obs through the afternoon. Best convergence right now is through the surface low axis, from Cambridgeshire southwestwards through the south Midlands to Somerset (where extensive cloud persists). A case of the right ingredients, but not all in the right place!

Tell me about it

[matt111]

It’s been cloudy all day so far with no brightness to speak of and yet the sky looks like this to the north 

[Paul Sherman]

Shoeburyness will have the top temp of the day today, it briefly touched 21c but fell back to 20c now.

[Frosty hollows]

Heady heights of 16c here. And no end of rain