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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Any heatwave events from the past we can remember that have ended pathetically? 

The heatwaves here last year ended without any fireworks. Even the epic heatwave didn't spawn a local storm ?

Edited by Stelmer
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Posted (edited)

?

cell.thumb.png.0648ab8406e8ccc5bbcc7182c8984193.png

Look at that reflectivity, doesn't surprise me at all now why they have a high lightning rate...

 

Edited by Zak M
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Mixed news from WRF-NMM 12z. Good news is CAPE arrives earlier and is pretty much as robust. Bad news is it gives absolutely not one drop of rain across most C/S/E England at this time ?

5B0BBED4-2FAE-4AFC-9F59-75C872A31FA7.png

70A78833-D435-42A6-B9DB-EAB212BDFCF4.png

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3 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Any heatwave events from the past we can remember that have ended pathetically? 

June 2011 The infamous El-Gordo. August 2012 was also rubbish here, a few bubbling cumulus posing as a cold front! Pathetic ending to 28-30c. I remember having a little rant on here infact! 

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2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

This will be hideout tonight! Just a matter of letting nature take its course and watching the radar from here on in.

20200625_152702.thumb.jpg.d830b842e11de61833435ad1ca7b312b.jpg

Hope the cider is nice and chilled and you have a great lightning show for your birthday.

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2 minutes ago, Harry said:

Mixed news from WRF-NMM 12z. Good news is CAPE arrives earlier and is pretty much as robust. Bad news is it gives absolutely not one drop of rain across most C/S/E England at this time ?

5B0BBED4-2FAE-4AFC-9F59-75C872A31FA7.png

70A78833-D435-42A6-B9DB-EAB212BDFCF4.png

the cape showing is whats causing the storms barnstaple bude way and in ceredigion then so that will clear northwards by 04:00 hopefully 

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oo that’s a bit closer, 70 km

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:shok:

Only a few times in my lifetime have I seen a storm with reflectivity that high...

wow.png

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Just now, Stelmer said:

I never saw that here.....

Maybe you slept through it. 

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7 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Some large hail there. Wouldn't want to get hit by one of those.

Ridiculous and typical that these places are getting such exciting weather and their temps were only about 15°C.

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7 minutes ago, Harry said:

Mixed news from WRF-NMM 12z. Good news is CAPE arrives earlier and is pretty much as robust. Bad news is it gives absolutely not one drop of rain across most C/S/E England at this time ?

5B0BBED4-2FAE-4AFC-9F59-75C872A31FA7.png

70A78833-D435-42A6-B9DB-EAB212BDFCF4.png

doesn't look like any model is showing a great for that time here is the gfs for 03z and 06z

 

ukprec.png

ukprec2.png

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Just now, Thundershine said:

Ridiculous and typical that these places are getting such exciting weather and their temps were only about 15°C.

Indeed. Scotland always seems to get good storms even though they don’t get the heat. 

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2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

:shok:

Only a few times in my lifetime have I seen a storm with reflectivity that high...

wow.png

High PWAT values amongst this lot! Flash flooding will more than likely be happening there now. 

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netweather model going for gold tomorrow ? hoping for a good chase around the wash 

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

nmmuk3hrprecip (1).png

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That storm sitting to the west of Paris is going absolutely berserk, shame it's not travelling north!

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What are the reasons behind a poor end to a heatwave? timing? 

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3 minutes ago, cheese said:

Indeed. Scotland always seems to get good storms even though they don’t get the heat. 

it is 30 where I am in Scotland, and Scotland on average gets lot less lightning than England. check the met office lightning statistics 

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Will the model output this evening is concerning. Seems like poor phasing maybe could be leading to the models swiftly pulling away from activity in the south. Only AROME shows any real interest and pops up some lively storms of the Dorset coast about 11pm however they don't seem to last very long.....

Meanwhile over the channel looks like we have the start of an MCS forming heading north of Paris and towards Belgium and some intense surface storms ambling along around the Brest & Cherbourg peninsular 

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Just now, AMeltedFlake said:

What are the reasons behind a poor end to a heatwave? timing? 

It hasn't ended yet!

But potentially not enough upper forcing - we'll just have to see how the next 36 hours plays out, there is plenty of potential, will there be enough trigger...

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4 minutes ago, convector said:

netweather model going for gold tomorrow ? hoping for a good chase around the wash 

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

nmmuk3hrprecip (1).png

well at that time the greatest cape / LI and temps should be there

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