Jump to content

Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


Recommended Posts

Currently under a bit of red on the radar within the area of rain and it’s really coming down. Rather disappointed at how extensive the front is though.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 3.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramp

My view of the Bude cell   Edit:excuse the washing

Very impressive lightning display here in Scotland in the early hours. I am just a amateur photographer but I am pleased with what I managed to capture. Here is a selection of all the best ones I got.

Posted Images

24 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Really good radar if you run the loop atm - Places the Low somewhere over North London. Everything in the Northern Home counties moving east to west yet a few miles south of the low west to east. 

Yes it’s really quite weird - low level clouds and wind clearly coming in from the S or SW whereas the satellite is indicating the upper level winds and cloud motion is from the E. 

Could make for some interesting developments if indeed the clearing that seems evident over southern and eastern most areas becomes more extensive - as it is, cloudy with steady rain at the moment.

Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Just for 'lols' as they say, remember this from Tuesday?

spacer.png

I said at the time, I'd be as shocked as Chris in that pic if his forecast came off like that. 

I remember thinking when that came out on Tuesday that they're focussing on the wrong day - Tuesday and Wednesday were the best potential, and more widely. Yes there was potential today, but primarily in a more restricted zone close to the low centre where convergence developed. 

Judging by the surface obs, the low centre is somewhere over my head! In the south Norfolk / north Suffolk area. Let's just hope skies can clear smartly through the afternoon, but I have low expectations today. Clear convergence in the wind obs along M4 corridor right now...

With regards to the Met Office warning, I suspect it's one of those situations where ordinarily they may not have issued a warning today on the day given how things look right now, but since it's been out for a couple of days and we might still see a handful of heavy showers this afternoon then they've just kept it for continuity sake. Heavy rain is still expected anyway, so I suspect they're using an element of this warning to cater for that too (such as over south Wales with embedded convective rainfall evident)

p1592473104.gif

Edited by staplehurst
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Harry said:

Yes it’s really quite weird - low level clouds and wind clearly coming in from the S or SW whereas the satellite is indicating the upper level winds and cloud motion is from the E. 

Could make for some interesting developments if indeed the clearing that seems evident over southern and eastern most areas becomes more extensive - as it is, cloudy with steady rain at the moment.

Can see the cloud just starting to clear in the far southeast around Dover now so I reckon another hour or two and we should hopefully see the sun come out

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Can see the cloud just starting to clear in the far southeast around Dover now so I reckon another hour or two and we should hopefully see the sun come out

That’s what I’m anticipating too @Oliver Wyndham-lewis - looks as if the clearing should arrive by around 12:30-13:00.

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

I remember thinking when that came out on Tuesday that they're focussing on the wrong day - Tuesday and Wednesday were the best potential, and more widely. Yes there was potential today, but primarily in a more restricted zone close to the low centre where convergence developed. 

Judging by the surface obs, the low centre is somewhere over my head! In the south Norfolk / north Suffolk area. Let's just hope skies can clear smartly through the afternoon, but I have low expectations today. Clear convergence in the wind obs along M4 corridor right now...

With regards to the Met Office warning, I suspect it's one of those situations where ordinarily they may not have issued a warning today on the day given how things look right now, but since it's been out for a couple of days and we might still see a handful of heavy showers this afternoon then they've just kept it for continuity sake. Heavy rain is still expected anyway, so I suspect they're using an element of this warning to cater for that too (such as over south Wales with embedded convective rainfall evident)

p1592473104.gif

 

I'm not too gutted, despite largely missing out on the storms this week. It's really good to see everything getting a good, consistent watering at last today, so long may the bursts of rain last! Plus, I'm working from home, so the less thundery activity, the more productive I am (he says, while once again posting here!).

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

does that mean we finally get thunderstorms!? yayyyy haha

Not by any means, but some surface heating from a strong sun won’t do any harm at all. Models are indicating CAPE build up but this is largely going to be dependant on getting some heating going realistically - see convectiveweather.co.uk forecast. As Dan says, it’s a lower risk today anyway but a risk is there nonetheless ?

Edit - Oracle now going for 29-31C next week - toasty!! 

Edited by Harry
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Lance M said:

 

I'm not too gutted, despite largely missing out on the storms this week. It's really good to see everything getting a good, consistent watering at last today, so long may the bursts of rain last! Plus, I'm working from home, so the less thundery activity, the more productive I am (he says, while once again posting here!).

haha yes same here! Thundery setups result in very little productivity here too!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lance M said:

Just for 'lols' as they say, remember this from Tuesday?

spacer.png

I said at the time, I'd be as shocked as Chris in that pic if his forecast came off like that. 

Just for the record cumulus is going west to east here, and the stuff from the channel north east, but for lower wind directions, I think that is actually right. Its just there is no storm energy. 

Edited by alexisj9
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Harry said:

Not by any means, but some surface heating from a strong sun won’t do any harm at all. Models are indicating CAPE build up but this is largely going to be dependant on getting some heating going realistically - see convectiveweather.co.uk forecast. As Dan says, it’s a lower risk today anyway but a risk is there nonetheless ?

id be happy with one rumble of thunder at this point ?

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Harry said:

Not by any means, but some surface heating from a strong sun won’t do any harm at all. Models are indicating CAPE build up but this is largely going to be dependant on getting some heating going realistically - see convectiveweather.co.uk forecast. As Dan says, it’s a lower risk today anyway but a risk is there nonetheless ?

If nothing materialises, all eyes on next week ?with some real heat possible. Hopefully that’ll end with a bang? 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

soooo am i tripping or is something not correct here 
image.thumb.png.7918b7e259e2338c14990f93b7a50d01.png

LOL I thought it was Wednesday this morning too. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

If nothing materialises, all eyes on next week ?with some real heat possible. Hopefully that’ll end with a bang? 

I'm off work next week, so it'd better do! Gagging for a late night storm chase, a batch of lightning captures on my DSLR and no work to delay me editing them the next day.

*switches dreaming mode back off*

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

MetO have updated the warning text associated with today’s storm risk (as of about an hour ago). Sorry if anyone has shared this already. 

82D62EC1-EF17-408C-BEFB-2B5FD28D6A88.png

Link to post
Share on other sites

It's absolutely bucketing down outside. I checked the radar and it looks like I have a few strong cells training over me, so that's exciting! Regarding this afternoon's T-Storm potential, I actually wouldn't mind getting nothing if it continues like this.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Cornishdave said:

I have to say I’m a little disappointed by the negativity on the page. There’s been some fantastic cloudscapes, storm clouds and structures we rarely see in this country

To be fair, there has been none of that here this past week, so a little negativity is justified.

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Just for the record cumulus is going west here, and the stuff from the channel north east, but for lower wind directions, I think that is actually right. Its just there is no storm energy. 

It's partly right as the general set-up is there, like Dan was saying. With Chris Fawkes' wording along with the thunderstorm graphics, it seems to be have been over-exaggerated though. Still, the day is still young, and something awesome might kick off and prove Chris right, who knows!? ?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...