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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

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just hoping that tonight i will see a nice large thunderstorm that goes mental fingers crossed

?

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1 minute ago, sparky1972 said:

certainly looking like this warm spell is going to end on a whimper for here, maybe a bit of light rain tomorrow and saturday looking wet but no storms currently forecast.

Premature thundercation? 

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Just now, Sam Jackson said:

just hoping that tonight i will see a nice large thunderstorm that goes mental fingers crossed

?

I’m with you on that. Pretty much all we can do is just radar watch and hope ? instead of looking at these models going berserk and changing all the time ?

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In fairness, I’m pretty sure last July’s forecast from the models wasn’t particularly inspiring for my location - but it was one of the best light shows I’ve ever seen when it went off. 

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I wouldn't take precipitation charts too seriously and just watch the satellites and live radars instead from later today to watch developments. Countless times I have had rainfall from storm forecasts shown right above me but ends up missing me 100 miles to my West or East.

How well do models pick up elevated storms? Am I right in saying rainfall is often less with these types of storms, as it evaporates before reaching the ground? Is that common here?

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does anyone know where the location of the trough is at this time?

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Posted (edited)

Looks to be a line of storms developing now off the coast of N Ireland and W Scotland.

Edited by Zak M
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1 minute ago, Azazel said:

In fairness, I’m pretty sure last July’s forecast from the models wasn’t particularly inspiring for my location - but it was one of the best light shows I’ve ever seen when it went off. 

yeah i remember that one went on for around 3 to 4 hours, was mental

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Gonna be a shame if we lose this crazy heat with a whimper as seems to be the case down here. South East has been so poor so far this year for storms.

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Worth noting there is high availability of precipitable water for S/SE parts a plume of moisture from Bay of Biscay. There is potential for severe flash flooding....

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What's actually happening with the storms tomorrow? My weather apps keep changing! Years ago we'd get a juicy storm up here after a spell like this, I remember the drains backing up and the lightning would cause at least one bulb to pop.

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2 minutes ago, Sam Jackson said:

yeah i remember that one went on for around 3 to 4 hours, was mental

Honestly driving back to Andover was crazy. Flashes in all directions every second and the odd fork coming down and striking in the distance. Genuinely as close to anything representing War of the World’s I’ve seen.

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But But.,........

For you Kent Folk, the lesser known Harmonie model is showing a corking MCS Kent Clipper on Friday night from 23z until 03z 

Now that will cheer you all up

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10 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Latest MetO video forecast showed much more widespread rain across the SE than that so I’m very confused

Just watched that, the data being used is from an earlier UKV run 

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29.5°C now here. Crazy. Still worried about  tomorrow afternoon; don’t like the way WRF shows no CAPE after 1 pm thanks to the westerly wind.

We’ll see, but feeling a little more hopeful. Liverpool Airport TAF shows  thunderstorm rain with hail starting 7 am.

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7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Looks to be a line of storms developing now off the coast of N Ireland and W Scotland.

Yes a lot of the focus has been on southern areas, myself included obviously, but those areas are certainly one to watch as well

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Posted (edited)

ECM is an absolute tragedy for the SE ? can’t make up its mind. Kills off the cells on the south coast at 03z

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

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Hi gang ,having been in this sort of synoptic situation or similar many times , i feel that once we get to 10pm this evening it will become more clear as to areas that could see or not see any storms ,at the moment i am expecting very good lightning displays , and hopefully some localised mega storms .but its going to be a waiting game ,remember how things can suddenly develope , hope you all get to enjoy ,cheers STellas all round. 

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10 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

ECM is an absolute tragedy for the SE ? can’t make up its mind. Kills off the cells on the south coast at 03z

Not where I am!

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CS England reporting from the valley of death  sandwiched between the Ridgeway and the Chilterns. Current temp 30.5c, RH 43%. Picture postcard blue sky.....almost continental looking.  MetO have never forecast anything other than light showers for us   and I'd say they're right. Shame I'm not a sun worshipper ?

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19 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Honestly driving back to Andover was crazy. Flashes in all directions every second and the odd fork coming down and striking in the distance. Genuinely as close to anything representing War of the World’s I’ve seen.

love the war of the worlds reference, the storm in the tom cruise version near the bridge prob resonates with us all

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Posted (edited)

First bits of mid-level cloud showing up recently around West Dorset area now. One to watch for sure.

Edited by Convective
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