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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

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26 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Think it's safe to say the UKV isn't budging 

temp.gif

Once again, thank you Matt. These are so helpful to see.

Starting to feel excited now; even if it's further west than the UKV as per other models and Paul's thinking, I will get myself in position to see them (barring a disaster and they're Devon-westwards only)

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8 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Loving the way these models nowadays factor in the Cone of Silence, very last frame kills it stone dead to my South - Looks legit haha

Kills it right over me like the traditional N Kent way. 

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Looking ever more promising for the south and east into Friday 

9ACC8ED5-F442-4703-ADA0-3601BAF6CB11.jpeg

EB925A68-3B3B-4D65-9D64-4AFBABFC3262.jpeg

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Just now, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Looking ever more promising for the south and east into Friday 

9ACC8ED5-F442-4703-ADA0-3601BAF6CB11.jpeg

EB925A68-3B3B-4D65-9D64-4AFBABFC3262.jpeg

Ok, THAT has raised my hopes...

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Ok, THAT has raised my hopes...

Looking like an MCS. Wonder if it’ll get pushed further southeast and become a Kent Clipper ? 

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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Posted (edited)

Looking at the met office radar from their latest forecast it looks like this potential storm line on Friday morning extends right across the channel from North of London into northern France? 

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Ok, THAT has raised my hopes...

Thats even further east than the ukv!!and i thought ukv was too far east!!

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3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Thats even further east than the ukv!!and i thought ukv was too far east!!

The ECM actually develops a few more storms to the NW of the main one and covers all of C/S England with storms.

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7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Thats even further east than the ukv!!and i thought ukv was too far east!!

It ties in with the UKV in that UKV is similar to it come 6am. The UKV action shown further west is earlier in the night

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Interesting there's now a warning for three days from the Met. Local forecasts till having none of it.

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Posted (edited)
 
socialmedialogo.png
CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.
socialmedialogo.png
CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.
socialmedialogo.png
CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

?

Edited by Zak M
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4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I am loving this severe thunderstorms risk @staplehurst ? - once again many thanks for putting out a fantastic detailed forecast! Always look forward to it! 

49926BEC-02FF-4F09-B5D1-98983E0F86D8.thumb.png.04ed9cb6d268323a3ef4762ba75b254f.png

socialmedialogo.png
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Coming back to tonight...if anything kicks off later/early hours I will be all over it! 

Lovely out there just now - really looking forward to the next 36-48 hours!

A34308A4-B562-4750-A068-D66E6D07C6D5.thumb.jpeg.d13576a69c14d21e3c45f7b3464e9afb.jpeg

 

All the best everyone!

I still find it mad how you still have the sun up there while we're heading into twilight down here! Definitely got to get myself up there one June ?

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Glad to say my annual leave has been given & Im free to travel from 1pm tomorrow.

New Gopro for the front dash, Nikon camera ready to go & a laptop full of the Simpsons to keep me occupied.

Been out on the Kayak today and its been incredibly hot, tonight its very humid outside - no breeze.

I need something fresh.

 

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Posted (edited)

all eyes on Sat 24 tomorrow, looking for any home grown developments over the West ?? 

All eyes covered in sweat tonight .. as we try and keep cool

Edited by ancientsolar
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Posted (edited)

Still no real change on the latest UKV

temp.gif

Edited by matt111
Wrong image
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24 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I am loving this severe thunderstorms risk @staplehurst ? - once again many thanks for putting out a fantastic detailed forecast! Always look forward to it! 

49926BEC-02FF-4F09-B5D1-98983E0F86D8.thumb.png.04ed9cb6d268323a3ef4762ba75b254f.png

socialmedialogo.png
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Coming back to tonight...if anything kicks off later/early hours I will be all over it! 

Lovely out there just now - really looking forward to the next 36-48 hours!

A34308A4-B562-4750-A068-D66E6D07C6D5.thumb.jpeg.d13576a69c14d21e3c45f7b3464e9afb.jpeg

 

All the best everyone!

Fingers crossed we get lucky Mr Frost, Inverclyde has dodged the storms as of late so this severe risk has to deliver for us! 

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4 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Still no real change on the latest UKV

temp.gif

The West coast of Scotland looks like it could see a good lightning display. I have my camera and tripod at the ready if it all kicks off.

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7 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Still no real change on the latest UKV

temp.gif

It's consistent if nothing else! 

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Has Ireland the far West of Scotland ever seen a risk like this before? 

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1 minute ago, ChezWeather said:

Has Ireland the far West of Scotland ever seen a risk like this before? 

I live in Lisburn and whilst we have had some decent storms, the last memorable lightning show during the night was back in June 2016,, but even then it wasn't forecast, it was an import from Wales that made its way across the Irish Sea and intensified over land, was a stifling hot day beforehand. 

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Although I understand resolution differences it’s not often the GFS can be forecasting 10mm in a 3 hour window and the Met Office little.

 

What does the NMM say.

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46 minutes ago, Lu. said:

New Gopro for the front dash, Nikon camera ready to go & a laptop full of the Simpsons to keep me occupied.

I hope you get some embiggenation

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