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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

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1 minute ago, matt111 said:

 

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Blimey, that's too good to be true! Thank you for posting these!

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1 minute ago, matt111 said:

 

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Stop it I don't like being ground zero 24hrs+ before an event!!

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Posted (edited)

This looks tasty...

 

Edited by Zak M
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20 minutes ago, matt111 said:

 

temp.gif

Looks half decent in the SE around 8am too.

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13 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I certainly like this...

 

I like the first bit. Not so keen on the bit afterwards. 

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4 hours ago, Mapantz said:

It would be nice to see some elevated lightning Thursday night in to the turn of Friday, as it'll be my birthday. I fancy sitting under the gazebo with a cider and watching mother nature!

Well I certainly hope you get your birthday wish Mapantz. When done, please send them up my way to Wiltshire.

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Some agreement with the Met Office and UKV for early Friday morning, a very similar shape and area of the activity on both.

1ts.PNG

2ts.PNG

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Based on current model output, could be some monster thunderstorms across W Scotland & N Ireland tomorrow. A number of severe thunderstorms there a genuine possibility.

For Southern areas tomorrow night. UKV has looked increasingly impressive across CS England which is a positive; however UKV is currently the furthest east for any thundery activity so will need to pay attention to UKV, NMM, EURO4 & AROME updates later.

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2 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Some agreement with the Met Office and UKV for early Friday morning, a very similar shape and area of the activity on both.

1ts.PNG

2ts.PNG

UKV is one of the Met Office's models so I'm not surprised they look almost identical haha!

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2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Based on current model output, could be some monster thunderstorms across W Scotland & N Ireland tomorrow. A number of severe thunderstorms there a genuine possibility.

For Southern areas tomorrow night. UKV has looked increasingly impressive across CS England which is a positive; however UKV is currently the furthest east for any thundery activity so will need to pay attention to UKV, NMM, EURO4 & AROME updates later.

I'd still take the UKV though wouldn't be to much of a drive east along the M4!

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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

UKV is one of the Met Office's models so I'm not surprised they look almost identical haha!

Ohh that explains it then, i was unaware of that, thanks for clarifying lol ?

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I must say that despite my GFS related elation (i should know better even at this range by now) the UKV is very poor up here unless it plans to unzip overnight. 

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image.thumb.png.7bdd056c849b99fb0967920c8f0c115e.png

Promising signs for the people of Kent that might get their first real taste of a storm this Summer!

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What are the chances of the SE seeing imported multi cell storms from France tomorrow night? 

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25 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Based on current model output, could be some monster thunderstorms across W Scotland & N Ireland tomorrow. A number of severe thunderstorms there a genuine possibility.

For Southern areas tomorrow night. UKV has looked increasingly impressive across CS England which is a positive; however UKV is currently the furthest east for any thundery activity so will need to pay attention to UKV, NMM, EURO4 & AROME updates later.

Now I’m never getting a storm since you’ve said that! ? 

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Looking like a damp squib here.

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1 hour ago, matt111 said:

 

temp.gif

I hope so! 

It's unlikely to play out exactly as shown, which is a shame as it's a direct hit for our neck of the woods!

Having said that, how wrong can it be when it is only a day away? 

Anyway I'm off to charge my camera, I have a good feeling I'm gonna be using it tomorrow ?⛈️⛈️⛈️⛈️⛈️

 

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8 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

see what the updates are like tomorrow morning.

Look out for Dan's update on convectiveweather.co.uk too, usually they're posted late in the evening. Although I'm sure we'll know about it in this thread not long after it goes out.

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1 minute ago, Lance M said:

Look out for Dan's update on convectiveweather.co.uk too, usually they're posted late in the evening. Although I'm sure we'll know about it in this thread not long after it goes out.

yeah he is pretty on the ball with this. 

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2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hows the gfs looking in terms of storms guys!!?

East favoured, esp NE, Leicester a chance I'd say, Saturday may actually be better chance for the west?

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AROME 12z is not a good look for anywhere on the south coast besides Devon. AROME is hinting at MCS development but tracking straight up the Irish Sea.

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Thing is, when I were a lad in the 70s and 80s, all our thunderstorms came up and survived the channel crossing.

Now they dont. So a squal line could be the best thing for us down in Devon. Mind you it's getting sticky as the days gone on and I gave up walking on the moors due to the heat today..

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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

AROME 12z is not a good look for anywhere on the south coast besides Devon. AROME is hinting at MCS development but tracking straight up the Irish Sea.

tbh, I like the sound of that, as I can have a decent nights sleep as working fri

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