Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

I take it with the elevated stuff you dont hear much thunder am I correct on this? 

Depends just how high the bases are, if they above 8-9k ft there’s usually a big drop off in CG activity, so it’s usually more grumbly/crackly opposed to BANG! 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

18 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

I take it with the elevated stuff you dont hear much thunder am I correct on this? 

Oooh you can get some great booms from an elevated storm believe me

[alexisj9]

18 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

I take it with the elevated stuff you dont hear much thunder am I correct on this? 

No, I've had constant flashing and no breaks in thunder at all from that set up. However it is quieter that low based storms. Often you can see the flashes from miles away though, then you don't hear them. Also if you get a cg strike, you know about it, just like low based storms. 

[ChannelThunder]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Oooh you can get some great booms from an elevated storm believe me

Absolutely, there's nothing lacking about the thunder at times, believe me @viking_smb - especially when they're producing CGs as mentioned above.

I prefer elevated storms in this country, and surface-based while in the states.

[AMeltedFlake]

5am Friday Morning

[ChannelThunder]

10 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

5am Friday Morning

Could be a lonnng night, and the GF is expecting me to be up to go for a picnic on Friday

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

5am Friday Morning

Bank  

although I was hoping to be in bed by midnight as got a bit of a beer up on Friday! 

[Ben Sainsbury]

12 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Could be a lonnng night, and the GF is expecting me to be up to go for a picnic on Friday

Looks like your typical weak channel MCS, since there is sufficient CAPE & DLS available. Shame particularly later in the night only the eastern edges will see much in the way of lightning activity. I think IOW may be in a cracking spot.

That saying EURO4 favours far western areas and has performed particularly well as of late. AROME imo does the best of imported setups but still not great by any means. Shame it's not in range yet.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[ChannelThunder]

2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Looks like your typical weak channel MCS, since there is sufficient CAPE & DLS available. Shame particularly later in the night only the eastern edges will see much in the way of lightning activity. I think IOW may be in a cracking spot.

That saying EURO4 favours far western areas and has performed particularly well as of late. AROME imo does the best of imported setups but still not great by any means. Shame it's not in range yet.

Indeed. Right now I'm thinking I will head to the hills West of Salisbury for starters, but that's likely to change with the latest model runs tomorrow

[viking_smb]

4 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Indeed. Right now I'm thinking I will head to the hills West of Salisbury for starters, but that's likely to change with the latest model runs tomorrow

i can see it being a kent clipper by tomorrow. 

[Convective]

Great day here. 21 degrees and a few ribbons of AcCas at 2,500ft.

[Mr Frost]

Hopefully most of us can get out and about over the next couple of days - risk is there for some cracking elevated and surface based storms throughout the UK and Ireland. (Very photogenic I would imagine)
Maybe even a supercell or two. 

Also here are a couple of frames from the 09Z UKV run for Friday.

12:00:

 

15:00:

 

Has June ever been a great month for storms in the East/SE of England? (2017-2019 lightning activity below)

 

July seems to be the main month to deliver the goods in those parts nowadays? (July 2017-2019 lightning activity below)

 

Quite interesting.

Edit: @Oliver Wyndham-lewis I would not worry mate about charts this far out - plenty of time for things to change or go ti*s up! 

Plenty of other models/charts show different - as to be expected at this range. 
As we all know whether it be thunderstorms or snowfall it’s all about keeping an eye on the sky/radar on the day. 

Edited June 24, 2020 by Mr Frost

[viking_smb]

4 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

 

what does UKV say for thurs night then?

Edited June 24, 2020 by Supacell
Removed long quote

[oliverek7]

4 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

 

Ooh no that UKV does not look good at all for the south. Where has all the activity gone? Hope it comes back

Edited June 24, 2020 by Supacell
Removed long quote

[Azazel]

When I run through the frames of GFS, it almost looks as if any storm activity forming Thursday night over the south will move from west to east which is a little different from the more traditional south to north.

[Chris Lea-Alex]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

It would be nice to see some elevated lightning Thursday night in to the turn of Friday, as it'll be my birthday. I fancy sitting under the gazebo with a cider and watching mother nature!

It is my birthday on Friday.  Naturally my days off work don't coincide with this...

[oliverek7]

4 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

 

Yep I’m trying to stop looking at all the charts but can’t because I’m so desperate for a proper severe thunderstorm . Hopefully I get something!

Edited June 24, 2020 by Supacell
Removed long quote

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

met office has issue   yellow Yellow warning Thunderstorm 16:00 Tomorrow UTC+1 09:00 Fri 26  Whilst many places will be dry or see little rain, thunderstorms may cause flooding and disruption in a few places. What to expect There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads There is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost What should I do? Travelling in storms, rain and strong wind Stay safe in thunder and lightning Further details Issued: 10:16 (UTC+1) on Wed 24 Jun 2020 Thunderstorms may develop across parts of western UK late on Thursday afternoon and into the evening. A larger area of thunderstorms is then expected to move northeastwards overnight into Friday. Many places will miss the worst of the storms but where they do occur torrential downpours could bring 30-40 mm rain in less than two hours. Lightning and hail are also hazard conditions South West England Bath and North East Somerset Bournemouth Bristol Cornwall Devon Dorset Gloucestershire Isles of Scilly North Somerset Plymouth Poole Somerset South Gloucestershire Swindon Torbay Wiltshire

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 hours ago, viking_smb said:

I take it with the elevated stuff you dont hear much thunder am I correct on this? 

Some of the best thunder I’ve heard has been from elevated storms. A CG has a greater distance to travel, which means the Amperage of current is much greater, resulting in more quicker expansion of the surrounding air. July 23rd 2013 had some awesome thunder. 

[thunderhead 2005]

1 hour ago, Azazel said:

When I run through the frames of GFS, it almost looks as if any storm activity forming Thursday night over the south will move from west to east which is a little different from the more traditional south to north.

This reminds me of a storm on Friday 7th June 1996, hot summers day like this and storms moved in from the SW around evening went on for hours.

Edited June 24, 2020 by thunderhead 2005

[summer blizzard]

On 21/06/2020 at 20:47, cheese said:

Spot on for here, not even a single distant rumble.

The closest we got was a thunderstorm which passed through the Wakefield-Huddersfield area on the Tuesday but was too far south in extent. 

3 hours ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

What’s this second area of precip moving up from the south/southwest on Saturday very early morning that the met office is showing? Anything thundery within that?

That’s the actual cold front shunting away the remaining warmth. Fridays feature is a squall like trough.

[oliverek7]

 

4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The closest we got was a thunderstorm which passed through the Wakefield-Huddersfield area on the Tuesday but was too far south in extent. 

That’s the actual cold front shunting away the remaining warmth. Fridays feature is a squall like trough.

Ah right ok  

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Azazel said:

When I run through the frames of GFS, it almost looks as if any storm activity forming Thursday night over the south will move from west to east which is a little different from the more traditional south to north.

The source instability actually move up from north west Spain starting movement tonight, it’s just that as the low to the west moves in the feature becomes more front like. So the feature will move east but within it you probably will see some fairly s-n movement.

[matt111]

Could be a long night for CS England if the UKV 12z is right 

[matt111]

4 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Could be a long night for CS England if the UKV 12z is right