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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

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Just now, Zak M said:

I think @North Sea Man will be there in that small little dot in the North Sea ?

Lol

that damn fly on the monitor?

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

It's pretty clear that elevated storms dying off on Friday morning give way to surface based storms during Friday afternoon. Looks like the focus for surface based storms will be C and E areas. There could be a few western areas that miss out on the decent elevated stuff AND the surface based stuff, looking at the timing of it all.

Looks like I'm one of those places, typical.

I'm sure this has been a regular occurrence in recent years with regards to bad timing with overnight storms...may be my subjective memory though! :oldlaugh: 

Edited by Chris K

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9 minutes ago, Chris K said:

I'm sure this has been a regular occurrence in recent years with regards to bad timing with overnight storms...may be my subjective memory though! :oldlaugh: 

No I’ve just made this point on the model thread, the elevated stuff switch has usually benefited the south and south west coasts with great light shows recently has often left a lot of debris and mid level clag behind, the models on multiple occasions have been too quick to clear this leaving busts inland, with the risk of elevated convection kicking off later than normal, potentially last midnight and through the early hours surface based convection during Friday daytime will need all the help it can get. 

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Latest UKV seems even more keen on the elevated stuff

image.thumb.png.8972e7d8a0b8332d5d61c655070837ba.png

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1 minute ago, matt111 said:

Latest UKV seems even more keen on the elevated stuff

image.thumb.png.8972e7d8a0b8332d5d61c655070837ba.png

Lovely stuff! Even better than the previous run!

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6 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Latest UKV seems even more keen on the elevated stuff

image.thumb.png.8972e7d8a0b8332d5d61c655070837ba.png

Could be a good nightime show for southern england and eventually here in the midlands!!is that moving direct north or more north north west or  north east?got an animation with that chart mate?

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43 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is anyone interested in a meet up at some point(social distancing of cause) at the end of the week for a mini UK storm chase?

i am quiet happy to head down as far as the S midlands or as far north as Cumbria to Newcastle depending on timings and storm locations

somewhere in this circle but if the storms are really good then i will push the boundary a tad?

Untitled.thumb.png.86a3a1ba620160ba2fb061b8e78d01b7.png

PM me if you would like to meet up,happy storm chasing guys.

Potentially, we'll see how things develop over the next 48 hours!

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3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Could be a good nightime show for southern england and eventually here in the midlands!!is that moving direct north or more north north west or  north east?got an animation with that chart mate?

It's the last frame unfortunately!

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Latest UKV seems even more keen on the elevated stuff

image.thumb.png.8972e7d8a0b8332d5d61c655070837ba.png

Don’t like it when I’m in the sweet spot two days out as it’ll almost certainly move lol.

Still would be perfect, love watching storms from the clifftops fire about 20-40miles off shore and being able to seethe vertical growth from the mid levels, it’s amazing.

Edited by Alderc
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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Could be a good nightime show for southern england and eventually here in the midlands!!is that moving direct north or more north north west or  north east?got an animation with that chart mate?

Only 3 hour intervals that far out and the 18z doesn't got any further. This is the previous frame which isn't really a lot of use. 

image.png

Edited by matt111

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Just now, Alderc said:

Don’t like it when I’m in the sweet spot two days out as it’ll almost certainly move lol 

Yes I was going to say, that looks too good to be true. I swear for the July event last year, UKV had it a little further west or east and I went out on the off chance more than anything. Worrying.

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1 minute ago, matt111 said:

Only 3 hour intervals that far out and the 18z doesn't got any further. This is the previous frame which isn't really a lot of use 

image.png

Shows stuff starting to fire in the channel though. Around 10pm is the point I’m usually trying to retain my bored friend’s interest by looking at the radar and telling them things are starting to happen. 11ish is usually when we see the first distant flicker and they settle down.

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Posted (edited)

Yes the timings are key here,we need the trough out west to slow up a tad on Friday for surface heating to burn the ex MCS clag out of the way from Thursday night if there is one?,any rain that falls mainland from that said MCS would create misty conditions due to warm surfaces as the rain impacts,the humidity would be through the roof though

i am so looking forward to this event but i am keeping my tempers/emotions low for now,remember guys that you can have all the cape/li in the would but if the cap is too strong with no trigger then it will just get pushed out into the North sea

there is quiet a way to go yet for specifics/timings/handling's of where these storms(if any)will be and as always with storms it is almost if not a now cast,radar watching situation.

Metcheck's storm risk maps from Wednesday evening.Thursday evening and Friday lunchtime.

WEEKLY_MET_STORMNETCDF025_72362020UK_PRMSL_KINDEX_48.thumb.png.ab4cdf84b858e06040bcdadce54b308d.png

WEEKLY_MET_STORMNETCDF025_72362020UK_PRMSL_KINDEX_72.thumb.png.e70c2ea2991f67e8eea2778ecce6a111.png

WEEKLY_MET_STORMNETCDF025_72362020UK_PRMSL_KINDEX_90.thumb.png.dc582b3ff06a9c3be014079d515e7efb.png

WWW.METCHECK.COM

Metcheck.com - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 23 June 2020 - Expert meteorologists take a weekly look at thunderstorm potential around the world with...

shows some interest west midlands up into NW England on Wednesday evening then a possible MCS coming up from NW France Thursday evening then trough from the west Friday afternoon.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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18z GFS keener on an elevated display through Thursday night into early Friday

image.thumb.png.f38c104ee996fa6ba3468476d432b78c.png

image.thumb.png.ca7850c27da70f936d916ca99ab63d94.png

Perhaps turning surface based through Fri afternoon for NE areas in particular

image.thumb.png.49bf5a4e720d5f5c07b73f91d2e6eb9a.png

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A snippet from Matt D from this morning

Perhaps 2 waves of more notable activity?

1st one THU night and up to around 07:00 on Friday morning over Wales, SW England and across Cent S England into parts of Sussex and Hampshire/Berkshire. Clusters of storms firing over NW France and W Channel / Channel Isles, merging into 1 or 2 MCS structures and moving northwards. GFS 00z and 06z hinting a second MCS tracking NE later in the night over central Channel. Very frequent lightning possible. Activity mostly elevated above boundary layer, especially between 00:00 and 07:00.

Then a period of convective minimum around mid-morning, when overnight MCS activity climatologically tends to weaken, due to reduced instability.

From late morning and through afternoon, N+E Midlands, East Anglia and E and NE England. Further storms firing, ahead of cold front / wind shift line. Some active surface based storms could fire and be locally very nasty.

WWW.UKWEATHERWORLD.CO.UK

For anyone in Lincolnshire, lots of lightning shown coming in from Melton Mowbray towards Grantham. Originally this started off between Leicester and...

hehe

39 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Potentially, we'll see how things develop over the next 48 hours!

Did you have to say that word Ben...:wallbash:?

 

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Haven’t had a single rumble here in the NE so far... fingers crossed for Friday night ?

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30 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Did you have to say that word Ben...:wallbash:?

Haha?

For what it's worth GFS 18z shows a more widespread feature Thurs Night across CS England. Modest ML CAPE associated.

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Yarrum said:

Haven’t had a single rumble here in the NE so far... fingers crossed for Friday night ?

You might get lucky tomorrow night/early hours of Thursday. ?
 

CCC9DA13-5F41-49E8-A212-FFA550A6BBDC.thumb.png.84526598de353a4289a37366d7978764.png

9E628088-EB0F-4994-BF08-7D47A1A8918B.thumb.png.4ec177ee88794c2b6d410ffd86da2e4d.png

 

1F806347-BCB6-4E82-A4C1-816EFF24A93B.thumb.png.ca71635a9aa63cb204e6f12df1d9dc08.png
 

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 24 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 25 Jun 2020 

ISSUED 20:58 UTC Tue 23 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge extends across western Europe into southern Scandinavia on Wednesday, with a longwave upper trough to the west of Ireland. The net result is a southwesterly flow aloft above Britain and Ireland, with an increasingly hot airmass (1000-850mb thickness increasing from ~1390m on Tuesday to ~1400m by Wednesday). Diurnal heating will yield 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE by the late afternoon and into the evening, but given the deep well-mixed boundary layer, substantial cap in the 750-800mb layer and lack of any significant forcing mechanism, deep convection is unlikely. This is essentially a "loaded gun" environment. Overall, the strength of the southeasterly breeze is likely to be too strong to allow any substantial low-level convergence to develop, except for perhaps N / NW England into Wales which combined with upslope flow over the mountains may just be sufficient to break through the cap and develop an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the evening over N Wales or the northern Pennines (more likely the latter) - however, even if convection manages to initiate, it may struggle to become sustained due to the very dry profile aloft.

Nonetheless, if a thunderstorm can develop and become sustained, the magnitude of CAPE and well-sheared environment (both speed and directional) suggests it could become a supercell, capable of producing frequent lightning and large hail 2-3cm in diameter. Any storms that do develop will generally drift due N or NNE. However, given low confidence of any convection initiating we have refrained from issuing a SLGT or SVR for now - but the main area of interest is the northern Pennines into Northumberland or SE Scotland.

 

During the night hours, Theta-E will steadily increase in a zone from N Wales and across northern England, this then shifting northwestwards across southern and central Scotland through the early hours of Thursday. A combination of warming around ~900mb, moistening between 750-850mb and slight cooling in the 600-700mb layer will ultimately lead to increasing mid-level instability and a greater chance of scattered elevated thunderstorms erupting over parts of Scotland during the early hours of Thursday morning (the later in the night, the more likely). The exact coverage and location is a little uncertain, but a SLGT has been introduced where this is considered most likely - but the area may need shifting west or east depending on trends nearer the time. Given 400-800 J/kg and strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer, lightning could be rather frequent as storms drift generally due North.

socialmedialogo.png
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

Edited by Mr Frost
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That would be a pleasant surprise , the last decent nighttime storm I remember was after that heatwave in late July 2018..

would be even better if we get one on both nights ?

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6 minutes ago, Yarrum said:

That would be a pleasant surprise , the last decent nighttime storm I remember was after that heatwave in late July 2018..

would be even better if we get one on both nights ?

With a bit of luck we'll see some widespread destabilisation of the plume on Thursday night.

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9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

With a bit of luck we'll see some widespread destabilisation of the plume on Thursday night.

Fingers crossed, if nothing else to offset the subsequent boredom that will come with the Atlantic moving in.

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EURO4 doesn't have anything for SW England in the early hours of Friday ?

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If anyone's interested... 

image.thumb.png.9999e91a656af61750976787abf841cb.pngimage.thumb.png.e9d30bd3a8fd12b642e6fb4ca20fc170.png

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