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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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Fingers crossed for a late night show. I’ll take anything but the idea of 6am storms from an elevated slate grey sky doesn’t whet my appetite as much.

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This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramp

My view of the Bude cell   Edit:excuse the washing

Very impressive lightning display here in Scotland in the early hours. I am just a amateur photographer but I am pleased with what I managed to capture. Here is a selection of all the best ones I got.

Posted Images

Thurs night/early hours of Fri looking good for north of Ireland, Been ages from we've had a decent night time storm,,, June 2016 was the last memorable one.... Fingers crossed

Edited by Scott H
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1 hour ago, Azazel said:

GFS has storms moving into the south from around midnight on Thursday. 

The GFZ 00 and 06Z doesn't show anything in the South..

viewimage.thumb.png.b7eb84364b7cb88df7b2fc304e440096.png

 

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9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The GFZ 00 and 06Z doesn't show anything in the South..

viewimage.thumb.png.b7eb84364b7cb88df7b2fc304e440096.png

 

Mine does! How confusing!

Edit: you're 24 hours too early, just spotted it ?

Edited by Lance M
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Interesting - GFS and ICON both going for storms breaking out over Pennine and North Welsh hills on Weds eve. EURO4 having none of it.

Edited by Pat Butcher
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The 00Z Thursday shows nothing, 00Z Friday does, that's where I was confused.

1396709796_viewimage(1).thumb.png.61ba1dd00ea6233913ad659aceb91c56.png

I was interpreting it as the 00Z Thursday. 

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06z GEM is pretty interesting, it delays the trough and sends what looks like an MCS through C/S England through Friday night and into the early hours of Saturday morning.

Edited by Zak M
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3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

06z GEM is pretty interesting, it delays the trough and sends what looks like an MCS through C/S England through Friday night and into the hours of Saturday morning.

hoorah.  

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So much CAPE build up here on Wednesday evening and then overnight thursday in to Friday morning. Just need a trigger.

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48 minutes ago, Zak M said:

06z GEM is pretty interesting, it delays the trough and sends what looks like an MCS through C/S England through Friday night and into the early hours of Saturday morning.

That would be amazing if further north I finish work 11pm that day ?

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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

06z GEM is pretty interesting, it delays the trough and sends what looks like an MCS through C/S England through Friday night and into the early hours of Saturday morning.

Yes please!!!!!!!!!!!

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Just a point when looking GFS and it’s Cape values, it’s massively over egging moisture even today. At 15z today it has large area of 16-18c dewpoints across central England, in reality they are 12-13c with a few 14s and 15s. 

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Another GFS run showing a post-midnight light show is possible for the south coast on Thursday night...

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2 hours ago, Zak M said:

06z GEM is pretty interesting, it delays the trough and sends what looks like an MCS through C/S England through Friday night and into the early hours of Saturday morning.

ICON indicating the same too, although less storm cluster more igniting front.

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Wow Friday indeed is looking very interesting. Around 1200-1500kJ of CAPE and LI up to around -4 to -6 in some areas! That is strong instability and a real potential for "severe".

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Everything on standby for Thursday then. Probably drive to the same field I drove to last July and nearly locked myself out of my car in the panic and lost part of my hubcap haha.

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Right. Now it’s getting to the time for the high res models to decide, I’ll be watching them until Thursday evening. Still so much to be ironed out between then and now, and the forecasts are constantly chopping and changing. I’m hoping Thursday night can deliver some night time displays! Some models show activity breaking out over NW France and drifting N Thursday evening, and then a more SB development through Friday over the midlands. These events more often than not accelerate in time I find, so we can’t bank on anything until the event IMO. It may be on Thursday daytime we see developments, and then a late evening display. Plus the best activity almost always develops to the east of the modelled forecast of outbreaks. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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That's Friday booked off work, can't pass up on this one!

With heat like this there's a real chance of some severe storms if the right ingredients come into play

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4 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Looking like another Eastward shift? Hoping Lincolnshire gets some good ones 

image.png

Based on recent models that’s not a shift east to my mind - that’s a slight delay in the clearance of the heat. Long may it continue - a shunt back of a few hours would be great.

Edited by Harry
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2 minutes ago, Harry said:

Based on recent models that’s not a shift east to my mind - that’s a slight delay in the clearance of the heat. Long may it continue - a shunt back of a few hours would be great.

Going to be interesting to see how it pans out, hoping storms will brew during the afternoon to see some good towers build for the main activity to kick off later in the evening 

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