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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Josh Rubio Community Regular

Josh Rubio

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
8 hours ago, Zak M said:

This is still quite far out at this stage so I'm not getting excited yet, but the ECM, GFS and GEM have been showing widespread thunderstorms being wafted up from the continent next week. One to watch.

windy.png

How long until they break out further north and west, just like they did last time?

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted

ATM I would say the first possible risk of storms could be along the boundary of the warmer air, looks like the 14C 850 hpa line 3B03FB54-5F86-4741-8997-4A6DEFFAB292.thumb.gif.2c6353559bec0ba0f36d0d5652badd75.gifF48002F2-1F3D-4B17-BA95-585159FE0B7E.thumb.png.0e3d9a29bf2634ae37f10cd1e622a5df.png8081A520-BEE6-4281-8CDA-5A285114C0CC.thumb.png.57a1c6c1a8264b2d0b6428db7e268bce.png still many more runs needed for any confidence on this.

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James1979 Community Regular

James1979

Posted
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, gales, all extreme weather really!
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
Posted
1 hour ago, Josh Rubio said:

How long until they break out further north and west, just like they did last time?

Time to book a break in Lincolnshire.

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

I turned down a trip up to Blackpool for next week. At least I can head up there and stay at mum’s place if there’s storms there and not here, but it wouldn’t work the other way round if I turned up checked the radar and left to drive home again  

 

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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted

Cheeky wee risk of thunderstorms/downpours breaking out over Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland on Friday...

126EDDF0-D0DF-438E-9F5C-3C7262225988.thumb.png.64d39bafa4d6a3f8fa6ec2a9eb40d790.png2913C05A-AEA9-4D05-BF8B-6533099EDA2B.thumb.png.68de08ac7f7ff74291715d7311d88e5b.png90B5F839-EE7D-4B0D-A478-7E3004FD924E.thumb.png.5a35da670b220c01788925c1460efe10.png

My local Met Office regional gives it a mention:

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

A bright start to Friday and feeling warm but turning cloudy with heavy and thundery showers developing. 

As ever...we shall see! 

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted

Can't help but enjoy the latest ECM run, as it's not often you see a train of LPs and associated instability coming up from the south in that manner. If it comes off, many of us may get our first proper storm of the year, and those in many areas further north may get their tenth good storm of the year (tongue-in-cheek by the way..I know some of you in Northern areas have also missed out entirely!). 

Way too early to be confident, but nice to see these kind of model runs at least.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted
46 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Can't help but enjoy the latest ECM run, as it's not often you see a train of LPs and associated instability coming up from the south in that manner. If it comes off, many of us may get our first proper storm of the year, and those in many areas further north may get their tenth good storm of the year (tongue-in-cheek by the way..I know some of you in Northern areas have also missed out entirely!). 

Way too early to be confident, but nice to see these kind of model runs at least.

Any chance you could share a chart or two @Lance M? GFS when I looked this morning was definitely having a big wobble for next week. 

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Harry said:

Any chance you could share a chart or two @Lance M? GFS when I looked this morning was definitely having a big wobble for next week. 

Sure  I've attached a few from WXCharts to give an idea. And yeah, GFS is a mess at the moment!

Edit: the below haven't ended up in time order.
 

3.PNG

1.PNG

2.PNG

Edited by Lance M
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Vestan Apprentice

Vestan

Posted
  • Location: Witney, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms!
  • Location: Witney, Oxon
Posted (edited)

The BBC were talking about a trapped low in the Bay of Biscay around next tues/weds last night?

Looks like it could be the usual excitement for southerners before it all kicks off around Northampton and moves northwards....

Edited by Vestan
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Cheers @Lance M much appreciated.

@Vestan it is looking better for the south this time round. Although models wavering quite a bit still - now going for 36C again for my neck of the woods on Friday and staying in the 30s into next week, with thunder potentiel Mon, Weds and Thurs (all of course knife edge and subject to revision).

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
  • Popular Post
Posted

Certainly some interest showing on the NetWx MR model:

1311432122_viewimage(1).thumb.png.61f339774bbe13d00b783289a510ce7d.png viewimage.thumb.png.d5ca4e717ec366d46742907743c93e0a.png

Maybe some imported activity. Plenty of moisture pushing up and dew points creeping up to 17 / 18°C in Southern counties.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

For those of us ancient enough to recall the Capital's intense thundery downpours of July 1973 and August '75, something about this chart looks disturbing: 30C+, relatively low SLP, and very little wind:

h850t850eu.png Beware of what you wish for!?

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted
50 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

For those of us ancient enough to recall the Capital's intense thundery downpours of July 1973 and August '75, something about this chart looks disturbing: 30C+, relatively low SLP, and very little wind:

h850t850eu.png Beware of what you wish for!?

Banked it already. Records (like windows, roofing and car windscreens) are there to be broken

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
10 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Banked it already. Records (like windows, roofing and car windscreens) are there to be broken

Just as long as its not record flash flooding in central London, and other valleys. 

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oliverek7 Community Regular

oliverek7

Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
Posted (edited)

Oh boy imagine if this really does come off... Pretty please??  

21C63DB7-ACBF-47C0-AC75-21219934E1FD.jpeg

64BAA2D3-39E4-45BC-B740-8A252C9ACE9D.jpeg

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Oh boy imagine if this really does come off... Pretty please??  

21C63DB7-ACBF-47C0-AC75-21219934E1FD.jpeg

64BAA2D3-39E4-45BC-B740-8A252C9ACE9D.jpeg

It has been showing this in its 5 or 6 previous runs and it's 6 days away... so there definitely is a hint of big storms developing but it's just a matter of when and where

Edited by Zak M
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viking_smb Community Regular

viking_smb

Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Posted
1 minute ago, Zak M said:

It has been showing this in its 5 or 6 past runs and it's 6 days away... so there definitely is a hint of big storms developing but it's just a matter of when and where

it will be corrected east closer to the time.

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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted

Too many days away to get excited, having said that all the ingredients 'should' be there.

If Paul S starts to raise an eyebrow early next week from within the cone of silence then, I will take notice.

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viking_smb Community Regular

viking_smb

Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Posted
10 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Too many days away to get excited, having said that all the ingredients 'should' be there.

If Paul S starts to raise an eyebrow early next week from within the cone of silence then, I will take notice.

might be worth to hear what @staplehurst says about it

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted

GFS going for some rumbles as early as Saturday evening, into Sunday across central, southern and surrounding areas. Disappointed not to see any other models jumping on that.

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Jamie M Accomplished

Jamie M

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Posted

Next week is looking good for some storms but I'm not holding my breath for them.

The amount of times storms have flopped & failed is amazing this year so caution is well needed.

If Paul gets excited from the COS, then I'll be charging up the camera batteries. 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

I will just throw this in here

 

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