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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

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Friday looks tasty, but if I'm being super picky, I'd MUCH prefer it overnight, pretty please!

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1 hour ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

I don't think I have ever seen such a big, consistent spike in the CAPE ensembles! Hopefully as sign of something...

viewimage (2).png

On Wednesday we'll be in the middle of a high, so unless an upper low decides to form, I doubt very much anything will happen, no trigger. 

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38 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

On Wednesday we'll be in the middle of a high, so unless an upper low decides to form, I doubt very much anything will happen, no trigger. 

I agree, and think that the best chance at least in the SE is probably Friday, which is shown by the big spike in the ensembles. In all honesty I don't feel that confident about this week, but that is mainly just a gut feeling.

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32 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

I agree, and think that the best chance at least in the SE is probably Friday, which is shown by the big spike in the ensembles. In all honesty I don't feel that confident about this week, but that is mainly just a gut feeling.

My suspicion right now is that the plume is most likely to destabilise along its northern and western edge (which is really quite common), most probably starting Thursday and then through Friday - most probably regions similarly affected last week. That’s of course unless some sort of feature can destabilise W/NW/N France and we obtain imports that way, or alternatively some form of trough or CZ feature that can destabilise here and develop home growns. Forecast seems very fluid still with big question marks for Friday in particular - currently looking like a 31C day but could easily skip back to a 24C day....

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Hi All,

I just thought | would share three timelapses I did of the storms last week from where I live in Tamworth. The one on the 16th is my favourite.  All are in UHD, enjoy!

Regards

Bryant

 

 

 

 

 

 

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ICON FI run fancying a huge MCS scything West to East across the British mainland on Friday night. Which would be an acceptable way to end the week, to be fair.

9C7C75ED-2838-42D0-89D5-AAFF62E3CB06.png

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Posted (edited)

Although this possible Thursday/Friday event is very far away at the moment, I've got a feeling that if any thunderstorms are forecasted then they will shift further east.

This has happened countless times before and it might happen again... who knows!

Edited by Zak M
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17 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Although this possible Thursday/Friday event is very far away at the moment, I've got a feeling that if any thunderstorms are forecasted then they will shift further east.

This has happened countless times before and it might happen again... who knows!

I can see them corrected more east into east anglia etc I think

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Scandinavia would be a better bet

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Posted (edited)

Now that's a tasty looking Skew-T if it ever stayed like this (with sounding location and dewpoint temps) EL level nice and high too..

gfs_2020062206_102_51.75--1_25.thumb.png.5c6b49017cf43945c615c67f801164c5.png726180092_Locationwithdewpoints.thumb.jpg.bdf0e3aebc750436c689e47ae89b3366.jpg

My area in Norwich not looking so favourable at the moment but as it is far out, we know it's likely to change. At least lets hope if and wherever gets to see storms, they stay potent.

Edit: I should also add, it is GFS and most certainly that is likely buffed to what it is actually going to be. (the impossible chart)

Edited by Greeny
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12 minutes ago, Greeny said:

Now that's a tasty looking Skew-T if it ever stayed like this (with sounding location and dewpoint temps) EL level nice and high too..

gfs_2020062206_102_51.75--1_25.thumb.png.5c6b49017cf43945c615c67f801164c5.png726180092_Locationwithdewpoints.thumb.jpg.bdf0e3aebc750436c689e47ae89b3366.jpg

My area in Norwich not looking so favourable at the moment but as it is far out, we know it's likely to change. At least lets hope if and wherever gets to see storms, they stay potent.

Is there a way I can check for my location? 
 

I’ve missed this convective thread ? I stay away mostly because of jealousy because I never seem to get a storm ? as usual the *potential* is there on the models, but as has already been stated today, the risk will almost certainly be shifted east to avoid most of Scotland.

 

It’s good to be back, however! Happy heatwave ? 

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30 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Is there a way I can check for my location? 
 

I’ve missed this convective thread ? I stay away mostly because of jealousy because I never seem to get a storm ? as usual the *potential* is there on the models, but as has already been stated today, the risk will almost certainly be shifted east to avoid most of Scotland.

 

It’s good to be back, however! Happy heatwave ? 

If you mean with the skew-t, then go onto Pivatol weather, go on forecast models for the UK, I think you can look at any of them to click your location for the chart.

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30 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Is there a way I can check for my location? 
 

Yeah just use Pivotal weather 

sfctd_c.uk.png
WWW.PIVOTALWEATHER.COM

View GFS weather model forecast map image for 2 m AGL Dew Point in United Kingdom on pivotalweather.com.

 

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A lot of CAPE over us for the next few days 
I just hope we can get enough moisture to do something with it 

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

A lot of CAPE over us for the next few days 
I just hope we can get enough moisture to do something with it 

Neither CAPE nor moisture seem to be a problem. It’ll be whether there is a trigger, such as a trough or strong convergence zone to overcome what will be a fairly strong High over much of England and Wales in particular. Interestingly the FAX chart suggests pressure will fall from the south, perhaps a thundery type low, so will need to keep an eye on that ?

Edited by Harry
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32 minutes ago, Greeny said:

If you mean with the skew-t, then go onto Pivatol weather, go on forecast models for the UK, I think you can look at any of them to click your location for the chart.

 

32 minutes ago, Tim said:

 

Yeah just use Pivotal weather 

sfctd_c.uk.png
WWW.PIVOTALWEATHER.COM

View GFS weather model forecast map image for 2 m AGL Dew Point in United Kingdom on pivotalweather.com.

 

Thank you! Is there any easy way to learn to read them, or at least the basic parameters for identifying storms/severe weather?

I’ve added the chart for close to my location for Thursday evening for a bit of context ? 

D7915A2E-DF5E-4809-A78F-48AB983676E7.thumb.png.18d742011c88f8c3f5d88450cbeb8bf7.png

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Well what can I say about Thursday/Friday aye. Very slim risk of an isolated marginally severe SB storm across Wales late Thursday evening (CAPE > 2000 J/KG)

Thurs Night into Fri holds best interest. All dependent on timing of the front moving eastwards. Current thinking is far SW, W Wales into NW England & Southern Scotland best for any elevated lightning activity imo. As many have said typically the risk is corrected eastwards with time and with any plume typically storms form further east within the higher theta-E air so I feel many central areas may do well. Dependent on cloud cover on Fri we may see a few significant SB storms across E Anglia, Lincolnshire into NE England.

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Jff of course ? Arpege 12z scenario illustrates elevated storms crossing the channel early Fri am, before trough arrives late afternoon and triggers SB storms (pushing 19/20c dewpoints away with it).

image.thumb.png.bc8a6ea99a6da081763f3a2164211dcf.pngimage.thumb.png.db08da3b4aff6d49bfc07d2335752601.png

 

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7 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

 

Thank you! Is there any easy way to learn to read them, or at least the basic parameters for identifying storms/severe weather?

I’ve added the chart for close to my location for Thursday evening for a bit of context ? 

D7915A2E-DF5E-4809-A78F-48AB983676E7.thumb.png.18d742011c88f8c3f5d88450cbeb8bf7.png


And a bit more in depth 

skewt_title1.jpg?w=640
WILDCARDWEATHER.COM

When a radiosonde, more commonly known as a weather balloon, is launched, it records a large amount of data. Temperature, dewpoint, and atmospheric pressure are all...

certainly is looking really interesting later in the week, hopefully us Scots can join in on the storm action ?

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Elevated storms on offer here too Fri am, course whatever happens it'll end up being either west cornwall or east kent stealing the show?

image.thumb.png.d8710df48d8edeec7ab882faeefab217.png

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