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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramp

My view of the Bude cell   Edit:excuse the washing

Very impressive lightning display here in Scotland in the early hours. I am just a amateur photographer but I am pleased with what I managed to capture. Here is a selection of all the best ones I got.

Posted Images

Just had a nice small thunderstorm here in Dublin, thanks to Dublin Mts giving it a boost. 

Now having flying ants and birds after heavy rain shower. 

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nothing warms the heart more than the beep of my phone telling me i have a thunderstorm warning, then i see isolated. 

Better than a kick in the nuts but still.

zzzzz

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I'm giving serious conversation to traveling quite far today, as this summer has been a complete dud so far, and might be the only realistic chance of seeing a decent storm.

Also as mentioned in here already, radar might not be that useful, as most of any rainfall will evaporate before reaching the ground, so lightning maps will be your best friend today! 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Curious by this little area to the south of the Channel Islands over France. Looks like a small low forming. I’m probably way off, but could this be a possible trigger for some later convection towards the southern UK coast?

C96AA9F0-F56A-4752-8976-742124068D4E.png

Possibly that's the short wave that Dan H was speaking of..? 

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41 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Curious by this little area to the south of the Channel Islands over France. Looks like a small low forming. I’m probably way off, but could this be a possible trigger for some later convection towards the southern UK coast?

C96AA9F0-F56A-4752-8976-742124068D4E.png

Its probably the Shortwave being mentioned by some forecasters, in which case its a little delayed, if all the way down there now. 

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1 minute ago, sparky1972 said:

sunny, warm but very windy here this afternoon, not sure if that will aid or hamper any chance of a storm today

Not sure, any storm will much higher up than the surface winds, and probably move in a north/nne direction. 

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Dan mentions in his forecast that temperatures will need to be 38c or higher for any surface-based convection. It's 1pm and it's 36c already at Kew Gardens.

This is very interesting and we will have to see what happens during the late afternoon...

Edited by Zak M
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1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Dan mentions in his forecast that temperatures will need to be 38c or higher for any surface-based convection. It's 1pm and it's 36c already at Kew Gardens.

This is very interesting and we will have to see what happens during the late afternoon...

Little-to-no cloud cover too, which was always a worry. Definitely possible that some isolated activity could break out

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10 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Little-to-no cloud cover too, which was always a worry. Definitely possible that some isolated activity could break out

Also an outside chance of the UK Temp record being broken

Edited by James Maidstone
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1 minute ago, James Maidstone said:

Also an outside chance of the UK Temp record being broken

Heating is slowing in London now. 36°C has already been achieved but it is slowing so 38.7°C is not going to be broken.

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 Modelling seems to have made up its mind that there will be little in the way of Storms for the UK today. Looking at the Brest Sounding from last night it suggested that dew-points of 20C and temperatures of 34C would be required to break the CAP. Dew-points that high are most likely out of question but I have noticed a marked difference in dew-points across the country. Heathrow as dew-points at 10C while Cardinham in the south west as dew-points at 18C. Across northern France a lobe of vorticity as sparked of a Storm which is likely to skirt the south east of the UK. We still have a number of low level wind convergence zones and the lobe of vorticity moving north from France. As late afternoon approaches it will still be touch and go whether the CAP goes. Think it is just a case of waiting and watching now.

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nmmukwind15.png

nmmukwind18.png

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Storm food has appears above the worthing skies!

Will we get a storm here today? Of course not. 

 

It's not too hot either! 

 

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19 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

This is what I can see to my south (Christchurch south coast) seems to be developing from what I can see, might come to nothing though

IMG_20200731_133524-01.jpeg

Beautiful. I'll be awaiting the arrival of that here then! We just had a small patch of Cirrus Castellanus go over, some nice tiny towers all the way up there.

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