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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramp

My view of the Bude cell   Edit:excuse the washing

Very impressive lightning display here in Scotland in the early hours. I am just a amateur photographer but I am pleased with what I managed to capture. Here is a selection of all the best ones I got.

Posted Images

A look at the latest Met Office graphics (based off of UKV model), for 13.00, 16.00, 19.00 and 22.00:
 

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Just now, Lance M said:

A look at the latest Met Office graphics (based off of UKV model), for 13.00, 16.00, 19.00 and 22.00:
 

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I'll take that, thanks!

It looks like they have shifted things a bit more west compared to other models.

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9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I'll take that, thanks!

It looks like they have shifted things a bit more west compared to other models.

It'll probably massively change again on the next update, they usually do with storms. I wouldn't put too much stock in it at this time, but all the same, they're fun to look at! If it does end up being accurate, I could have a few rumbles coming through while still working in the afternoon. That'd be a pain but I'd take it over nothing of course!

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29 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

Suddenly we're all excited

Only worth getting cautiously excited on this one if you're to the east of London, so I don't blame you. The rest of us will be very lucky to see anything.

AROME is usually bouyant about storms, but has nothing until the end of the run, albeit that's only 6pm. 

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Been an interesting 12 hours observation! 

If I was to have a punt at the moment, I’d say The Solent to the Wash eastwards is at a substantial risk. A few storms maybe for Yorkshire and N midlands maybe too. 

Somewhere like Kings lynn or North Norfolk would be my target if I was to have a budgeted storm chase! 

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image.thumb.png.1dfcfb461c5744704b5c064f71de46af.png

Estofex having 50% risk of lightning over far SE, moving along the E Coast & into Scotland.

No level 1 or anything.

Writeup:

.. N France, Benelux, W-Germany, Scotland, UK and parts of the North Sea ...

Interaction of a large-scale upper trough over far NW Europe with a N ward fanning MUCAPE plume results in enhanced thunderstorm probabilities over an extensive area with ongoing model discrepancies. Best chances for scattered and elevated nocturnal activity should arise where synoptic-scale lift will be the strongest, e.g. over Scotland and along the E-coast of UK/offshore. Nothing severe is forecast.
Further S/SE, activity is more linked to the cold front and/or a prefrontal wind shift line/convergence zone, so isolated to scattered nocturnal thunderstorms are possible over parts of Benelux and W-Germany. Not a lot of shear to work with so sub-severe activity is forecast with spotty heavy rainfall reports due to slow storm motion.
Of interest is the mentioned IPV max, which crosses the area during the evening and overnight hours. Dependant on its strength, enough background support may assist in the development of smaller and slow moving clusters with heavy rain and isolated hail/strong wind gusts. CAMs hint on that with global models remaining reluctant for now, so just expanded the 50% lightning probability substantially over France and Benelux to account for that possibility.

Edited by Jamiee
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Latest UKV sticking to what it showed earlier with storms across CS England moving NE through the afternoon.

ukvgif.gif

Edited by matt111
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12 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Latest UKV sticking to what it showed earlier with storms across CS England moving NE through the afternoon.

ukvgif.gif

Concerned about any real heat for the south east!!clouds over pretty quickly!!judging from that ukv 12z looks like the real warm temps seem around midlands to east wales?

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Not particularly interested this time around. It looks to be pretty poor.

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25 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Latest UKV sticking to what it showed earlier with storms across CS England moving NE through the afternoon.

ukvgif.gif

Long lunch hour watching storms? Yes please

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30 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Latest UKV sticking to what it showed earlier with storms across CS England moving NE through the afternoon.

ukvgif.gif

NMM 12z following something similar now.

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1 hour ago, matt111 said:

Latest UKV sticking to what it showed earlier with storms across CS England moving NE through the afternoon.

ukvgif.gif

If only...

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Just took a dip in my pool and noticed some Accas-lookalikes to my NE. Storms it is for Norfolk then! :oldrofl:

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