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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Was that the night Poole got the hammering of a century?

Nah two weeks on from it. That was the epic 4th July storm. The 16th, I think the Solent saw some activity briefly, cleared NE and then went barmy when it entered Hertfordshire and Cambridgeshire. 

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This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramp

My view of the Bude cell   Edit:excuse the washing

Very impressive lightning display here in Scotland in the early hours. I am just a amateur photographer but I am pleased with what I managed to capture. Here is a selection of all the best ones I got.

Posted Images

Looking at the soundings and models I just wonder whether any convective activity will be ultra high based (maybe bases above 10k ft), could be almost dry storms with precip evaporating before reaching the surface.  

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2 hours ago, Jamiee said:

image.thumb.png.3da1a3347850f63f18f29ebe2296ee72.png

Kent Clipper on UKV. Actual miracle if it continued on the next run.

Very disappointing, look at all the cloud through the middle of the day as well, max temps will be suppressed. Almost all the models going for wishy/washy convection into the central south by lunchtime ruining the day.  

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31 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Very disappointing, look at all the cloud through the middle of the day as well, max temps will be suppressed. Almost all the models going for wishy/washy convection into the central south by lunchtime ruining the day.  

The second worst plume outcome other than it missing us entirely! I'd settle for the wishy washy convection if it occurred 10-12 hours later than that, but that timing is just awful for many reasons.

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It is too early to really assess the storm potential for Friday, but I can see some potential for storms. These may be French imports or perhaps a sliver of a chance of surface based storms from the Midlands northwards. There are signs of possible high cloud keeping temperatures down which could negate the potential and the CAP looks pretty strong.  Worth keeping an eye on as we lead up to Friday.

 

10m Winds Friday Afternoon.png

Lifting condensation level.png

Interesting Parameters Friday.png

nmmuk3hrprecipFRI18.png

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4 hours ago, Alderc said:

Looking at the soundings and models I just wonder whether any convective activity will be ultra high based (maybe bases above 10k ft), could be almost dry storms with precip evaporating before reaching the surface.  

One of the best storms I witnessed In Bracknell going back 10 years or so during late May was a dry storm constant lightning for 3-4hrs was proceeded by visible virga earlier in the evening.

Edited by Cableguy
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There sure is  very strong capping through Friday afternoon, so even though I know its too early to make assumptions and loom at the details, I am not feeling super excited just given how much of a cap there is.

image.thumb.png.69a57cdfa04bf0c9d6afed1cff33b53b.png 

This is the information bit on the forecast sounding for London at 8 o'clock on Friday Afternoon:

image.thumb.png.71ba40f3b1082a288fe592e05139d724.png

1 CAPE and 360 CIN. It's going to be hard for a storm to form in that 😅😂

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18 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

There sure is  very strong capping through Friday afternoon, so even though I know its too early to make assumptions and loom at the details, I am not feeling super excited just given how much of a cap there is.

image.thumb.png.69a57cdfa04bf0c9d6afed1cff33b53b.png 

This is the information bit on the forecast sounding for London at 8 o'clock on Friday Afternoon:

image.thumb.png.71ba40f3b1082a288fe592e05139d724.png

1 CAPE and 360 CIN. It's going to be hard for a storm to form in that 😅😂

Don't forget that's for surface-based convection - storms on Friday will be largely elevated, and very high-based at that! (10-12,000ft)

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Forecast for here on FRiday dry unbroken sunshine til midday then sunny spells. Beeb sunny until evening when there will be more cloud around. I think Chez will be roasting to medium red.

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1 hour ago, ChezWeather said:

Friday booked off work, I'll enjoy a day of roasting in the sun if the storms don't decide to play ball 

I’ve been off all weeek but working tomo now. If I get Friday off I’m gonna take the paddleboard out and enjoy the rads 😎

Can’t see any major cloud hampering temps though - 32° progged by google weather (not massively trustworthy I know)

It’s still a chance, and I’m used to the naff state of affairs this year for the south so if not why worry, it’s just the way it’s been for months 🤷‍♂️

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I don't think the fat lady needs to take her mask for this one just sunbathe instead.

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EURO4 is now within the timeframe and this is what it's looking like at the end of the run:

euro4_uk1-1-54-0.png

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17 minutes ago, Zak M said:

EURO4 is now within the timeframe and this is what it's looking like at the end of the run:

euro4_uk1-1-54-0.png

Kinda confirming what I've been fearing from this plume over the last couple of days. It's fast becoming a total non-event.

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22 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Another southerly draw next weekend, although standard FI rules apply at this stage

If it comes off then I won't be too bothered about Friday's potential :unknw:

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Wow its quiet in here, I guess the plume has moved into the North sea. Haven't looked, but no posts usually mean bad news. 

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Met not interested in anything here tomorrow afternoon but WRF is keen to initiate precip and has temperatures reaching 30.3° here and 32° a little further inland. around 1000 J/Kg CAPE with -6 LI. 

Winds veer from SSE to WNW in a very short time period similar to 25th June though so although this may act as a trigger it will mean it is  a very small window of opportunity.

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1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

Wow its quiet in here, I guess the plume has moved into the North sea. Haven't looked, but no posts usually mean bad news. 

It's probably the mass amount of uncertainty with anything. It's looking like imports will be the only thing we get out of this. If we get anything at all!

UKV, ARPEGE, EURO4 & ICON all insistent on something crossing the channel or forming. ECM, WRF & AROME have nothing at all.

Wonder what Dan's opinion on all of this is. It's going to be a wait and see thing.

image.thumb.png.e0b08403ab613ec711a3346c70434dc2.png image.thumb.png.eec9b35ee6193dfecc132bda3f36ea14.png image.thumb.png.68ae0f2ed3d6be2d7f258af1b5dc3cbe.png image.thumb.png.f21f55b60039d19421247d30120809dc.png 

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28 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Met not interested in anything here tomorrow afternoon but WRF is keen to initiate precip and has temperatures reaching 30.3° here and 32° a little further inland. around 1000 J/Kg CAPE with -6 LI. 

Winds veer from SSE to WNW in a very short time period similar to 25th June though so although this may act as a trigger it will mean it is  a very small window of opportunity.

I think the risk is more easterly tbh. Thinking bucks and NEwards towards Norfolk. There’s a possibility of some further south too, but really think we are looking at a SLGT at most and even this will be for isolated thunderstorms where the cap can be broken

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