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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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Suns out here in Stoke now.  It almost looks like the eye of a hurricane outside, blue skies above whilst being completely surrounded by massive towering Cumulus, along with some very high, blindingly bright, icy/smooth almost lenticular looking patches of cloud (some of which have the towers beginning to poke their heads through 😄

720299560_IMG_20200727_1434073311.thumb.jpg.d4924032bcc3c357c2e2d98f26f146ea.jpg 75918094_IMG_20200727_1442028601.thumb.jpg.131ad5e9ce0f9caac4271da396b70c27.jpg

Edited by Ryukai
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This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramp

My view of the Bude cell   Edit:excuse the washing

Very impressive lightning display here in Scotland in the early hours. I am just a amateur photographer but I am pleased with what I managed to capture. Here is a selection of all the best ones I got.

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Well this is a disappointment - no lightning anywhere in the UK at the moment according to lightningmaps.com. This will be the first July for years without thunder at all.

Edited by Thundershine
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The large cell that just passed over me, looks like it's going to become very interesting, very soon (though considering how low it is, and the fact it's heading towards the moors, the elevation change might kill it off 😞 ).  Appears to be trying to form a shelf/wall thing, low raggedy well defined front edge sucking up scuds, with the upwards curve behind it.  Got quite windy within a few seconds of the leading edge passing over.  No rain despite what it is showing on the radar (?maybe picking up the really REALLY low scuddy edge?) Ridiculously fast moving, went from horizon to horizon in less that 10 mins. 

Edited by Ryukai
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27 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Ridiculously fast moving, went from horizon to horizon in less that 10 mins. 

The speed of this mornings storms / showers down South was remarkable. A small cell formed around Wells at 06.45 and an hour later had moved to just South of Oxford! Wells to Oxford is around 100 miles!!!!

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My own WXSIM forecast on my website is quite bullish about scattered thunderstorms on Friday. What could possibly go wrong? 🤓

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20 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

My own WXSIM forecast on my website is quite bullish about scattered thunderstorms on Friday. What could possibly go wrong? 🤓

Now you have put the mockers on it😜

gfs gives me 63% chance on Saturday,that will be downgraded to 3% come the time,i hope that i am wrong though.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Nice squally shower just passed overhead and produced some interesting structure along with it.

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88637779-6BEF-401D-9553-F4E8FBFD9B73.thumb.jpeg.738ef0d23b142edcb35cebdd81749a29.jpeg

Edited by Zak M
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Models look terrible now for down here, a few elevated daytime showers Friday and that's it. Knew I got too excited too early! 2020 strikes again. 

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Times reports that today is the 15th anniversary of the Birmingham tornado which carved a path 11km long through King's Heath,Moseley, Balsall Heath and Sparkbrook, and caused £39 million worth of damage as well as injuries to 19 people. The supercell storm and tornado was created as hot and humid air from the tropics collided with colder drier air from the north. Miraculously nobody was killed.  

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54 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Forecast sounding from 00z ARPEGE for Friday afternoon over Cen S England, associated with instability plume arriving from France. Elevated convection rooted from 650mb (cloud bases 12,000ft!). Very dry both aloft and below this level, so precip will likely largely evaporate before reaching ground, and also convection may struggle to maintain itself given how dry it is aloft. Probably why the EC (and most models) look fairly dry with no major rain totals at the surface. This increasing mid-level convective cloud may also impact how high the temperatures reach across southern England on Friday afternoon, for example.

Substantial elevated mixed layer and deeply mixed boundary layer would require surface temps around 40C or higher to develop surface-based storms, and even this assumes a dewpoint of 15C which may be too high - which is a shame, because the wind profile is very nice! 

The whole instability plume will continue to advance NE across Midlands, northern, eastern and southeastern England during Friday afternoon and evening, clearing to the North Sea during the early hours of Saturday. Uncertainty at this stage at how upper forcing will phase with elevated instability, and therefore how widespread any elevated showers/thunderstorms may be. Still a few days away for this to chop and change...

Given these profiles, strongest convection could produce some rather gusty winds / heat bursts.

ARPEGE.png

What's your opinion on French imports Fri into Sat night Dan?

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4 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

 

strong jet stream by midnight right for a spanish plume just hoping the channel won't kill the storms

As usual with a plume its not the channel that kills the storms its the upper atmospheric dynamics, or lack of them that usually means they move into a poorer environment.

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15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

As usual with a plume its not the channel that kills the storms its the upper atmospheric dynamics, or lack of them that usually means they move into a poorer environment.

Recently all the best plumes haven't started in france, but just south of the UK in the channel. 

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Just going through some of the models for Friday night and the GEM is the best of them all

gemeuw-2-78.png

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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Just going through some of the models for Friday night and the GEM is the best of them all

gemeuw-2-78.png

ECM 12z is even worse than it looked yesterday. Does the GEM fair better or worse in these sorts of setups?

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1 minute ago, Lance M said:

ECM 12z is even worse than it looked yesterday. Does the GEM fair better or worse in these sorts of setups?

Not too sure if I'm being honest.

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50 minutes ago, Lance M said:

ECM 12z is even worse than it looked yesterday. Does the GEM fair better or worse in these sorts of setups?

I think in general they all vary in their performance - some handle certain situations better than others, and vice versa. Surface-based convection is easier to verify which models handle it best because ultimately the air parcels are always being lifted from the same level, i.e. the surface (for example GFS has a moisture bias and is too keen on develop convection in capped environments). But when it comes to elevated convection, it all depends on which level you're lifting the air parcel from, how much forcing / moisture is available etc, so it ends up being not a fair comparison between events.

GEM from memory was rather (rightfully) unenthusiastic for the 21st May event (which ended up largely busting), while also had a pretty good handle on the Aberdeenshire MCS several days in advance on Sat 27th June. ICON-EU probably had the best handle on the elevated thunderstorms that affected Northern Ireland and SW Scotland early on Thurs 25th June (most other models were too far east over the mainland initially). In some cases, such as French imports, it almost ends up being a case of following climatology rather than what the models are suggesting...

Edited by staplehurst
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Friday definitely has the potential, but it looks to be one of those ‘blink and you’ll miss it’ type setups. It’s a rather small window for everything to engage perfectly as it erratically sweeps N to more NE as time goes on. Also looks to be getting accelerated to a more evening type event now and earlier part of the night, rather than a 3-6AM event the next morning. The 16th-17th July 2015 event looks rather similar in comparison, which affected Berks, Herts, Cambs and then into Norfolk in the form of a narrow but extremely intense cluster/line of storms. 

Fingers are crossed! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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2 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Friday definitely has the potential, but it looks to be one of those ‘blink and you’ll miss it’ type setups. It’s a rather small window for everything to engage perfectly as it erratically sweeps N to more NE as time goes on. Also looks to be getting accelerated to a more evening type event now and earlier part of the night, rather than a 3-6AM event the next morning. The 16th-17th July 2015 event looks rather similar in comparison, which affected Berks, Herts, Cambs and then into Norfolk in the form of a narrow but extremely intense cluster/line of storms. 

Fingers are crossed! 

Was that the night Poole got the hammering of a century?

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