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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted

A look at the latest Met Office graphics (based off of UKV model), for 13.00, 16.00, 19.00 and 22.00:
 

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
Just now, Lance M said:

A look at the latest Met Office graphics (based off of UKV model), for 13.00, 16.00, 19.00 and 22.00:
 

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I'll take that, thanks!

It looks like they have shifted things a bit more west compared to other models.

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted
9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I'll take that, thanks!

It looks like they have shifted things a bit more west compared to other models.

It'll probably massively change again on the next update, they usually do with storms. I wouldn't put too much stock in it at this time, but all the same, they're fun to look at! If it does end up being accurate, I could have a few rumbles coming through while still working in the afternoon. That'd be a pain but I'd take it over nothing of course!

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted

Now this wasn't there when I last looked

image.thumb.png.4a5c96bb96891286f5c0ffbd68047108.png

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
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Posted (edited)

And here's a gif

ukvgif.gif

Edited by matt111
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BrickFielder Rising Star

BrickFielder

Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
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Posted

 It still looks marginal as to whether storms occur tomorrow. Some models show a hint of surface based storms for Midlands through to Cumbria moving eastwards during the late afternoon. Some show elevated storms developing over the south east of England during the afternoon or surface based imports from the continent.
 Looking at the forecast SkewT's I can see the elevated mixed layer clearly and the suggestion that the CAP goes with temperatures in the low thirties. When I look at the soundings from the continent last night then the CAP goes at higher temperatures. Part of the difference is that over the UK tomorrow low level maritime air begins to undercut the elevated mixed layer and meets the dry continental air along a convergence zone. We should also remember that The UK being closer to the front and jet-stream will tend to alter the propensity for instability.
 Looking at Satellite imagery we can see the first shoots of storm development over Spain and Southern France today. This can be a good or bad omen because it means the air is unstable with higher temperatures but also leaves the possibility of dying storms from the previous day drifting over the UK blocking sunlight. To my eye there is also a thin band of vorticity just ahead of the front out from the coast of Spain.
 Weather models always seem to down grade storm potential and move it eastwards the day before as certain real soundings (continental) rather than satellite guessed soundings come into play.As other real air soundings come into play(Ireland) then there is a tendency to slightly upgrade storm potential overnight before storms and to move things slightly westwards. Based on this hunch about how models perform I am leaning towards storms still happening tomorrow.

smmuk3hrprecip18.png

nmmuk3hrprecip18.png

sound-WestMidlands-36.png

nmmuktempnew.png

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted
29 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

Suddenly we're all excited

Only worth getting cautiously excited on this one if you're to the east of London, so I don't blame you. The rest of us will be very lucky to see anything.

AROME is usually bouyant about storms, but has nothing until the end of the run, albeit that's only 6pm. 

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Been an interesting 12 hours observation! 

If I was to have a punt at the moment, I’d say The Solent to the Wash eastwards is at a substantial risk. A few storms maybe for Yorkshire and N midlands maybe too. 

Somewhere like Kings lynn or North Norfolk would be my target if I was to have a budgeted storm chase! 

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Jamie M Accomplished

Jamie M

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.1dfcfb461c5744704b5c064f71de46af.png

Estofex having 50% risk of lightning over far SE, moving along the E Coast & into Scotland.

No level 1 or anything.

Writeup:

.. N France, Benelux, W-Germany, Scotland, UK and parts of the North Sea ...

Interaction of a large-scale upper trough over far NW Europe with a N ward fanning MUCAPE plume results in enhanced thunderstorm probabilities over an extensive area with ongoing model discrepancies. Best chances for scattered and elevated nocturnal activity should arise where synoptic-scale lift will be the strongest, e.g. over Scotland and along the E-coast of UK/offshore. Nothing severe is forecast.
Further S/SE, activity is more linked to the cold front and/or a prefrontal wind shift line/convergence zone, so isolated to scattered nocturnal thunderstorms are possible over parts of Benelux and W-Germany. Not a lot of shear to work with so sub-severe activity is forecast with spotty heavy rainfall reports due to slow storm motion.
Of interest is the mentioned IPV max, which crosses the area during the evening and overnight hours. Dependant on its strength, enough background support may assist in the development of smaller and slow moving clusters with heavy rain and isolated hail/strong wind gusts. CAMs hint on that with global models remaining reluctant for now, so just expanded the 50% lightning probability substantially over France and Benelux to account for that possibility.

Edited by Jamiee
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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted (edited)

Latest UKV sticking to what it showed earlier with storms across CS England moving NE through the afternoon.

ukvgif.gif

Edited by matt111
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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
12 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Latest UKV sticking to what it showed earlier with storms across CS England moving NE through the afternoon.

ukvgif.gif

Concerned about any real heat for the south east!!clouds over pretty quickly!!judging from that ukv 12z looks like the real warm temps seem around midlands to east wales?

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted
25 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Latest UKV sticking to what it showed earlier with storms across CS England moving NE through the afternoon.

ukvgif.gif

Long lunch hour watching storms? Yes please

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted
30 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Latest UKV sticking to what it showed earlier with storms across CS England moving NE through the afternoon.

ukvgif.gif

NMM 12z following something similar now.

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

The AROME is just laughable...:oldrofl:

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Just took a dip in my pool and noticed some Accas-lookalikes to my NE. Storms it is for Norfolk then! :oldrofl:

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted

new updates show quick build up probably intense thunderstorms

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